BornFromTheVoid

Update for the week to November 30th The current 1 day extent is 11,147,580km2, while the 5 day mean is on 10,966,370km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -549,740km2, a decrease from -671,980km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has increased from +250,010km2 to +349,753km2 this week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, compared to 7th last week. The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +92.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +74.7k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +70.2k/day. The average long term increase over the next week is +92.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +103.2k/day. The increase this November was the 14th largest on record.

The minimum today was probably close to 4.5C, while maxima look like reaching above 9C, so something around 7C to the first is likely. After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at 5.6C to the 2nd (4.2) 5.2C to the 3rd (4.5) 5.4C to the 4th (5.9) 5.2C to the 5th (4.4) 4.2C to the 6th (-1.1) 3.4C to the 7th (-1.4) 2.8C to the 8th (-1.1)

Here's how the Autumn and individual months compared to some different averages Month.............. 61-90.......... 71-00....... 81-10........... 1901-00...... 1659-2012 September........ +0.1............ 0.0.............-0.3.................+0.2.............+0.4 October............ +1.9............+2.1............+1.8................+2.3.............+2.8 November......... -0.3.............-0.7............-0.9.................-0.3..............+0.1 Autumn.............+0.5............+0.5............+0.2................+0.7...............+1.1

Writing a book in order to byass peer review now makes someone qualified? Does that include Monkton?

Can you give me some links to the WWF or Greenpeace research that the IPCC used? I would indeed take the same stance. Once it's peer reviewed by a reputable journal

What research is that SI? Besides, shouldn't the quality of the research, not who conducted it, be the thing that matters?

So incompetent and uninformed that they think they know and understand everything?

I think you might like this page https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

More of this unfortunate and all too common anti-science mindset here http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/nov/28/global-warming-deniers-guilty-of-attack-on-science/

The ice has been doing well in recent days, but that's no cause for exaggeration, 2004 isn't even on the chart, and how on earth can you tell if it's above or below 2005 and 2008? Somewhere between highest and 4th highest in the last decade certainly doesn't sound as good though... I thought you would have been all over that kind of misrepresentation and exaggeration, Stew!? Anywho, on today's DMI chart things are looking better again and clearly above 2005 and 2008. On IJIS we've gained over 520k in the last 4 days, and NSIDC has jumped over 430k in the last 3 days. Looks like Hudson Bay is providing quite a boost in the last few days and with the cold remaining there over the next 4 days at least, this boost may continue. Elsewhere the gains have been more modest, the Atlantic side doing slightly better than last year, but still below average. The Pacific side meanwhile is off to a slow start, especially compared to recent -ve PDO years.

The 06z GFS op run has the CET at about 3.5C to the 6th, just as the cold arrives...

6.6C to the 28th http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013 Yesterday was 8.5C. Minimum today is 6.6C, while maxima look like reaching the high 9s (mean around 8.2), so remaining on 6.6C on tomorrows update. The 06z GFS op run has the final day at about 5.0C, so likely to remain on 6.6C. After corrections, anything from 6.1 to 6.5C is possible it seems.

No point getting too excited for something that far away, it will have changed on the next run.

06z GFS looking pretty good after a tasty ECM. The trend in clearly there now, which is the important thing when looking for cold spells at 5+ days away.

We've see an upper ridge gradually push north from the end of October/early November, bringing mild conditions at first and gradually more settled and cooler conditions during the month. Below is the 500hPa geopotential height anomalies in 7 day averages, and shows the progression of the upper ridge which is currently dominating our weather. Now that the ridge has reached out to our west and toward southern Greenland, I think this may become a strong feature of the next few weeks, with repeated ridging toward Greenland and the potential of opening the northerly floodgates. Indeed, the ECM shows the ridge never moving too far from it's mid Atlantic/southern Greenland position, right out to the end of the run t0 ............................................. ................................ t72 t144 ........................ .................... ........................ t216 The 8-10 day mean height comparison shows the situation well, with the GFS not too dissimilar to the ECM The CFS has reaffirmed it's prediction of moderate blocking to our north in December, too, which further backs up the cold spell potential. (explanation for the chart below is here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211) Let the individual runs do what they will do, and keep an eye on the broader picture. As long as we maintain the ridge nearby, but especially close to Greenland (and the polar vortex remains away from Greenland) the potential for northerlies remains strong imo.

Laptop issue, and generally being out of the house a lot over the last few weeks has prevented these updates from being as regular as I'd like. Hopefully I'll have the time to update this more regularly from now on. Update for the December and January 12z CFS trends. (explanation for the charts can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211) The 12z CFS data for the 23rd doesn't seem to be available, but it shouldn't matter too much. Below is the latest December chart, the daily values in the blue bars, 10 day mean in red and trend in black. The last 7 days have averaged 1.4 (between weak and moderate blocking to the north), with 5 runs showing positive sea level pressure anomalies, 1 showing negative and showing neutral. (the previous 7 days were exactly the same). It would appear that, despite a downward trend over the whole chart, we've seen the forecast northern blocking increase since the end of October, from weak to moderate levels of blocking. The CFS is then currently hinting a moderate level of blocking to our north in December. Below is the chart for January The last 7 days have averaged 1.3, with 5 runs showing positive anomalies, 1 negative and 1 neutral (the previous 7 days were 2.7, with 5 positive, 1 negative and 1 neutral). The 10 day mean for January has remained remarkably consistent rarely moves far from the moderate blocking category. In the last 65 runs, 74% have suggested +ve SLP anomalies to our north in January. Here are some highlighted charts from the last while Best Novemer 13th 12z CFS Worst November 26th 12z CFS

Anyone know where I can get the 12z CFS data from the 23rd? Doesn't seem to be on the meteociel site

The odd year has shown a large slow down in early November but the growth from the 1st to the 8th is still 61k/day on average (79-11), but the growth this year from the 1st to the 8th was the smallest on record at 3.3k/day. Stretching it out to the 1st to 13th, it was still second lowest on record. So I don't think it was following any normal pattern.

Latest November sea ice extent based on the NSIDC data We've had a very good rebound from the slow start, but still not enough to raise this year above the 6th lowest on record.

Such differing methods, but the same result, suppose it can only be a good thing!

Update for the week to November 23rd The current 1 day extent is 10,502,100km2, while the 5 day mean is on 10,328,510km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -671,980km2, a decrease from -949,470km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has increased from +145,013km2 to +250,010km2 this week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 5th last week. The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +103.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +63.6k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +77.1k/day. The average long term increase over the next week is +74.7k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +70.2k/day. The increase so far this November is the 16th smallest on record. To record the largest November gain in total, an average daily increase of 184.8k/day is required for the next 7 days. To record the smallest November gain, an daily average of -42.9k/day is required.

Cheers BFTP. I just think that we'll see more in the way of ridging toward Greenland in December, rather than a high extending down from the Arctic. I'd generally the Winter 500hPa GPH composite anomalies over the Arctic with a pinch of salt when they include many recent years, just because the 500hPa level has lifted in general over the last decade and my skew the composite maps for the region a little.

Cheers CC. What method have you been using for your own forecasts?

Yesterday was 2.5C. Min today is 0.9C, while maxima look like reaching about 7C, so a drop to 6.6 or 6.7C is likely tomorrow. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 6.5C to the 25th (2.8] 6.3C to the 26th (2.4) 6.3C to the 27th (5.7) 6.3C to the 28th (7.1) 6.4C to the 29th (6.7) 6.3C to the 30th (5.9)