Thundery wintry showers

I've had a look at the model outputs and I think there's a possibility on high ground if the low ends up quite deep and northerly tracking as per the ECMWF, but I think low-lying areas are unlikely to get snow from it. It's pretty hard to call at the moment though because of how much disagreement there is between the models despite it being just four days away.

Re. the blizzard showing in northern England in the GFS FI, it would probably only be significant on high ground- a marginal rain/sleet event would be more likely at low levels due to the lack of a strong push of cold air from the Arctic- though it's unlikely to come off as shown in any case. The north-easterly incursion showing at the end of the ECMWF operational run has a distinctly snowy look to it, while the ensemble mean continues to suggest a cold (though not remarkably so) and showery north-easterly type from T+144 out to T+240. A snowy start to December is looking increasingly probable on the basis of today's model runs, though at this range there is still plenty of scope for change either way. Before that, we have to watch out for a vicious low pressure system over the weekend which has been steadily toned up by the models over the past few runs. The ECMWF shows a strong low with strong to gale force winds and heavy rain- this could well cause real problems for the areas that are currently on flood alerts, in addition to tomorrow's rain belt- but the GFS and UKMO have a much shallower version, with the GFS version just producing some light-moderate rain over the south, so this one is worth keeping a close eye on.

The latest GFS run continues to show the heaviest and most persistent rain stuck over Wales and SW England tomorrow, leading to risk of flooding: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121121/06/36/ukprec.png Western Scotland and NW England will be less at risk because although the rain will be similarly heavy, it will pass through a lot quicker than further south. For the longer-term, I'm seeing much the same split between the GFS and ECMWF as I did last evening, with the GFS showing a cold showery northerly and chance of some marginal snowfalls inland wherever any troughs hit, though sleet/rain showers near windward coasts, while the ECMWF shows more mixing from the SE but also more potential for something snowy after T+192. The ECM ensemble mean still sides broadly with the GFS, showing a cold, showery N to NE flow and 850hPa temperatures around the -3/-4 mark which would be low enough to support marginal snowfalls inland in conjunction with any troughs, but rain/sleet near north and east-facing coasts.

With an easterly flow that has sustained for a while, it also depends on how far north you are- over Scotland and northern England the track over the North Sea is relatively lengthy so 850hPa temperatures of -1 to -3C would support surface temperatures near 5C, but over south-east England, with a short sea track, such a temperature profile will often support falling and lying snow with surface temperatures near or below zero. Another issue with that setup is that the combination of cold surface air and mild upper air tends to produce sheets of stratocumulus stuck underneath an inversion and days on end of dry cloudy weather with nothing more than a bit of drizzle or "snizzle" depending on the temperature- with that setup you need troughs/fronts to generate snowfalls as you won't get many snow showers off the North Sea. I think there is truth behind both sides of the 850hPa debate- some are being too dismissive of the possibility of marginal snow events and lamenting the lack of deep cold too much (as far as I can see, the GFS, and the ECMWF ensemble mean, both point towards marginal snow events early next week especially for central and southern areas) but it is also important for people not to be misled into believing that we'll be getting widespread snow cover before November is out, as this appears highly unlikely at the moment.

The ECMWF ensemble mean continues to place the trough to the E and SE of the British Isles feeding in a rather cold and showery-looking north to north-easterly airstream from T+168 onwards, rather like the GFS 12Z operational run: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1921.gif A fair number of wintry showers (sleet/rain near coasts, possibly snow inland especially in any heavier precipitation) can be expected if that setup comes to fruition- and no sign of significant support for anything with "mild" in the description out to T+240, judging by the mean outputs. It looks like the ECMWF operational run was a bit of an outlier in sending the main centre of the trough south-westwards. Of course with the critical period lying at T+144-192, there is scope for change but at the moment the cold showery north to north-easterly looks like the most likely outcome.

