Thundery wintry showers

I saw four or five flashes of lightning to the south-west of Lincoln between 10:40 and 10:50pm but nothing recently.

I too had the problem of some lightning captures being out of focus, but here's four that I got from Lincoln last night.

I think (but am not 100% sure) that I heard a solitary rumble of thunder from the cell that has just sprouted up over Lincoln over the past 20 minutes. This is after staying up rather late to watch Lincoln's lightning show last night.

Staying at my parents in Knaresborough for a couple of nights, and a cell went up just to the north-east of here between 10 and 11pm and produced quite a bit of thunder and lightning. It was so localised and short lived that the Met Office's ATD system didn't detect the lightning from it, but it shows up well on the radar. Thus, I've had my first thunder-day of the 2022 summer quarter (I had a couple in Lincoln back in May).

In many cases, nostalgia for a particular decade is linked with recollections of the carefree and innocent days of our childhoods. Most generations tend to end up thinking that the decade that they grew up in was the best decade. However, there is a fair case for highlighting the 1990s as a good decade from a meteorological point of view. In particular, it was at a time when global warming/climate change was just starting to kick in, so the impacts on the overall climate system were just starting to appear and were far less concerning than they are today. While 1995 was the warmest year on record globally at the time, and set a new record minimum September Arctic sea ice extent, neither were far below the normal bounds of 20th century variability. The 1990s also had more than its fair share of hot (but not generally excessively hot), dry and sunny summers, though there were a few less well-received ones (1992, 1993, 1998). August is an odd month in that it is normally relatively changeable and/or cloudy but there are three Augusts - 1947 and 1976 as well as 1995 - which stand out for having an exceptional persistence of high pressure in the right place to bring cloudless skies to almost the whole country. In the Met Office sunshine series, 1947, 1976 and 1995 were the only three Augusts to exceed 200 hours of sunshine, but all had 240+ hours. It remains to be seen whether the week or so of this setup in August 2022 proves enough to bring this August into the 200+ hour bracket.

The current spell is certainly reminding me a lot of August 1995, as I sort of expected it to given the strikingly similar synoptic setup. At present virtually the whole country is cloudless apart from the far north-west of Scotland. It doesn't take as much to get mid-30s Celsius as it did back then, though. Apart from an exceptional spell at the start of the month, August 1995 was mostly a case of mid to high 20s and occasionally low 30s. In early August 1995, when it hit 35C locally in southern Britain, the 15C 850hPa isotherm covered a large slice of the UK and 850hPa temperatures over France were mostly between 17 and 19C, but the 20C isotherm was mainly confined to Spain. The 850hPa temperatures, to me, give a comparably strong indication of the intensification of western European heatwaves since the turn of the 21st century to the surface temperatures. It used to be very rare to see the 20C isotherm get beyond central France.

Yes, 11/12 July produced the most widespread thunderstorms of 1995. They headed into the south-west on the 11th and then spread north and east through most parts of the country. Even South Shields had a significant thunderstorm from them on the night of the 11th/12th.

I still remember it quite well. It was cooler in the South Shields area than in many other areas of the UK, due to frequent easterly breezes, but despite that, there was very little haar/sea fret after the first couple of days. Sunshine totals in the region included 267 at Tynemouth and 263 at Sunderland, both easily the highest on record for August. It got up to around 27-28C towards the end of the month's last heatwave around the 21st. Further inland, Durham averaged 23.1C and climbed above 30C a couple of times. Sunshine anomalies were pretty evenly distributed around the country: totals elsewhere included 295 hours at Heathrow, 284 at Manchester Airport and 254 at Glasgow Airport. Heathrow's average maximum was 27.0. Also, although most of the month was thunder-free due to the settled anticyclonic weather, thunder was quite widespread in eastern England during a day of sunshine and showers on the 27th. I still remember a brief but impressive hailstorm with thunder in Cleadon near South Shields/Sunderland that afternoon. Norwich Weather Centre and Waddington (the nearest official station to Lincoln) also reported thunder. Also I think Rhoose in Wales had 85.3mm of rain from a localised thunderstorm near the beginning of the month, and only 5mm for the whole of the rest of the month! I was actually reminded of August 1995 recently when I saw the forecast charts for next week - the setup does look very similar, though it probably won't sustain for as long.

18.5C and 28.9mm please.

