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jayb1989

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Everything posted by jayb1989

  1. jayb1989
    So models now starting to firm up more regarding the low pressue. GFS picked the signal up really well yesterday and it appears ECM has moved towards the GFS overnight, with mild air now looking likely to creep into the south, south east. Strange on how a number of people here shot it down yesterday even though there was major agreement within the 6z GFS suite. As things currently stand anyone north of the M4 could be in for a decent event.
  2. jayb1989
    So again the 12z output so far toys with moving the low pressure slightly further north than ideal for some, with the possibility of a snow to rain event south of the M4.. be interesting to see if the ECM holds to its guns of seeing the low less progressive. I think one thing the models are in agreement of is that somewhere is going to get buried come Friday!!
  3. jayb1989
    I know, strange that there are 132 pages on the thread of people giving the GFS the time of day when it shows what they want. But we are crazy to give it the time of day when it doesn’t. It might well be way off on this occasion and i understand it tends to overblow approaching lows against embedded cold air, but it still a notable trend. I’m interested to see the 12z suite.
  4. jayb1989
    Based on the 6z GFSE you would have to be confident of the low moving more north than is probably ideal for the extreme south / south east, due to the agreement shown of increased uppers being dragged in over London? I thought the idea of this thread was to discuss what certain model outputs show? Clearly other models aren’t quite reflecting the same thing, so there has to be an element of doubt when these are factored in.
  5. jayb1989
    I hope you and they are correct as a cold fan. I’m just commenting on the trend as per the GFS 6z, a clear trend at that. Obviously it doesn’t mean it’s correct, but we can’t ignore it either, can we?
  6. jayb1989
    Well certainly there was doubt that the low would even clear North of France on previous days output across all models. We now see pretty much all members of the 6z GFS suggesting milder air being pulled in across London. Based on that output it’s logical to assume a northward push of the low across the UK to some degree? I note this is not shown in the ECM suite however, so we do need to see a few more runs.
  7. jayb1989
    Remarkable consistency in the 6z Ens says everything regarding the low, i think we can safely say with confidence that the low will be pushing further north, how far north is now the key. I suggest there will be a fair amount of rain in the south, flooding could be a major issue as we head into the weekend.
  8. jayb1989
    Yes i think this is a fair middle ground and is about where we will see the low track. North Midlands could see hours and hours of snow. South of Oxfordshire likely to see rain after initial snow. Hopefully the rest of the GFS suite will give us an idea of where this sits.
  9. jayb1989
    Interesting looking at the ECM Spreads, seems a fair few want to take the low further North than was the case yesterday, taking all into account the sweet spot could well be the Midlands, with rain towards the south coast. Obviously still time to change.
  10. jayb1989
    VERY heavy snow here in south west birmingham 154M ASL
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