BornFromTheVoid

It's the same chart as my highlighted one CC! It's also the only winter month to score a 5 since the January anomaly from the November 13th run! So far, I have to say that the CFS hasn't shown itself to be of much use, but there's plenty of time for that to change

I think any thread based on science is anti-Watts by definition!Conveniently mixing up sea and land ice again, and references to the Arctic with Antarctica... I wonder if the trend since 98 is statistically significant, or can we start claiming no sea ice growth in 16 years!?

Perhaps it's best not to jump to conclusions when we can't find things?Are you referring to this? http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/?p=2843929

Doubt it. The Malin Head record is 16.8C for December, and that's quite close to you. http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/extreme_maxtemps.pdf

If only!

Latest CFS blocking update. The charts are explained here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211 Below is the latest January chart, with the daily values in blue, 10 day mean in red and trend in black The last 7 days have averaged 1 (weak blocking), with 4 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 showing -ve and 1 neutral (previous week was 1.1, with 4 +ve, and 3 -ve). The 10 day mean has taken a sharp downturn recently, hitting a low of 0.1 on the 5th. This has risen slightly with a few blocked runs in recent days, but the long term trend is very much negative. Below is the latest February chart. The last 7 days averaged -0.4 (neutral to weak low pressure anomalies) with 3 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north and 4 runs showing -ve anomalies (previous week was 1.7 with 6 +ve and 1 neutral). Like January, February has seen a strong downturn recently, with the 10 day mean reaching a low of 0.2 on the 10th, producing a strong downward trend in the long term. Highlights from the last week The Best Chart (best I've seen all year!) The Worst

I'll give an update on the CFS blocking trends tomorrow, but so far, it's looking like it got December completely wrong. Anyway, I thought I'd have a look at some late December mild to cold CET switch arounds from recent years. Year: 1st to 20th: 21st to 30th: Difference 2000: 7.9C 2.0C 5.9C 1992: 5.5C 0.0C 5.5C 1985: 8.2C 2.8C 5.4C 1979: 7.7C 2.5C 5.2C Some historical examples 1772: 7.0C 0.7C 6.3C 1820: 6.8C 1.0C 5.8C 1831: 7.8C 2.1C 5.8C

Minimum today is 2.3C while maxima look like being near 7C, so a decrease to 6.6C is likely tomorrow. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 6.6C to the 12th (6.9) 6.7C to the 13th (8.3) 6.8C to the 14th (7.1) 7.0C to the 15th (9.8] 7.1C to the 16th (9.5) 6.9C to the 17th (4.0) 7.0C to the 18th (7.7) December now shifting into the very mild category methinks. I wouldn't say a 6C+ CET is likely quite yet. If we were on 7.0C to the 18th, just 5 days averaging 0C would send us back down to 5.5C, not to mention the inevitable end of month corrections. Anyway, the month so far compared to historical averages and extremes, with the above daily CET forecast.

2006 had the most +ve AO for December, at +2.282, just ahead of 2011 at 2.221 2011 also had the strongest +ve AO for November and December combined (which surprised me a bit). December this year would have to be near +1.7 to beat 2011. It's averaged close to +1 say far this month I'd say, but with the forecast going for some very +ve values, I certainly wouldn't bet against beating 2011.

The level of projection that goes on with science/anti-science debates can be impressive. I haves climate racist and science bully on my own CV.

Most peer reviewed papers, especially new ones, are behind paywalls, Mike. Usually we have to make do with the abstracts and reviews of the papers, which is very often the case on this forum when it comes to the latest research. Surprised you hadn't noticed this?

Update for the week to December 7th The current 1 day extent is 11,673,490km2, while the 5 day mean is on 11,698,430km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -674,250km2, an increase from -549,740km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has increased from +349,753km2 to +216,477km2 this week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 8th last week. The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +75.1k/day, compared to the long term average of +92.9k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +103.2k/day. The average long term increase over the next week is +63.1k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +70.6k/day. The gain so far this December is the 7th lowest on record. To record the largest December gain, an daily increase of 95.8k/day or higher is required. The lowest gain requires 36.0k/day or less.

