Thundery wintry showers

It's because the period 1981-2010 is bracketed by two exceptionally cold Decembers (1981, 2010) and unlike the other months of the year, December has not warmed significantly since the early 20th century whereas January and February have warmed significantly. The main reason for this is synoptic, with an unusually high frequency of cold blocked setups in recent Decembers, compared with a lack of them during January. As a result, the Decembers of the 1981-2010 period were anomalously cold relative to longer-term averages. Most 30-year periods have their anomalies, e.g. 1971-2000 had anomalously cool Junes and 1961-1990 had anomalously warm Octobers.

I suggest that there's money to be made on both sides- the pro-AGW argument is an excuse for green taxes while the anti-AGW argument is an excuse for promoting maximum energy consumption to boost various companies' profits. The news is hardly news to me really- global mean temperatures only vary by up to a few tenths of a degree each year so unless we get a significant downward trend, next year will be almost certain to exceed the 1961-90 average, and also that of 1981-2010 by a smaller margin.

I've noticed that re. the anticyclonic interludes around mid-May 1999, and the second week of June 1999, with high pressure centred to the west, the forecasts predicted dry weather with plenty of sunshine, and then when it got to within a few days of the event, they progressively upped the cloud amounts in eastern areas. I'm reminded of the issue where many of us see high pressure and think optimistically about warmth and sunshine, only for the high to end up in the "wrong" place- even the best of the experts get caught out on occasion!

I remember posting in the model output thread a while ago that we would probably get a cold second half to December, with a wintry northerly incursion shortly before or around Christmas, unless low pressure became slow-moving over the eastern Atlantic sector, but I considered that as being one of the less likely possibilities, hence my forecast of a cold December overall (around 2.5C CET). Essentially, though, that's what we've ended up with- the most common way to get a mild outcome in the UK in spite of extensive northern blocking.

Statistics show that on average January is the snowiest month of the year, combining relatively cool waters around the UK with limited sunlight strength, although in some (mainly coastal) areas, February tends to be snowier. Due to short-term synoptic variability, however, we have seen an anomalously low frequency of snowy synoptics in January in recent years (with no notably snowy January from 1988 to 2009 inclusive) while recent Decembers have often had anomalously snowy synoptics. As a result, in the last couple of decades December has generally been the snowiest month of the year with February second and January a poor third. However this is just a statistical quirk and I'll be surprised if January and February don't return to surpassing December again during the next few decades. Of course a snowy December is more ideal for many people as it gets many of us into the festive spirit for Christmas.

This is very true. At Buffalo on the south-eastern flank of the Great Lakes, the highest maximum temperature for November 2012 was 21.1C and the lowest was -8.9C, a quite remarkable range: http://www.tutiempo....2012/726627.htm There are certain characteristics of the Great Lakes climate which would be ideal for me (e.g. lake-effect snow, sunny summers with thunderstorms, not particularly dull in winter, variable temperatures) but I doubt that I would cope particularly well with the levels of heat and humidity often associated with their summers- a typical summer month has a mean max of 28 to 30C, and during July 2012, Buffalo's mean max was a whopping 34C. Regardless of your weather preferences, chances are that all climates across the globe will have at least some downsides. I'm sure that there are some areas of the world that I would consider to have more interesting climates than the UK without being too extreme (much of central continental Europe would probably qualify) but they are somewhat outnumbered by the areas of the world that don't.

It's an interesting question- in the UK we don't get the cold snowy winters that most continental masses get, but we get a much larger variety of weather types. Most continental land masses are not prone to those "cold air, warm sea" setups with convection firing in off the sea and occasionally bringing a large dumping of snow to windward areas, or those stormy Atlantic depressions with squall lines followed by sunshine mixed with squally rain and hail showers. The areas to the south, east and west of the Great Lakes in the USA appear to combine continentality with the "cold air, warm sea" setups that I am so fond of in the UK, but there aren't many other such examples.

The stats for Durham University have been similar: http://www.geography...66/Default.aspx All Decembers from 2001 onwards were significantly sunnier than average at Durham, too, apart from 2002 and 2007. Prior to the "noughties" December 1999 had been exceptionally sunny and December 2000 slightly above average, though there were many duller Decembers prior to 1999. The length of the recent run of sunny Decembers in many parts of the country has been really remarkable. Some parts of north-eastern Britain had more sunshine in December 2006 and/or January 2007 than in June 2007, so we have seen remarkable "winter vs. summer stats" like this quite recently. In 2008 many parts of the country had more sunshine in February than in August.

