Thundery wintry showers

May snow has been a noticeable casualty of the warming climate since the 1990s. Until 1997, widespread sleet and snow in May was fairly common, for example in 1982, 1987, 1993, 1995, 1997 and to a lesser extent in 1989 and 1996. The most widespread of those was probably 1997 when sleet and snow fell even in the far south, and accumulated early on the 7th in some lowland parts of Wales and north-west England. The most famous example in the past half-century was in 1979 when snow fell widely on each of the first six days of May, with even low-lying parts of the south-west getting a dusting on the ground. Since 1997 the only particularly widespread example I can think of was on 11 May 2010, when sleet and snow showers fell quite widely from the Midlands northwards. The Mays of 2019 and 2020 both produced similar synoptics to those of mid-May 1995 for a time, but in both cases widespread lowland snowfall was confined to the northern half of Scotland with only localised reports of sleet/snow to low levels elsewhere. We may need a fair bit more warming to kill off April snowfalls, as statistically sleet/snow falling is slightly more common in April than in November in many parts of the UK, and we had fairly widespread snow showers towards the end of April in 2016 and 2017, as well as a surprise snowfall in north-east Scotland in late April 2015.

Not much change in the outlook for Monday/Tuesday, still looking snowy for parts of NE England, Lincolnshire and Norfolk early on Monday with some areas possibly waking up to a covering even on low ground, and parts of Wales and the south-west could see a covering to low levels on Tuesday morning. With the strong April sun and maximum temperatures of 4 to 7C for most, perhaps touching 8 or 9C in the south, the snow won't stick around for long at low levels though. In the northern half of Scotland snow cover could stick around with just modest elevation though (thaws in sunny intervals, re-accumulations during showers), with an impressively cold airmass for the time of year and maxima not far above freezing. Current outputs suggest limited showery activity on Monday away from N Scotland and coasts, but with a slacker flow and a trough, potential for showers to break out more widely in central and southern England on Tuesday afternoon. Cloudier, less cold (but still below average for the time of year), mainly dry weather looks set to head in on Wednesday and Thursday, with another weakening rain belt heading in from the north-west, and then the models have returned to going for a second northerly outbreak on Friday/Saturday. It doesn't currently look likely to be as potent as this one, but GFS precipitation charts suggest a possibility of sleet/snow/hail showers becoming quite widespread in N and E Scotland, NE England, possibly down to Lincolnshire and Norfolk, with a dusting of snow possible to low levels during the intervening night, so potentially one to watch for those areas. In the west this second northerly will probably be dry and sunny.

Probably not the most densely populated area of the UK (the south-east) but I see plenty of potential for widespread snow showers in NE England, Lincolnshire and East Anglia on Monday 5th and then over much of Wales and the West Country, possibly extending into parts of central southern England, on the 6th. The GFS 18Z also has more in the way of showers breaking out inland on the 6th than earlier runs. With it being early April I don't expect lasting snow cover at low levels but parts of NE England and Lincolnshire, maybe Norfolk, could have a covering early on the 5th, and parts of Wales and the south-west on the 6th, with snow showers moving through around dawn.

Perhaps the models over-reacted to a signal yesterday afternoon, correcting the setup a bit too far east initially, as today's runs have revised it slightly further west again, though not as far west as yesterday's UKMO 12Z. The potential for a second, weaker northerly blast mainly affecting the north has also returned. It looks like most roads still lead eventually to high pressure over the south of Britain bringing temperatures closer to normal and dry sunny weather and chilly nights over central and southern Britain, possibly rather cloudier in the north with rain at times for the north-west but there's a lot of uncertainty over where the high will end up at this stage. The westward shift of the northerly is also matched on the GFS by an increase in showery activity especially for Wales and the south-west on Tuesday, which for me in Exeter continues to look interesting, potentially a snowy farewell before I move away from Devon on Friday 9th. For Monday it looks like the northern half of Scotland and north-east England will be the prime locations for snow, perhaps parts of Lincolnshire, the Midlands and East Anglia also. Still suggestions, though, that a large part of central and southern England will see a pronounced "wishbone effect" with just scattered light snow or graupel flurries developing.