Thought I would give some recaps on the heatwave as Lincoln was one of the hottest places in the country on Tuesday. Unfortunately there are no official Met Office sites in Lincoln, but the University site hit 40.1C. It's a rooftop site, but rooftop sites are known to be anomalously high mainly at night rather than during the daytime. It's probably about as reliable/representative as the likes of Leeds Weather Centre were back in the 1990s and early 2000s. Nearby RAF Waddington got to 40.3C, equalling the Coningsby record, but the Met Office discounted the reading because of conditions below the site. When I checked the official Met Office tweets which showed individual sites' anomalies against their 1991-2020 averages, Waddington's 40.3C did seem a little on the high side - a figure around 39.5 to 39.8 would've been consistent with nearby sites - so in view of the intense media scrutiny we get around UK record highs I think they were right to discount it. However, a reading in the high 39s at Waddington would be consistent with Lincoln having made 40.1C. Thanks to the Coningsby record, Lincolnshire now officially holds the highest temperature in the UK, just edging out Heathrow Airport's 40.2C. My parents tell me that my weather station up at Knaresborough also hit 40C, and I'll be getting the readings from it at the month's end. My parents moved to a house with a bigger back garden a while ago. It's still a little on the warm side at times on sunny days in the summer half-year, but not excessively so, as is reflected by the fact that the Met Office site at Branham just 8 miles to the south-east recorded 39.5C.

For me definitely 2012. There was a spell in late July and the first half of August 2012 that I quite enjoyed, but otherwise it was a washout, especially in the case of June 2012. 2007 was redeemed to some extent for me by a high frequency of thunder and by a fairly dry and sunny August. 2008 had near average sunshine and temperatures in June & July but August 2008 was certainly a cloudfest. I grew up in the Tyne and Wear area, and remarkably 1998 was the only cloudier than average summer of the 1990s there, but it wasn't on a par with 2012 for me. As for the best, I recall a "trio" of summers in 1994/95/96 from my childhood which I recall comparably fondly for their own reasons - 1994 mainly for some spectacular thunderstorms and sun/warmth in June and July, 1995 for sunshine, heat and drought, and 1996 for variety while retaining above average sunshine and daytime temperatures in each of the three summer months. As far as individual months go, July 2006 sticks out, it was like spending a month in continental France.

The GFS is still going for 41C tomorrow across quite a wide area, but I reckon that the GFS (and UKV, which has similar temperatures) are overdoing it a little. The GFS predictions for today were generally 1 to 2C too high, so I expect that highs in the belt of eastern England from the SE up to south Yorkshire will mostly be between 38 and 40C. I think there's a fair chance of a UK record being set that lies somewhere between 40 and 41C. If more convective cloud bubbles up than expected then we could still fall a little short of 40C, but with potential for a localised föhn effect to take place with southerly breezes, it's also not inconceivable that one or two spots could get above 41C.

RAF Waddington has just come in with an hourly reading of 35.7C, so it looks like its record of 35.1C from 2019 is well beaten already, and it's forecast to get even hotter tomorrow. I think GFS is probably still over-egging it with its prediction of 41C. I reckon it might "only" make 38 or 39C there tomorrow.

Waddington's latest hourly readings according to Weatherobs were 34.8 and 34.6 so there's a chance that its record of 35.1C might have gone. Also some staggeringly low relative humidity readings - just 16% humidity with dew points between 5 and 6C!

Waddington's latest reading was 34.8C, just 0.3C off its record of 35.1 on 25 July 2019.

Also, looking at the Waddington weather records, Waddington made 35.1C on 25 July 2019, just beating the 34.8C on 3 August 1990, so 35.1 is the figure to beat at my nearest official Met Office site. It's currently 2.6 short of that, so it will be touch and go as to whether Waddington sets a new temperature record today.

It's interesting to observe the places that I've previously lived that are known for their relatively boring but safe weather. South Shields is at 24.2C with a sea breeze and Exeter Airport is at 27.9C. (Exeter did reach 32C this June though).

Yes 40.7C at Cazaux according to the feeds from Weatherobs. https://www.weatherobs.com Also 39.6C at Nantes. 35.8C at Paris-Orly would probably be pretty stifling in the urban environment there.