That's always been one of my pet peeves with TV and media forecasts as well. I get a sense that forecasts these days (apart from the BBC Countryfile ones which are geared towards farmers) are geared mainly towards travellers, particularly business-related travel and people driving to and from work. For the majority of those people, the most important consideration is lack of travel disruption and thus a mild grey drizzly day would be preferable to a cold dry sunny one with risk of frost and ice. The problem with it is that the UK's population is pretty heterogeneous and even if 50 million people agree with a value judgement, that still leaves 15-20 million who don't. The summer equivalent for me is those occasions when a cold grey wet spell leads into a warmer, brighter spell with thundery showers. I can usually be relied upon to relish such a change, while forecasts can equally be relied upon to say, "more of the same I'm afraid- dire and unsettled with more showers and risk of thunder"- this is tailored to the people who just want a sustained settled spell so that they can do outdoor stuff and not be rained on. However, showers are hit-and-miss features and we often see some places end up mainly dry and sunny, which hardly comes across to Joe Public as a continuation of the preceding dull wet weather!

I note that the forecast from the 12th April 1999 had the trough for the 13th too far south and west- it was forecast to hit NW England and the Midlands and miss much of NE England, but Tyne and Wear unexpectedly caught the northern flank of the trough the next morning, which gave 2-3 hours of light to moderate snowfall and a dusting near the coast with more significant accumulations inland. After a sunny period during late afternoon more snow showers followed behind and gave a covering, and there were more snow showers on the 14th. The frontal belt early on the 15th, accurately forecast on the 14th, brought a couple of hours of wet snow but the showers that followed behind were of rain. I've seen a couple of instances of people recalling snowfalls in mid-April but struggling to remember if it was in 1998 or 1999, as both years had widespread snow around the 13th to 15th although widespread snow also fell outside of that period in 1998.

I've looked over the BBC forecasts from that period around mid-January 1994 and it seems unlikely to be that event- the precipitation penetrated as far north as the London area and forecasts were predicting mostly rain at low levels with snow on high ground- so probably not that likely. Another possibility that I'm wondering about is the night of the 2nd/3rd March 1995, when in an unusually cold west to north-westerly regime, a frontal disturbance moved eastwards across southern England. Snow was forecast for a large swathe of southern England, including London, but most sites around Greater London did not report any significant snow on the ground the next morning. I'm not sure, though, if it was a case of the heaviest precipitation missing London or if temperatures were just too marginal. The reason why I'm looking into events that only partially meet the description is that memory can sometimes play tricks, especially re. events that happened at a young age. I've had a fair number of experiences of recalling childhood events, then reading about them in my old diaries and finding that they weren't exactly as I remembered them. It might be that there was indeed an instance of a channel low being forecast to bring snow and tracking too far south in the early '90s but if there is one then I can't find it.

I can't say for certain as the evidence is quite vague, but I'm thinking it could be around the 22nd-24th February 1994. An easterly airstream brought cold bright weather to most parts on the 20th-22nd, with heavy and locally thundery snow showers for eastern Scotland and north-east England, and then on the 22nd-24th frontal systems pushed up from the south, giving mostly rain to southern England but spells of snow from the north Midlands northwards. I'm not 100% sure on this, but that event seems to be the closest match out of the ones we saw during 1993 and 1994. http://www.wetterzen...00119940222.gif If on the other hand the snow didn't arrive because it was dry (rather than because of marginality and thus rain) then that rules out the 22nd-24th February 1994 event as it certainly rained a lot in the south.

Your post reminds me a lot of January and March 1996- while those months both had a brief snowy interlude, my main association with them is days on end of grey drizzly weather, temps of 3-4C and a biting south-easterly wind. Other than a spell around mid-January 2010, and mid to late December 2010 in south-east England, such weather has been lacking in recent cold winters, perhaps due to the dominance of blocking around Greenland rather than Scandinavia.

I don't see any scope for snow in Norwich this week (having gone down there for a few days)- a shame as I'd looked forward to messing about in the snow with the students at the UEA, but on the plus side I should get back home more easily this Friday as a result. As for the mild vs. cold arguments, I do sympathise with those who are interested in the weather but not too fussed on snow, given the strong prevalence of snow lovers on this forum (and also many other communities of weather enthusiasts). However, I don't have a lot of time for the arguments re. suppressing enjoyment/desire for a certain type of weather because of the disruption and inconvenience caused- the last couple of pages illustrate how that argument just goes around in circles! We have, in fairness, set up a couple of model output discussion-related threads for those who are interested in weather types other than snow.