The more extreme model runs would not have brought "cold rain and hail maybe with a touch of sleet" with 850hPa temperatures of around -10C. To be fair, it's possible that in your case you might be seeing maxima of 6-8C and overlooking the fact that snow can fall in a showery northerly in April with temperatures as high as 8C because of the shallowness of the warm solar heated layer near the surface and low relative humidities, so I'll stop short of automatically jumping to a conclusion here. However, comments like that often reflect a bias along the lines of, "I don't want cold weather after mid-March, so therefore a northerly after some arbitrary date in mid-March, no matter how intense it is, will only bring cold rain and hail maybe with a touch of sleet", where essentially the strong emotive preference for or against a particular weather type biases one's sense of objectivity. Of course, it can happen the other way, it is also inaccurate to assume that a spring northerly will always bring plenty of sunshine, snow and hail showers and impressive cloud formations - some of them do indeed bring grey rainy sleety weather. But the northerly showing for Monday/Tuesday looks far too potent to deliver cold rain.

Regarding "downgrades", all that has happened this morning is that the UKMO has fallen into line with what the GFS and ECMWF models were showing in their 12Z/18Z runs yesterday. Locally in Devon I see the 1025mb isobar covering the region for much of the northerly outbreak, whereas some earlier runs had it at 1015-1020mb. There has been no toning down of the intensity of the cold, but it does mean that convection may be more limited inland. Still, I would expect rather more in the way of showery activity to sprout up than is currently suggested by the GFS, with the unusually cold airmass combined with the relatively strong sun. And again there is a chance of a dusting of snow here in Exeter early on Tuesday morning with a feed of snow showers through Wales and into Cornwall shifting east into Devon and perhaps Dorset/Somerset as well. Low-lying parts of NE England in particular could also see some lying snow on Monday morning as a trough moves through. For the longer term, though, significantly reduced chances of further northerly blasts with high pressure building to the south and the jet stream running over the top. This is a shift in the outlook that I got very used to in the 2000s, it was very common for northerlies to be toned down in this way back then. It's surprising to see it to this extent now with the models' improved accuracy at the 4-7 day timeframe in recent years, but it shows that today's improved models can still struggle with handling Atlantic blocking and northerlies. NOAA's 8-14 day outlook suggests a mainly westerly flow:

If anything I think the GFS 18Z has the northerly very slightly further east than the GFS and ECMWF 12Z runs did, with less precipitation again as a result. Potential for a snowy disturbance moving south down the eastern half of England early on Easter Monday, though it may fizzle as it heads further south:

To be fair, northerlies having their main "thrust" go out into the North Sea has happened quite a lot in the past including in the 1970s: Also, heights over Greenland do get notably high as the northerly approaches the UK, and on the latest ECMWF and UKMO runs they're still pretty high at day 5-6. I think it's more of an issue that the probability of any given northerly giving UK the "ideal" hit for widespread snow is fairly low, as it always has been - though with today's warmer climate it takes a more intense northerly to be cold enough than it used to.

Tonight's ECMWF looks similar to the GFS, so with relatively high pressure a "wishbone effect" is more likely with relatively few showers developing inland, still a chance of some snow showers heading through Wales and into the West Country overnight 5th/6th as per the GFS. The UKMO with lower heights and the northerly a little further west would result in showers developing more widely inland. Not sure about the "cold wet yuck" for southern areas, most current model runs are going for predominantly cold bright weather for the south with scattered wintry showers mainly around north-facing coasts, and just one or two weak rain belts coming down from the north-west. It's fine not wanting cold northerlies, but not to let it bias one's perceptions of what the models are showing. The "cold and dry and thus not particularly snowy" assessment of a few recent posts looks likely to be accurate for many in the south though.

Still some uncertainty on how far west this northerly ends up, I am watching with interest as this setup has potential to bring a rare April snowfall here in Exeter (I think the most that I can expect on the ground is a brief dusting early on the 6th, like happened in Exeter on 6 April 2008, but any wintry weather is noteworthy here at any time of year, let alone this late in the season). GFS at T+72 has the main "thrust" of the northerly going down the east of the UK, though it does have a feed of showers heading through Wales into the West Country overnight 5th/6th despite pressure of around 1025mb: However, the UKMO has the main thrust of the northerly further west hitting the whole country: Indeed, tonight's UKMO out to T+144 is a very wintry run with a second potent northerly likely out at T+168. It's worth noting that the GFS still has very cold 850hPa temperatures hitting the whole country, just with higher pressure possibly meaning fewer showers generally especially in the west. For the longer term, potential for another switch-around back to warm sunshine, or at least a transition to settled weather with temperatures closer to normal, some sunshine by day and chilly nights, with high pressure building from the west, though there's a fair chance of another northerly blast or two before this happens. This morning's ECMWF was more similar to the current GFS, though with the northerly a little further west than on the GFS.