I went for a walk in Lincoln while it was down at around 30C and even then, as the temperature crept up to 31-32C, it was exhausting walking back home. It's currently 33C at nearby Waddington, and 34.3C at the University of Lincoln's weather station. https://www.lincoln.ac.uk/geography/weatherstation/ The University site is on a rooftop so could be prone to being a little on the high side at times, though traditionally rooftop sites tend to be anomalously warm primarily by night rather than by day, so I reckon it's unlikely to be more than 1C on the high side. There is potential for a slight föhn effect here tomorrow with a southerly breeze and an area of relatively high ground just to the south around Waddington, so I'll be keeping an eye on those readings.

Looking at the projected temperatures for Tuesday, GFS is consistently throwing up highs of 40-42C for the eastern side of England, Comparing 850hPa temperatures between GFS and ECMWF, the ECMWF's are generally a couple of degrees lower, so I think the GFS may be overdoing it slightly. Here are the ECMWF 2m temperatures - although it should be noted that the 2m temperature tends to give the typical afternoon value, and to get the max you can generally add a couple of degrees to those figures: Thus, in my opinion the most likely outcome is maxima of 38 to 40C across this region on Tuesday, probably with a new national record somewhere between 40 and 41C, although 42C isn't completely out of the question especially if localised Föhn effects come into play with the southerly breeze. There is still some uncertainty around this, for as we saw on 25 July 2019 convective cloud can bubble up unexpectedly in this kind of setup, but with such high maxima being forecast over such a large region (it's rare to see the extreme maxima push as far north as Yorkshire), the chances are that somewhere will see enough breaks in the cloud to hit 40C.

I quite enjoyed that summer, though I was quite fortunate with my locations. I spent June 2009 in Exeter, where it was a very eventful month. There were a couple of outstanding events: an exceptional deluge of rain on the 6th, with thunder early on, and thunderstorms with hail on the 15th, resulting in a statistically very wet month, but most of the rest of the month was sunny and dry, especially the last week, and the number of wet days wasn't high. Then I went to Norwich for July and August 2009. In Norwich, July was showery and thundery but quite warm and sunny, so I quite enjoyed it overall, especially early on in the month. I noted thunder on 7 days, plus a hailstorm on the 30th. Exeter was generally dull as well as wet that month and not particularly thundery as it was often in the breeding ground for thundery showers further east, so I wouldn't have been too happy with the month there. The first week of August 2009 was dry but dull in Norwich, but the middle part of the month had a good ten days or so of mainly warm/hot and sunny weather. I remember some minor thunderstorms from an import of continental air near the end of the fine spell when temperatures got close to 30C. The last third was more ordinary and changeable. Not a classic summer overall, but like many others I regarded it as the best of the 07-12 period. I remember enjoying the first half of summer 2010 in Norwich, but certainly not the second half.

Had a couple of showers in Lincoln today, but convection wasn't as intense today so no thunder.

First rumble of thunder from a cell to the SW of Lincoln, making it thunder-day number 2 for 2022.

Yes, there were a couple of sferics showed up out to the west of Lincoln but just the one very close by to the north-west. I won't be surprised if we hear a few more as it clears away to the east though. Yes, sure enough, I heard another rumble just half a minute after I wrote that!

Since 1970 the snowiest May generally was that of 1979, when many parts of the country had sleet/snow falling on all of the first five or six days of the month, and some sites reported lying snow at 0900 on one or two mornings also. Sleet and snow fell more locally near the beginning of May in 1981, 1982 and 1987, and perhaps surprisingly, also around 12 May 1989, during what was otherwise a warm and exceptionally sunny month for most of the country. In the 1990s the most widespread instance of snow in May was on 6-7 May 1997. It snowed over much of lowland Scotland on 13-15 May 1993, and on higher ground in the north of England. 11-13 May 1995 had sleet/snow showers in some areas from the Midlands northwards, though not quite as widespread as in 1997, and there was lying snow around Glasgow early on 12 May 1995. Later on, rain turned to snow in some places on a cold wet day on 17 May 1995. Sleet and snow were somewhat more localised on low ground in May 1996, which was more remarkable for persistence of cold than intense individual cold spells. Interestingly another May ending in "5" - 1955 - had pretty widespread snow on the 17th/18th. The 1935 example was arguably the most remarkable instance of snow in May in the 20th century, though. As others have noted, it's generally a struggle to get lying snow at Southport even in mid-winter, let alone mid-May.