[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

If I had a penny for every time the gfs made too much of a lp system...

A bit of a downer for the South if for once it's right, but bloody hell anyone who's been around here for any length of time must realise it's still an outside bet?

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

What an impressive sight the encroaching cold on this morning's data is. Just 48 hours or so until landfall.

So Met update now extended to Wed and brings most of the country into the equation. Even the assorted automated forecasts are starting to grasp the nettle in terms of precip, although chocolate teapots!

Incidentally a stunning day here with the odd gust of cold air. Pretty bracing already to be honest. 

I expect some ambers on the warning maps come Monday! 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

GFS has form for overblowing lows, so I wouldn't put too much stock in the track of that system. Expect that to correct southwards.

 

 

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

50 minutes ago, John Michael How said:

But haven't mid Essex already done well in December etc we'e not had any in 5 years. The thing with your location is you can still do ok from Northerlies unlike south of Essex and my part of NW kent

Yes we did well in December, but Northerlies are useless for us generally. The more Northerly component to the flow the less likely we'll be in the firing line.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

In reply to the poster that asked about where streamers affect with what vector wind - I did find the archive but it wont let me link it as its so old and dusty, anyway the following is a guide.

NNE - Places in Jackpot zone would include Coastal Norfolk, Coastal Suffolk and Kent into Sussex east of a line from Whitstable/Faversham through Ashford down to East of Hastings, the Jackpot zone usually is Hawkinge to Lenham.

NE - See above but can also affect places 15-20 miles inland from Coasts of Suffolk, Norfolk, Essex and also push a little further west along the Sussex and Kent Coasts as well. A strong enough Flow can penetrate showers into the Greater London area

ENE - Thames Estuary Streamer. Affects areas from Clacton down to Isle of Sheppey through Maidstone and SE Essex and Thames Corridoor, also affects NE London to a point and crosses the Thames at Dartford into SE London.

ESE - This is an interesting one as it affects most of Kent and the Southern side of the Thames Estuary and places In NW london and Herts do very well.

From Steves chart above from ECM @ 120 showing an ESE Streamer would be very happy if living in Herts, Bucks etc

It's a bugger being here in Chelmsford sometimes especially in a NE'ly - watching the showers just fizzle out as they get here!

Think we're OK this time though lol.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 is an epic unstable SE flow

streamers almost anywhere - lots of troughy wavey lines

South coast takes a battering-

Also Frame this one to show the kids !

s

3

Looks like that could be a better result for this region as a whole in terms of everyone getting in on the action, Steve? Not that it was a bad result to start with!

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Another advance on the 12z's inbound? 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Just now, Snowflake Queen said:

I’m really struggling to see how anyone can say how much snow we MAY get ? Or am I just to into my unicorn wellies to miss something 

Well I'm no expert, but depending on the wind direction for convective snow there are always areas which historically do better than others. Around the Thames and the North East tend to do particularly well in these situations, but if you're lined up for a decent streamer, areas further inland can do better than areas near the coast!

Currently, the Met are going for a general max of 15cms for Mon/Tue, so I'd say if you live in a favoured area, that's the least you can expect. For the rest of us, it's a rather fun little crapshoot!

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

I'd say the apps and online snow predictions are going to be pretty useless in this situation. Since this isn't a frontal snow event you could see nothing for hours then cop a couple of hours of heavy snow off a shower which peps up in the North Sea, which barely grazes your mates house down the road. It can be equal parts frustrating and exciting, which is why I prefer a classic Easterly. Once a front clears that's generally your lot.

Impossible for a human or computer to get right for a specific postcode!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Mark said:

BBC have updated their online forecast now.

Always unbroken snow Monday to Wednesday!

For London

I think that's correct for London, but if you mean the computer generated one, I don't trust them at all.

For instance, my location is showing as bone dry for all of Monday and Tuesday! Might pan out that way as I'm not in a prime location, but I seriously doubt it  

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

 

10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I'd be more impressed with 7 or 8 inches myself....

Like you say, everyone has a ticket... places not favoured so much by convection (like me) could benefit heavily from the low at day 6 or so more than others, everyone will get a chance I hope!

Indeed - I would as well! Hope you get something down there as I know how hard it is to get settling snow in your location. I'm in that dead zone where a lot of the convection activity is going on above and below me in these set ups, but I'm still confident we'll see something.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

So we all have a ticket to the lottery now. Fun times!

I'd be very surprised not to see in the region of 2-3 inches here up to Tuesday night. At least what we got here in December, but without the marginality and rapid thaw of course. Someone will get a hammering I'm sure.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

And so the incredible output continues unabated. As the back end of next week creeps into high-res, we'll get a good idea of quite how severe this could end up. It could be quite something based on this morning's output with that approaching low threatening, although I'm guessing this is more likely to end up going further south than currently modeled.

As expected we're now getting the MetO firming up on the locality of potential disruption. We now have 5-10cm maxes quoted locally for both Mon and Tue. Not sure my location will see quite that, but would be surprised to see less than 5-10cms across these two days. Somewhere in the warning zone for Mon and Tue is going to get a pasting, and that's before Wed/Thu are done with us.

 

Certainly, the language they're using is consistent with some huge accumulations, so I'd expect more localised amber warnings to start appearing over the weekend. The mention of rural locations being cut off would probably translate to, what, 20-30 cms at least? That is a worrying prospect for many and we should remember that. If Wednesday and Thursday provide similar accumulations, somewhere is going to be buried by the time the week's out.

