BornFromTheVoid

An interesting piece on how the "scientists were predicting global cooling in the 70s" meme came to be. The rest in here http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-the-global-cooling-story-came-to-be

Neutral ENSO conditions have shifted slightly more negative in the latest update. We remain on -ve values with the strong subsurface warmth of the last few months failing to make it to the surface, and is now weakening. The forecasts are still generally in favour of a developing a warm ENSO phase, but the forecasts have been suggesting that for most of the last year, so they're not too reliable. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I'd expect ENSO to remain on the negative side of neutral for the next month or so at least.

December had the 8th largest snow cover on record for the northern hemisphere, with Eurasia at 20th largest and North America at 7th. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1#nhland

I think you have the answer for that yourself Stew!

Unfortunately Keith, and to the disappointment of fake sceptics world over, the satellite record was shown to have numerous flaws which produced a cool bias. Once this was fixed, it was very much in line with the surface warming. Infact, since 1998, the UAH satellite record (run by Dr Christy and Dr Spencer, two prominent "sceptics") has had a stronger warming trend than most surface station records.

The combined November and December 2013 AO was the 2nd most positive on record, behind just 2011.

CET should be at about 7.1C, possibly 7.0C on tomorrows update. After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at 7.2C to the 8th (7.8] 7.3C to the 9th (8.1) 7.1C to the 10th (5.5) 6.7C to the 11th (3.2) 6.3C to the 12th (1.7) 6.1C to the 13th (3.9) 5.8C to the 14th (2.0) Looks like we could hit the monthly peak on the 9th. Here's how the current provisional CET values and the forecast values above compare to the historical records.

2013 was the 2nd warmest year on record, since 1890, according to the JMA http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html December appears to have been around the 11th or 12 warmest.

Extent now lowest on record for the current date on IJIS/JAXA http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

Just looking at the stats for the winter CET so far (Dec 1st to Jan 6th) and we're currently the 12th mildest since 1772 for that period, averaging 6.5C. Here's the top 13 years 1.... 1975.... 8.0C 2.... 1935.... 8.0C 3.... 1853.... 7.6C 4.... 1989.... 7.3C 5.... 1869.... 7.1C 6.... 1834.... 6.8C 7.... 1844.... 6.8C 8.... 1899.... 6.8C 9.... 1925.... 6.7C 10.... 2007.... 6.7C 11.... 1829.... 6.7C 12.... 1913.... 6.6C 13.... 2014.... 6.5C If we maintain the 6.5C average to the 10th of this month, we'll reach the top 10 mildest since 1772.

Hi MIA. I wasn't trying to show anything either way, just the averages, as they can be better compared to the scientific consensus on CO2 warming alone (1.2C) and climate sensitivity (3.0C)

Historical trends in the jet streams We found that, in general, the jet streams have risen in altitude and moved poleward in both hemispheres. In the northern hemisphere, the jet stream weakened. In the southern hemisphere, the sub-tropical jet weakened, whereas the polar jet strengthened. Exceptions to this general behavior were found locally and seasonally. http://www.ceoe.udel.edu/File%20Library/Our%20People/Profiles/carcher/My_Papers/Archer_Caldeira_GRL_2008.pdf

Many reasons have been suggested (and some evidence gathered) for the sea ice increases, not just salinity changes. Does it even matter to you if there's evidence or not anyway? You've shown time and time again that you simply dismiss anything that doesn't suit your position, such as ocean heat content increases, the fact that the IPCC work is done for free, that Michael Manns work is sound and supported by dozens of other studies, etc. Anyway, if you want to discuss maritime law and your hopes that the people stuck on the ship were left to freeze to death (Christian morals eh), perhaps you should take that stuff elsewhere?

From Tramore https://www.facebook.com/Irelandsweather

Some impressive pics from Tramore, in Co. Waterford. https://www.facebook.com/Irelandsweather

Update for the week to January 4th The current 1 day extent is 13,220,090km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,039,250km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -698,390km2, an increase from -657,100km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +22,517km2 a change from -12,440km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week. The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +54.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +60.1k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +56.3k/day. The average long term increase over the next week is +44.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +54.0k/day. The increase for the first 4 days of January is by far the largest on record. For the largest total January gain on record, a daily average of at least 48.5k/day is required for the rest of the month, with the smallest gain requiring 14.7k/day or less. The gain for December 2013 was the 9th lowest on record

Sorry for the break last week, just a bit busy during the festive period! Anywho, update for the week to December 28th The current 1 day extent is 12,840,700km2, while the 5 day mean is on 12,639,830km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -657,100km2, a decrease from -821,590km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 is at -12,440km2, a change from -69,810km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 3rd last week. The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +69.5k/day, compared to the long term average of +45.0k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +56.3k/day. The average long term increase over the next week is +60.1k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +58.8k/day. The gain so far this December is the 14th lowest on record. To record the largest December gain, a daily increase of 377.2k/day or higher is required. The lowest gain requires a loss of at least -101.4k/day.

Highest it has ever been? Clowns? Propaganda arm? You're not usually the one to accept that kind of tabloid exaggeration and sensationalism, Stew?

With a minimum today of 0.8C and maxima likely to reach close to 10C later this evening, we should see a drop to about 6.6C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 7.0C to the 6th (9.0) 7.2C to the 7th (8.2) 7.3C to the 8th (7.7) 7.0C to the 9th (4.8] 6.8C to the 10th (4.9) 6.7C to the 11th (5.9) 6.8C to the 12th (7.8] A potentially very mild day tomorrow, but still well below any daily records.

For those that believe the extra sea ice in Antarctica is related to cooler temperatures, the UAH global temperature report for December and 2013 http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2013/december/dec2013GTR.pdf The warmest areas during the year were over the North Pacific and the Antarctic, where temperatures for the year averaged more than 1.4 C (more than 2.5 degrees Fahenheit) warmer than normal.

The mean extent for 2013, based on the NSIDC data, was 10,902,870km2. This is the 7th lowest on record. The lowest 10 2012:... 10.3826262 2007:... 10.46029748 2011:... 10.46472296 2010:... 10.69067742 2006:... 10.75473381 2005:... 10.88583603 2013:... 10.90286608 2009:... 10.91535493 2008:... 10.95861352 2004:... 11.22460022

A nice morning here, blue skies, cool and calm, a change from recent days.

At +0.24C, 2013 is the 4th warmest year on record, behind 2005 (+0.26), 2010 (+0.40) and 1998 (+0.42), according to the UAH data. It also appears to be the warmest ENSO neutral year on record. EDIT: PDF report of the above http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2013/december/dec2013GTR.pdf

Latest UAH data is out, and December had an anomaly +0.265C, making it the 2nd warmest December on record after 2003 (+0.37). That puts 2013 at +0.24C the 4th warmest year on record, behind 2005 (+0.26), 2010 (+0.40) and 1998 (+0.42). It also appears to be the warmest ENSO neutral year on record. EDIT: PDF report of the above http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2013/december/dec2013GTR.pdf

Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann on the recent Sherwood et al paper that suggests models with lower ECS don't match observations as well. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/a-bit-more-sensitive/