This is from Kasim, from the North West thread. Hope he doesn't mind me copying it on to here....
Forecast for tonight.
10.30pm to 00.30am -> short lived areas of precipitation producing rain & hail/ sleet and temporary wet snow below 300m with slight snow accumulations above 300m in localized heavier bursts, especislly north of Manchester. Quite lengthy dry periods so the current area over the coast may be one of two.
00.30 to 03.00 -> The second area of precip discussed above will begin to band over the forest of Bowland, M65 and into Keighley, producing wet snow down to 100-150m with accumulations of 1-4cm above 200m in this quite refined area. Elsewhere, very hit and miss beefty sharp showers producing accumulation above 250m, hail / sleet cover possible in heavier bursts below 250m.
03.00 to 06.00 -> The formed streamer discussed above will begin to move south - becoming concentrated and locally heavy through North Manchester & M62. Accumulations above 225m of 1-8cm. Mostly 1-4cm with concentrated areas higher parts of Todmorden moorlands seeing the 6-8cm. Accumulations will be patchy below 225m, however 50% coverage of 0.5 to 3cm can be expected within the streamer east of the m6. West of the m6 ground temps will remain too high. Meanwhile, a secondary coincident streamer may reform over the m65 / Keighley area.
06.00 to 09.00 -> A switch to wnw will progress the main shower focus from north Manchester to south and east Manchester, north and east Cheshire and north Derbyshire. Here a spell of heavy wet snow below 200m will give 40% coverage of 1-3cm, with 60% coverage of 2-4cm likely above 200m. Meanwhile, the showers sourcing the streamer will provide periodic accumulations of hail / sleet west of the M6 with the risk of thunder. At this time, showers over the m65 / into north of region will be becoming less organised so will loose the risk of accumulation to lower levels, however above 250m a further topup will occur.
09.00 - 12.00. By this time the trough out west will slow wind speeds allowing for a heavy slow moving stream of showers to develop over the Macclesfield / Buxton area producing further accumulations of 2-6cm above 275m asl. Below this altitude, 50% coverage of wet snow and temporary accumulation is expected through north / east Cheshire. Further north, scattered wintry showers producing very scattered slight accumulations of sleet / hail / trace snow amounts.
