jayb1989

ECM Op show an alternative solution. Might well be an outlier but will be very pleasent and spring like if it were to come off. The daffs will be out i no time.

I was just reading through the model discussion thread.. like the blind leading the blind in there.. most of them haven’t got a clue, just endlessly chasing day 10 charts as if they are gospel.. half of the folk couldn’t tell you whether it was raining if they were wet through, stood outside and looking up at the sky

Could well be reaching for my t-shirt and shorts if the ECM is anything to go by, brings in a spring like south westerly towards the end of the run. Be interesting to see where it sits in the suite of runs.

Can’t believe there is so much surprise in here this morning. The reality is the cold available was already being watered down on yesterdays output. Anything noteable has been in 10 day range plus now for over a week. The joys of living in a maritime climate mean things are always more likely to go wrong than right, especially when you take into account a warming world.

18Z looking really good Blimey, this used to be a place where people could express an honest opinion about what the charts were showing.. now anyone who points out something that is a realistic issue, they are riff raff!? Do we not have moderators on this forum!?

Again looking like we need to be patient. I think it’s clear that we aren’t seeing any deep cold to tap into again. Plenty of booms going on in here tonight, which is all well and good if you want a chilly wintery period. However, those of us who are more interested in a proper cold spell, i.e snow at all levels that actually sticks around, a dissapointing outlook.

Writing has been on the wall for a few days now for a warm up, this is as conclusive as it gets. Must now look to the SSW to start taking effect, although no guarantee that will yield any cold for the UK. Hopefully things change within the next 2-3 weeks while we still have some proper winter left or it will soon be time to start dusting down the BBQ.

Always amazes me how many people on here who supposedly have decent knowledge of the weather charts, get it wrong. They are totally blinded by their thirst for cold, that it makes them lose touch with reality. Can’t see wood for the trees.

Further disappointing output this morning after we get through the current chilly spell. Those of us who are after noteable cold are forced again to be patient and look ahead. We really need to see changes to the jet over the Pacific. In terms of the SSW, hopefully this also has a positive effect, however it’s far from certain it will lead to a notable cold outcome for the UK.

Really coming down and sticking now just outside Birmingham.

Waste of time all this marginal rubbish, won’t settle even if it does turn to snow. If we get anything Thursday it will all be mush by Friday afternoon. Not sure about anyone else, but unless it’s a proper cold outbreak it don’t interest me these days.

Imagine most are scared to chase another one.. especially after the last one was cruely ripped from us

Here we go again chasing day 10 charts which never seem to verify. The nights are already getting shorter as we start to head towards spring. Just not meant to be this winter.

As suspected, level of cold is being watered down somewhat by todays outputs. Next week now looking cold, but some of the extreme solutions we have been seeing now seem unlikely. Still good signals in the background for other shots at something a bit more extreme. Patience required if like myself you are hoping for something notable and memorable as oppose to average winter cold.

I personally as a cold weather fan am looking for something really cold, as oppose to just cooler and marginal for snow. From looking through GFS and EC spreads this seems to be getting more and more unlikely in the upcoming 12 day period. I’m just hoping we get height rises either around Greenland or Scandanavia as we approach the end of the month (which i believe is possible reading up on background signals and trends). This seems like our best chance of seeing something notable this winter. Here is hoping anyway.

One thing i don’t understand as a newbie, i’ve seen a few people question data input for the GFS on occasions, it seems to me that this is more often than not when the OP run is not showing what people really want.. is there actual data issues?

Tuesday***

You have to admire the consistency of the GFS, sticking to it’s guns again. Looking favourable now that high pressure will be closer to us than the ECM has been showing. I notice Matt Hugo has recently said on twitter he is now favouring the GFS output for early next week as well. Hard not to feel a bit disaapointed.

Well, well, well. Where has that ECM come from then. Hopefully it’s onto something, however i would be suprised if it isn’t an outlier!

How quiet it is in here tells you all you need to know about current output beyond the weekend. In fairness the breakdown has been managed pretty well by GFS in my opinion, it’s always gone with milder air making inroad since early last weekend. Quite baffling how some on here were reluctant to except what model outputs were conclusively showing, choosing to instead believe the cold air would not be as easily moved. It is worth noting that a few runs have hinted at something colder perhaps coming back in at some point, but with March now fast approaching and the really cold air on it’s way out, i for one will be hoping for an early spring. Still a nice event Thursday/Friday and possibly Saturday to enjoy.

Don’t despair Tony, you could well get 20/30 mins of snow on Thursday night before it turns to cold rain.

Morning All, I really think Friday is coming into line nicely now for us to be in a perfect position for us to get a good dumping of snow without it turning to rain. I expect a red metoffice warning to be issues on Wednesday. Untill then showers, with a chance of something a bit more considerable tomorrow. Exciting times!

What about the consistent support for the same thing throughout the GFS members? I think it’s set in stone that milder air will creep in across the south, question is how far north will it push and will we be able to reload cold from the north east!?

It’s clear over the last two days the models have trended to push the low further north and mild air gets into the south. This is something shown in pretty much all outputs not just the GFS.

or maybe he is commenting on what the models quite clearly show? there has been a clear trend of warmer air being dragged up with the low for the very south of the country since yesterdays 6Z ouput. Just looking through the GFS run, really is going to be quite snowy through Thursday/Friday.. Oxfordshire looks a sweet spot, could change slightly.