Looking over the past exchanges my impression was that you didn't intend to guilt trip others but it came across that way (particularly the post about people getting excited over plants dying, as opposed to getting excited over the weather that can potentially cause it). It's one of those situations where particularly when emotions are running high, in online rather than face-to-face interactions it's so easy to come across the wrong way and get misinterpreted. One issue is that while the preference for warmth differs from the mainstream in winter on this forum, there is a history of the majority flicking a switch on 1 March and then lecturing people who continue to show interest in cold/snow about how they need to "move on" and follow the crowd. I think it was mainly an issue around 2005-2010, not so much in recent years, but some long-standing members of Netweather (and I admit that these include myself) may be rather sensitive to it after previous bruising experiences. And yes, many of the sort of people who get attracted to weather forums are particularly interested in things that are unusual and/or extreme. An unusually cold spell and/or late snowfalls in the spring attracts interest just as an unusually warm southerly in October does.

Exeter Airport is currently reporting 19C, probably a cooling breeze off the Channel, but still very warm for the end of March.

I agree with the general sentiments. The terms "upgrade" and "downgrade" refer to something being toned up or down, but my question there is, what is it that's being toned up or down? Usually it's whatever the person who is posting wants to see, which is as subjective as it gets. Even when there's a general agreement on seeking cold/snow for example, a colder run can be an "upgrade" in that it's colder, but a "downgrade" in that there is less precipitation about and it is therefore less snowy. Similarly with the desire for warm sunshine and seeing a warmer but cloudier run. Thus, when I was regularly posting in the Model Output Discussion thread I preferred to be more specific about the changes from run to run. The arguments over snow versus warm sunshine in spring remind me a lot of the rule that, say, if you support Sunderland you have to hate Newcastle United. In terms of the weather, perhaps what "gets" me most at this time of year is the view, "Cold weather in spring is raw, dull, wet and windy", combined with the desire to see a northerly with sunshine and snow showers miss the UK and be replaced by a raw, dull, wet and windy scenario (which could actually happen next week if the northerly goes off slightly to the west of Britain). I don't object to people preferring dull wet windy weather over sunshine and snow showers, but I do object to partisan point scoring, and this particular example reeks of that rather than a genuine personal preference.

I'm moving to Lincoln shortly (probably sometime in the first half of April, although my date hasn't been decided yet) so am hoping that Lincoln will similarly serve me well, being in between Leeds and Norwich. Yes, the most thunder-prone area region of the UK has often extended up from East Anglia into parts of Lincolnshire in recent years. I think when I was growing up Kent and Sussex had the most storms, but they have recently had a marked decline in thunder.

I have often thought of Norwich as being right up there for places for exciting weather - it's one of the UK's thunderstorm hotspots, has relatively hot summers and cold winters, and has a history of being susceptible to snow showers from north and east winds. I admit that it's pretty sheltered from the Atlantic storms though, which can make the weather drag a bit during westerly spells in winter. Since the very potent ones in 2010, however, northerlies often haven't been cold enough for Norwich in recent years, delivering just rain, hail and sleet showers. I also remember Leeds being pretty good for varied weather and excitement when I was there. It does seem to taper off as you head north from there, though.

Regarding the switch flick thing, it was interesting to read the parallels with supporting sports teams, because I've had a recurring tendency in many areas of life to back both horses in a situation where the unwritten rule is that you can only side with one or the other. For example, when I was living in the North East, I supported Sunderland, but at times I also supported Newcastle United, which really went against expected norms. I have also had some puzzled reactions over the years for supporting net zero emissions and sustainable transport but also supporting cars and driving to some extent. The question of whether to want warm sunshine or snow in spring is much the same, I tend to welcome both all year round but the emphasis shifts depending on the time of year. I guess I have an unusually "spectral" way of seeing things and tend not to get into "either-or" thinking.

In Tyneside I saw falling snow on Christmas Day in 1993, 1995, 1996, 1999 and 2001, and there was about a centimetre on the ground for a time on Christmas Day 1993, and two to three inches on Christmas Day 1995. On none of the other occasions did the snow settle. There was also falling and lying snow there on Boxing Day 2000, which saw lying snow from 26-31 December inclusive. There was then lying but not falling snow on Christmas Day in 2009 and 2010, with 3cm in 2009 and 11cm in 2010. In 2020 I was staying in West Yorkshire and saw falling sleety snow for a time on Christmas Eve. I also saw falling and lying snow when at my sister's house on Boxing Day 2014. So in my experiences white Christmasses have been more common than white Easters by a fair margin in the last 30 years.

