BornFromTheVoid

Here's how the daily mean CET values compared with the daily mean extremes, 1772-202 and 61-90 averages. No days recorded below the 1772-2012, and only 1 day below the 61-90 average, Christmas day (4.2C compared to the 4.3C average).

Agreed, the situation certainly involves numerous factors. Happy new year!

A video to accompany the new study, featuring the lead author.

But that's not the case SI. For example, you could see SSTs increase, but a decrease in salinity would still encourage extra ice formation as ice could then form at a higher temperature. Or, you could go from a situation where the ice is kept close to the continent by the wind, only for the wind to shift a blow the ice outwards. As the water near Antarctica will quickly refreeze forming new ice, extra ice gets blown away from the continent, increase extent. This could also happen with warming. There are lots of things which can cause extra ice formation, regardless of temperature. Things can be complicated, otherwise, we'd have figured it all out already!

Do you think air temperatures matters? Or what about the salinity of the water and how that changes the freezing point. What about ridging and thickness? Winds driving ice outward from the continent? Don't you think any of those have a big effect on sea ice? The logic is beginning to drift towards this type, "all the stars, the sun and the moon appear to go around us, so we must be the centre of the universe".

I shall sink with my Winter forecast, so 3.0C for me thanks.

Smithy, I don't think you're in a position to complain about exaggeration! Many flights were diverted, many pilots required multiple attempts to land. Nothing wrong with people finding that interesting. The winds were stronger in the south for once, for many places it was the worst storm since 1997. 10s of thousands we left without power, hundreds of trees were knocked onto roads, areas were flooded, homes were damaged, part of the CUH roof came off. I t was a strong storm and fascinating to follow.

Great noisy storm so far. Had a quick car journey to pick up my sister from work, 2 downed trees, flooding and countless branchs down along the 5km route.

Lots of tree down, flooding and power outages spreading across Ireland now. Lights flickering here. Damage to the roof of Cork University Hospital https://mobile.twitter.com/GardaTraffic

Already quite lively here, sounds wonderful! With 9 hours to go until they peak, it should be an interesting night.

Got the same messages 5 minutes ago. Going fine atm.

Heavy rain and blustery winds in south Tipperary. A complete switch from dry, calm and blue skies about 3 hours ago.

Use the url given under the "share" tab, below the video.

Hope everyone had a good xmas day. The frost certainly made it feel very festive here Yep, I'd say it's just a mistake, parts of Cork could have the worst winds. Action starting shortly after 3pm today, with wind reaching their peak at 3am tomorrow Might have to stay in for drinks tonight!

A minimum today of -0.8C, with maxima likely to reach above 6C, so tomorrow should see a drop to 6.6C. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 6.6C to the 27th (6.2) 6.5C to the 28th (4.9) 6.4C to the 29th (2.5) 6.4C to the 30th (6.0) 6.4C to the 31st (7.0)

NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent now down to 2nd lowest for the time of year

A few temperature records broken during the current mild spell, and more likely to fall today. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/eastern-warm-ahead-record-breaking-temperatures-new-york-city-washington-dc-atlanta-20131218

Update for the week to December 21st The current 1 day extent is 12,353,910km2, while the 5 day mean is on 12,268,420km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -879,620km2, an increase from -704,580km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 is at -69,810km2 a decrease from 259,087km2, and below them for the first time since April. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, compared to 5th last week. The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +28.5k/day, compared to the long term average of +53.3k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +51.5k/day. The average long term increase over the next week is +45.0k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +56.3k/day. The gain so far this December is the 6th lowest on record. To record the largest December gain, a daily increase of 179.8k/day or higher is required. The lowest gain requires 20.3k/day or less.

So after 25 votes it seems that 96% believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas. The average votes for warming from CO2 alone is 1.1C (using the middle value for each category, 0 for no warming and 3C for >2.5C) The average votes for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is 2.1C. .

Sleety hail shower just passed. Closest to snow I've seen away from the mountains this winter!

Minimum today of 5.3C with maxima likely to reach around 7C, so the CET should drop to 6.8C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 6.8C to the 23rd (6.5) 6.8C to the 24th (5.3) 6.6C to the 25th (3.9) 6.5C to the 26th (3.7) 6.5C to the 27th (6.4) 6.5C to the 28th (5.8] 6.4C to the 29th (3.8]

Below is the January CET from 1659 to 2013, with the 10 year mean in red and linear trend in black. The correlation between the December and January CET is the 4th strongest of any consecutive monthly pair, at +0.36. This means that, more than most other months, that cool Decembers tend to be followed by cool Januaries and mild by mild. December looks likely to finish somewhere between 5.4 and 6.4C. So the average January following Decembers in that range, is 4.1C. The current run without a January CET lower than 0C (34 years) is the 3rd longest on record, the 2nd longest was 40 years (1839 to 1878) and the longest was 58 years (1882 to 1939). The current run with the 10 year mean CET above 4C (22 years) is the longest on record, with the 2nd longest being 20 years (1920 to 1939), and the 3rd longest being 8 years (1973 to 1981). The current run without a CET greater than 7C (92 years) is the 2nd longest on record, with the 3rd longest being 81 year (1835 to 1935) and the longest being 137 years (1659 to 1795)

Sorry Styx. I kept the options in Q2 quite low because it is generally accepted that a doubling CO2 alone (without feedbacks) would only amount to a 1C temperature increase. It isn't something that's really debated these days. Climate sensitivity including other feedbacks is the one with the wide range of possibilities, with the IPCC claiming the most likely range is 1.5 to 4.5C, with a few studies going much beyond those values. Large degrees of warming from CO2 requires feedbacks, such as water vapour increases, ice-albedo, increased methane, etc.

The link between CO2 and temperature is well established. What isn't, are the subsequent feedbacks. 1.5 to 4.5C sensitivity is still a pretty big range, and so narrowing it down will help with deciding what kind of mitigation might be necessary. Besides, not every study requires huge amounts of grant money. Simply applying a new statistical analysis method to freely available data won't always take lots of time and money

Latest CFS update, chart explanation can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211 Below is the January chart, with daily values in blue, 10 day mean in red and trend in black. The last 7 days averaged 0.4 (neutral SLP or weak blocking), with 3 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 -ve and 2 neutral. The previous 7 days averaged 1.3, with 4 +ve, 2 -ve and 1 neutral. The forecasts over the last while have been very mixed, some with strong blocking, some with very zonal patterns and everything in between. Uncertainty seems to be the forecast for January at this stage. Below is the latest February chart. The last 7 days have averaged 0.3 (neutral), with 2 +ve runs, 3 -ve and 2 neutral. The previous 7 days averaged -0.3, with 3 +ve, 4 -ve and 0 neutral. There has been more CFS runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north than +ve over the last 2 weeks, a big change compared to the previous 8 weeks which very much suggested more blocking. Chart Highlights The Best The worst