I've noticed that spells with notable warmth combined with unusually abundant sunshine, like the spells in late-March and late-May this year, often have much the same effect on me as snowstorms, thunderstorms, squall lines and gales- they draw my attention and make me want to get outside and make the most of them. Certainly when I think back to the period May-July 2012 and try to recall notable weather events, the spell near the end of May sticks out. I can only conclude that such spells register with me as notable weather events in themselves, perhaps fuelled by their rarity in this country. Taking the other side of the coin, I generally associate "non-weather" with stable anticyclonic situations, but the starkest example of "non-weather" that I recall from this year's summer was the cyclonic first half of July- the slow-moving low pressure systems brought a staggering amount of cloud cover and thus the weather in between the rain belts ended up persistently cloudy with the odd bit of drizzle. I think many of us found that a rather "testing" spell of weather!

I've had much the same experience, though I often wonder if it's because the sort of people that I like to associate with are statistically more likely than average to like snow- academics, scientists and weather enthusiasts are certainly examples of this. Many of the people that I hung out with in secondary school love to go on skiing holidays and are attracted to snow partly for that reason. My family are divided roughly 60-40 in favour of snow, but then again many of them have an above-average level of interest in the weather- not as strong as mine, but appreciation of weather certainly runs in my family.Then again, when UK media sources survey opinions on snow they tend to focus on the likes of elderly people at bus stops and business people whose livelihoods depend on lack of disruption to road transport, so a cross-section like mine helps to add an element of counter-balance.

Copied from the other model thread: Strong agreement that while wintry showers will turn increasingly to snow during tomorrow and Wednesday, they will mostly be stuck out in the North Sea, with a large majority of the country dry and clear with temperatures somewhat below the seasonal average, most especially by night: http://nwstatic.co.u...b6d9dba1617f42; http://nwstatic.co.u...b6d9dba1617f42; Freezing fog may also be an issue in many areas as Ian Ferguson recently pointed out in the south-west thread. It is looking increasingly probable that our continental blocking will put up very little resistance against the Atlantic frontal systems pushing in from the SW on Thursday and Friday, although the GFS has ditched the Atlantic-driven shortwave over Scotland that it previously showed for Thursday. Precipitation towards the south-west of Britain will generally be rain at low levels as the cold continental air will struggle to fully penetrate into south-western Britain this week. There is still some potential for sleet and snow on the northern flank as the systems head through central and northern England and into Scotland, but it is almost certain to be a short-lived snow event in the areas that get snow. After the rain passes through on Friday, the UKMO, ECMWF and GFS are all agreed on a showery-looking south-westerly regime, with most of the showers concentrated over Wales and western and southern parts of England, and some also over western Scotland. Sheltered parts of eastern Scotland and north-east England will probably see very few showers, although I rather suspect that the GFS precip outputs are under-doing the inland penetration of shower activity. Some fairly high CAPE (convective available potential energy) for the time of year is showing up over the seas surrounding southern Britain: http://nwstatic.co.u...b6d9dba1617f42; This would support some scattered weak thunderstorms associated with the showery activity over the south and west of Ireland and Wales, and also near the south coast of England. Long-term prospects for cold snowy weather look like being strongly hindered by that stubborn trough sat in the eastern Atlantic which will keep things moist and fairly mild for a while, although northern blocking is set to remain more extensive than usual which means that once we get rid of that trough, we may see something wintry come our way from the NE- it looks like being a slow process though.

Strong agreement that while wintry showers will turn increasingly to snow during tomorrow and Wednesday, they will mostly be stuck out in the North Sea, with a large majority of the country dry and clear with temperatures somewhat below the seasonal average, most especially by night: http://nwstatic.co.u...b6d9dba1617f42; http://nwstatic.co.u...b6d9dba1617f42; Freezing fog may also be an issue in many areas as Ian Ferguson recently pointed out in the south-west thread. It is looking increasingly probable that our continental blocking will put up very little resistance against the Atlantic frontal systems pushing in from the SW on Thursday and Friday, although the GFS has ditched the Atlantic-driven shortwave over Scotland that it previously showed for Thursday. Precipitation towards the south-west of Britain will generally be rain at low levels as the cold continental air will struggle to fully penetrate into south-western Britain this week. There is still some potential for sleet and snow on the northern flank as the systems head through central and northern England and into Scotland, but it is almost certain to be a short-lived snow event in the areas that get snow. After the rain passes through on Friday, the UKMO, ECMWF and GFS are all agreed on a showery-looking south-westerly regime, with most of the showers concentrated over Wales and western and southern parts of England, and some also over western Scotland. Sheltered parts of eastern Scotland and north-east England will probably see very few showers, although I rather suspect that the GFS precip outputs are under-doing the inland penetration of shower activity. Some fairly high CAPE (convective available potential energy) for the time of year is showing up over the seas surrounding southern Britain: http://nwstatic.co.u...b6d9dba1617f42; This would support some scattered weak thunderstorms associated with the showery activity over the south and west of Ireland and Wales, and also near the south coast of England.