The charts for Easter 1968 don't look at all snowy, with high pressure over Scotland: However, there was a very potent northerly from 2-7 April 1968 which was consistent with the weather you described, so maybe you're remembering that northerly and it's plausible that some of that snow may still have been lying at Easter. Edit: re. Bristle boy, Easter (27-31 March) 1975 had widespread snow.

I was on holiday in Glasgow over the Easter 2008 weekend and nothing lay there although there were snow showers there on all four days. The band of precipitation that moved down from the north in the early hours of Easter Sunday fell as rain and sleet in Glasgow. I think it did fall as snow in Cleadon, as the records from my AWS there were giving readings of about 0.5C as the front moved through. In the case of Easter 1998 I spent the whole weekend in Cleadon, there was persistent sleet on the Friday, and snow and hail showers on the Saturday, Sunday and Monday, with lying snow early on the Sunday as mentioned earlier. Tuesday and Wednesday were mainly dry and bright, with the Pennines sheltering Tyneside from the polar low that hit the north-west on Tuesday 14th. There was further snow on the morning of Thursday 16th which didn't lie. Easter 1995 was a near miss despite being a late Easter, with a warm sunny day on Good Friday, a breakdown over the weekend, a dull wet Easter Monday and snow showers on the following Tuesday. Tyneside also missed out on the Easter 1994 snow, mainly due to not picking up many showers in the westerly flow due to the shelter from the Pennines, but I'm pretty sure many areas did have a white Easter that year, at least in terms of snow falling. I may as well drag out some charts. Easter Monday 1994: Easter Sunday 1998: and Easter Sunday 2008:

I saw lying snow on Easter Sunday in Cleadon, South Tyneside, on 12 April 1998. It was caused by east-coast snow showers early that morning. I also saw some lying snow on Easter Monday (24 March) 2008 including a heavy snow squall at 6pm that evening. In neither case did the snow stick around for long though.

I follow the Munich webcams and there have been a number of snow showers there in recent days: https://camera.deckchair.com/the-westin-grand-munich/v/5f6a7d3f009e0100017f9998 Looks like becoming warm and settled and possibly sunny in continental Europe in a few days' time though. A month of switch-arounds in central Europe perhaps? I remember it was warm and sunny there earlier in the month.

No, I've changed jobs at the start of this month, working at the university of Lincoln now. To be fair I haven't moved for over 6 years, but I've been on Netweather for 18 years and have moved a lot in that time so it probably seems as if I have moved around frequently. Interesting that we're getting such high temperatures, including in places like Edinburgh. We're in an anticyclonic/northerly flow which is pulling in warm air from the Azores, but still it's rather unusual to get such warmth from a northerly flow.

Yes, I'm living in the Whipton area in the east of Exeter itself, so about 5 miles south-west of Broadclyst. I'm looking set to move to Lincoln in early April though.

It's an interesting question, though I think smogs would also help to keep the night-time minima relatively high during cold clear spells, by reducing the extent to which temperatures fall away under good radiation conditions with clear skies and light winds. Generally it serves to suppress the diurnal range (giving cooler days but warmer nights), but as noted earlier February 1891 had unusually high diurnal ranges over much of the UK.

February 1891 looks like it was, in many ways, a cooler version of February 2019, partly because of the lower global temperatures then and partly because there was a stronger emphasis on continental air and stable high pressure over the south. This would have brought cold nights with frost and fog especially to southern areas, and as LetitSnow mentioned this would have been exacerbated by smog in urban areas. Overall, though, most places had a very sunny month with warm days and cold nights. The near-average CET was arrived at via warm days (mean max 8.2C) and cold nights (mean min -0.3C) and it may well have been a bit colder than average in the south-east. However, it was a very mild month in the north where there was a stronger Atlantic influence on the northern and western flank of the high. At Durham the mean max was 9.3C, but again there was a contrast between warm days and chilly nights and a mean minimum of 0.0C there, which meant that Durham's mean temperature was mild but not remarkably so. There was indeed a spell of exceptionally high daytime maxima near the end of February 1891 from very February 2019-esque synoptics, peaking at 19.4C at Cambridge on the 27th. A high of 18.1C was also recorded in the Irish Republic near Casement Aerodrome during this spell. However, the CET values for the period were only between 4 and 6C, indicating that there were probably cold nights and suppressed maxima in parts of the CET zone due to fog.