All very interesting for us weather geeks. Aside from the obvious fun, there's a very tough week approaching for many, with the obvious risk to life on the roads and very difficult commuting conditions.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, trickybirdy said:

No problem, you could start at the Fox and Raven, you will come to a part of the river where there are lots of canal boats moored too. 

That sounds perfect - pint first of course! 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, trickybirdy said:

Especially if you get over the A12 and walk along the river towards Papermill Lock, I've got some amazing photographs of the area from past winters!

Thanks for the tip!

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

In Essex parlence, that UKMO is 'taters. Throw it on the pile with the rest of them!

If this were bog-standard cold weather at the end of February I'd be cursing about now, but this very much looks like turning into something not seen here since I were a lad. If it pans out per today's output, synoptically something you'll see here only a handful of occasions in a lifetime. At this time of year, possibly only once.

As a lover of photography, there could be some amazing opportunities for shots around the country next week.

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Have to say, didn't expect that this morning. Still time for things to switch again, I'd say 12z tomorrow to be belt and braces.

All told a memorable winter on here for a multitude of reasons. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

I think recent developments are the exact reason those baying for the MetO/BBC etc to start ramping up nationwide heavy snow prospects at t+168 (not necessarily on here but in general) should take note. It's still distinctly possible we'll get severe weather, but today's outputs demonstrate just how fluid these situations can be as the time approaches. 

Fine details which occur in the 0-120 range can dramatically alter the outlook, regardless of cross-model or ensemble support out to lower res. I'd imagine they take place all the time even in zonal scenarios with good agreement, but when many are understandably glued to the exact spacing and orientation of every isobar, these adjustments seem more pronounced. There have been a few cautionary voices advising to wait for tomorrow/Friday to start telling all and sundry we're all about to be buried, and that looks like sound advice as it stands.

Whilst a switch to cold is underway in line with the overall theme and forecasts, the precise nature of next week is still anyone's guess. The meto video forecast, whilst seemingly a bit 'rampy' was very, very carefully worded.

And this coming from someone who got a bit carried away and mentioned Feb '91 to his missus yesterday!

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Although we're probably the laughing stock of Europe watching us sliding around on a mere few inches of snow, I think what sets the UK apart is that we make neither personal nor infrastructural investment to deal with deep cold. We just don't experience enough to warrant it.

Similarly, we have the same with hot weather! It does make you appreciate the 'boring' climate we have here - means we spend less time dealing with and paying for relief from it.

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

16 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Hello fellow Chelmsfordian.

Don't whatever you do do not get @weirp started on Brexit.

By the way Weirpig Jena sends her regards and we both trust you are well. The forthcoming deep freeze will be quite an experience for her as she will not have witnessed anything like it before.

Kind Regards

Dave

Hello there - is the 'claret' a wine preference or a football one? Looks like we may be in the firing line, here but we'll see.

Oh no, don't want to bring the carnage on here as well!

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

LOL  ive got myself into one here   he wants shelters put up for the Homeless  Expects 10 ft drifts  and the vortex to be over us till April   Apparently the Government are aware and are making plans.  

I'm sure he blames the Remoaners!! Bloody EU sending their cold over here. He read that in the Express too.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

What a troll that guy is.

I guarantee the previous entry in his browser history was express.co.uk. They love mentioning the monster 'Polar Vortex Hammering Over the UK'.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Surely the TV forecasts won't predict heavy snow for anywhere next week until I'd say at least late Sat/Sun, mainly because it's impossible until we know the exact orientation of the wind direction and it's potency? It will start with light snow in the East regardless, so we're probably looking at 7 days plus.

As has been stated more eloquently by others more knowledgeable, our air is almost certainly going to come from the continent next week, but the local differences for just a small adjustment from, say, E'ly to NE'ly will have a huge bearing on which areas see convective snow and how much. It's the nature of convective vs frontal snow. There's also the potential for the flow to be less strong than currently modeled, which will dictate how far inland any showers can get.

Just my two cents as nothing is confirmed, but I wouldn't expect even the best agencies to herald the next apocalypse just yet.

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Yes. small scale disturbances can crop up at very short range and kibosh everything. We have seen it many times before particularly with E'ly types. That is why these epic charts are still being viewed with caution as we have all seen it go Pete Tong at just 96hrs many times before. We all view the output with trepidation at the moment, hoping and praying nothing derails the beast. If we can get to Friday with these charts still showing, then game on in my opinion.

Cheers. Ha yes, I've witnessed a few over my lurking years which prompted the question, but never really understood why, where and how! It got me wondering whether the depth of cold inbound makes these features more likely to occur. 

Still, without doubt the most impressive runs I've seen on here. My wife is a fair bit younger than me (born in '91!) I did mention the current charts reminded me of the pre-Feb '91 BBC forecast I watched as a lad with a slack jaw - three months to the day before she was born...

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Also, western Norway when the cold uppers reach that area. That's why it is best for the easterly not to be too far north.

Thanks guys. Presumably, it's the temp gradient which causes these to occur, and the placement and prediction of these can only be ascertained in very near term high-res? Sorry mods if this is taking the discussion away from models, but thought it might be relevant for the less skilled among us.