Had a fair number of rain, sleet and graupel showers at Sandhutton today, with one shower of hail too, but it's generally been the way of this winter so far that if it isn't cold enough for snow, showers get well inland, and if it is, showers stay nearer to the coast.

I remember looking forward to that northerly spell but thinking afterwards that it was rather overhyped. Snow fell and accumulated widely, but in many parts of the country it was just a dusting on the 8th/9th that subsequently melted in the sun, and it wasn't notably potent temperature-wise (the Central England Temperature dropped to around zero). On the other hand it was a very snowy spell near some north and east-facing coasts- Aberdeen had about a foot of snow, and at Lowestoft >50% snow cover was reported on 7 mornings. Near the Tyne and Wear coast there were snow showers overnight 8th/9th and 9th/10th which gave about two inches early on the 9th and one inch early on the 10th, but the daytime weather was dry and sunny with maxima of 3 or 4C resulting in some trimming of the snow cover in the sun.

I think we sometimes get a hypocritical herd mentality of, "it's wrong to want disruptive weather, except if the majority of contributors also want it", which generates the sort of taboos that you describe. I'm hoping that the recent decision to rename the main model output discussion thread to reflect its cold/snow slant, while offering alternative slower-moving threads, may help to address that problem, but we'll have to see how it pans out. It's generally in the summer when I find most starkly that one person's boring spell can be another person's exciting spell. A quiet but fairly cloudy spell on the periphery of high pressure can excite a fair number of people because it will enable people to plan outdoor activities without risk of getting wet (particularly significant in the context of recent summers) but meteorologically speaking I find such regimes rather tedious.

Thanks for that- some very interesting points, and I have to say that I was completely unaware of the possible link. I can't be sure of where their idea came from- it might be founded on experience but it is also possible to come up with a theory through ignorance that, upon close inspection, isn't without merit. I've heard the "too cold to snow" saying on scattered occasions before, although I recall a positive experience at Lancaster University when some people talked of it getting too cold for snow, and I explained about the association of cold weather with north and east winds, and thus generally dry weather for Lancaster due to shelter from the Pennines and Lake District, and they understood. The cold-dry association doesn't work very well for the eastern side of England though- I recently did a statistical analysis on Durham University's records and found a negative association between winter temperature and rainfall.

I used to make that mistake when I was much younger- though even with experience, it can be tricky to tell whether precipitation is falling as rain or sleet past a lamp post or in bright sunshine. I remember a couple of elderly people at Morecambe claiming that the showers in a sunshine-and-showers setup periodically come in off the Irish Sea because of changes in the tide. Another classic is the view that snow often struggles to lie for long near coastal fringes because of the "salty sea air". Most of the people that I've provided weather forecasts to over the years have been quite understanding about uncertainty and difficulty in getting it right all the time, but I've probably been quite lucky with my social circles there, and in addition, I have the time to explain concepts like probability and uncertainty to people who don't fully grasp them in relation to my weather predictions. Of course most media and TV forecasts are done within strict time/space constraints and so those concepts cannot be explained to people, which makes it far harder to strike the right balance between detail and confusion. I do find, though, that some people sometimes just "skim-watch/read" weather forecasts and get completely the wrong impression of what is being forecast- with those people you are damned if you do and damned if you don't!

One example of a mild zonal winter that I would hesitate to describe as "boring" was the windswept 1994/95 winter. There were numerous deep lows, active squally rain belts and some fairly lengthy polar maritime incursions characterised by sunny spells and squally blustery showers- for instance take the following chart from the 18th January: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950118.gif However, it really depends on how wide-ranging your interest in the weather is. I'm more like Terminal Moraine in that I find most types of weather interesting, but some rather more interesting than others, and a minority rather tedious. There are many others who have a narrower interest and there's nothing wrong with that either- many people develop a passing interest in the weather rather than the very intense interest that I share with the likes of Terminal Moraine. There's no doubt though that if every winter month in the UK was like January 1989 then I would not have developed the same level of interest in weather.

Lancaster had lying snow from the frontal system on the 12th, although it soon melted there. In the Tyne and Wear area the front had largely fizzled out by the time it reached the region, but prior to that, there were snow showers overnight 10th/11th January due to a weak trough in the North Sea that temporarily turned the airflow around to the NE and brought snow showers inland. I woke up to about an inch of snow on the 11th which was a surprise as the TV forecasts had suggested snow showers dying back to coastal parts of the SE, and most of it was still lying by the evening of the 12th.