Minimum today of 5.5C, while maxima look like reaching above 10.5C, so an an increase to 6.5C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 6.7C to the 9th (8.3) 6.6C to the 10th (5.6) 6.5C to the 11th (4.9) 6.4C to the 12th (6.0) 6.6C to the 13th (9.1) 6.8C to the 14th (8.9) 7.0C to the 15th (9.1) A fairly mild start, a small risk of reaching the 25 mildest first 15 days (requires 7.3C to the 15th). Here's how we compare to the daily extremes and averages from 1772-2012, the provisional CET data is yellow and forecast from the GFS in orange No very mild days yet, but a few are forecast for late next week.

So, which of the generic Anything But Carbon dismissals will be used for this? It's just conjecture â–¡Something to do with grant moneyâ–¡Lefty propaganda â–¡Shifting goalposts â–¡Something to do with the hockey stick â–¡Global Warming stopped in '97, '98, '05, '10 â–¡Al Gore â–¡Other â–¡All of the above â–¡Or maybe a self proclaimed AGW sceptic will carefully review the article and produce a thorough, science and evidence based rebuttal?

Try to remember, that many of these maps show concentration and extent. The extent just means 15% or more sea ice coverage, while concentration has a range of coverage values which you can see on the colour scale. Even if it did reach the Iceland coast on these charts, it would just be bits of floating ice, not an ice bridge as such, and would have no meaningful effect on their weather. The distance between the sea ice and Iceland coast isn't particularly unusual at the moment either. Have a look through the archive images here http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/archive.html

No ice bridge yet

2nd most positive November AO on record. The only time the November AO was more positive.... 1978.

But they haven't missed that either. Lots of research has been done and is currently being done on the effects of solar activity, with the Met Office being at the forefront, especailly investigation the impact of UV fluctuations. In their report on the slowdown, they say It is not possible to explain the recent lack of surface warming solely by reductions in the total energy received by the planet, i.e. the balance between the total solar energy entering the system and the thermal energy leaving it. Indeed, if we do see cooling on a climatological scale, then the influence of CO2 will certainly have to be reassessed. But for now, short term fluctuations in surface air temperatures say nothing either way about the validity of AGW, as there are many things which have a much bigger influence in the short term than CO2. In a similar way, if we see a warming trend in the CET over the next two weeks, it doesn't cast doubt of the theory of seasons or how they influence temperatures, it just shows that on short timescales variability in the weather can dominate over seasonal cooling.

They didn't say the PDO. There is more going on in the Pacific than that, ENSO, IPO etc. Before the AGW, they would have caused slight warming and slight cooling, but, because of us, it's either fast warming or slow warming. It's nice to see you now admit that we've only seen a slowdown in surface air warming though, shows your not completely incapable of changing your opinion

Latest CFS update, explanation for the charts can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211 Below is the January chart, daily values are the blue bars, 10 day mean in red and trend in black. The last 7 days have averaged averaged 0.4 (neutral to weak blocking), with 3 runs showing positive SLP anomalies, 4 runs showing negative and none showing neutral (previous week averaged 1.1, with 5 positive, 2 negative and no neutral). There's been a sharp downturn in the last few days, with the 10 day mean at its lowest point of 0.1, which suggests a lot of uncertainty with January's forecast. Below is the February chart, starting from October 1st. The last week averaged 1.1 (weak blocking), with 5 positive runs, 1 negative and 1 neutral. The previous week averaged 0.7, with 5 positive and 2 negative runs. Like other months I've looked at, the CFS has suggested mainly +ve SLP anomalies to our north over the last few months, but with a negative trend overall. Here are some highlights from the last while. The Best The Worst

UAH data is out for November, and it was +0.19C above average, the joint 9th warmest since 1979. This makes January to November 2013 the joint 4th warmest on record so far.

Just saw this, from Sheffield apparently

Yup, looks like the 500hPa Autumn cooling from 1998 to 2011 is still there, but less strong on the NCEP data (-0.6C over 14 year using the timeseries data here) than the GISTEMP and radiosonde (-1C) data used in the study, but still within the margin of error. The 925hPa warming is very different, +1.8C over 14 years with the NCEP reanalysis and just +0.3C from obs.

NSIDC extent now 12th lowest on record, ahead of the 99-03 average.

Reached 11.2C about an hour ago, now down to 9.6C... certainly no chance of seeing snow here. Bit of a north south split at the moment!