It depends on whether our initial cold is delivered from the north or east. As I indicated in my previous long-winded post, the easterly shown by the ECMWF would most likely bring a fair amount of stratocumulus/stratus trapped underneath an inversion (850hPa temperatures close to freezing and surface temps over the continent not much higher), but the northerly shown by GFS would bring clearer skies and thus more chance of overnight frost. I agree with Nick F that the GFS version could bring marginal snow events wherever we get heavy enough precipitation- I remember snow falling and settling fairly widely from trough activity with similar 850hPa temperatures in late-November 2005 and early-December 2008 and a cyclonic/northerly regime. Windward coastal areas would probably be wrong side of marginal though. On the other hand I would suggest that from where we get to at T+240, the ECMWF version has the greater snowy potential- with extensive high pressure to the north and southerly tracking lows we would probably see much colder air moving in from the NE if the run extended much further.

The above post got a lot of "likes" but I think the ground temperatures are often overstated as a factor in the likelihood of snow accumulating and sticking around. They can make a fair amount of difference in marginal situations with light snow, particularly on concrete surfaces, but most of the time, when snow struggles to settle, it's because the air temperature and humidity are a bit too high, resulting in wet snow which melts on impact with the ground. For snowfalls during the last few days of November, we would need the low pressure to be centred out in the North Sea bringing a northerly flow, as the southern Arctic Circle is currently colder than continental Europe. The ECMWF version has the low situated to the south which feeds in relatively mild 850hPa air from the east, and combined with surface cold from the continent, the most likely result would be stratus/stratocumulus trapped underneath an inversion- although from where we get to at T+240, most routes would lead to something snowy. The GFS 12Z shows what will most likely happen if the trough hangs around in the North Sea, which has so far been the scenario shown by the ECMWF ensemble mean. A north to north-easterly flow with a mix of sun and wintry showers, and occasional troughs and organised belts of precipitation moving around the low pressure. With 850hPa temperatures around -3 to -5C, I would expect just rain/sleet showers near the usual north and east-facing coasts, but any troughs that head inland could potentially bring snowfalls. Before that, as Ian Ferguson pointed out, we have some pretty serious rainfall totals to contend with in the west on Thursday, accompanied by a strong southerly wind, and the GFS has not backed down on its projections of strong to gale force winds for a time. Tonight's GFS run (and the GFS is quite reliable with precipitation outputs within 48 hours in my experience) suggests that Wales and SW England will be heaviest hit by the rain, while over western Scotland and NW England it passes through more quickly.

FI means Fantasy Island- i.e. too far out to have much confidence in what the model outputs are showing. Some people post about F1 which causes some confusion as F1 is generally used as shorthand for Formula One.

The ECMWF ensemble mean has been pretty consistent over the last couple of days in showing a north to north-easterly flow over the British Isles and 850hPa temperatures close to -5C (bearing in mind that the ECMWF often overestimates 850hPa temperatures, whereas GFS often underestimates them). From this, there would be no widespread snow cover at low levels but many places, especially in the eastern half of the country, may see sleet and snow showers. I remember sleety showers here at Sandhutton on 27th October with 850hPa temperatures having risen to around the -4C mark. Before this, as well as the issue of high rainfall totals in the west, Thursday and into early Friday look like seeing a zone of strong to gale force winds extend eastwards across the British Isles- although I think GFS may be over-egging the depression a little as the UKMO/ECMWF have the isobars slightly further apart. I see little evidence, from the model outputs or the teleconnections, that we won't keep a blocked pattern well into December, but as always it is a question of where the blocking ends up re. if we are to get widespread snow cover.

16th February 2000 was a good example in the Tyne and Wear area. http://www.wetterzen...00120000216.gif We had been forecast sunny intervals and scattered showers of rain and sleet, but an area of heavy precipitation moved into the area during early to mid afternoon, which started off as sleet but turned to snow and provided a couple of inches on the ground. It melted the next day, but it was the only significant snow event of the entire 1999/2000 season near the coast (there was lying snow inland on the 14th/15th December 1999 but it was sleety near the coast on that occasion). Christmas Day 1993, in my first year of weather recording, was another example. The day started bright and frosty with no snow on the ground, but increasingly frequent and heavy snow showers moved in off the North Sea after 11am, and gave a significant covering by the end of the afternoon. I'm told that the showers turned back to sleet/rain near coastal fringes (e.g. at Tynemouth and the shores of South Shields) but Cleadon was just far inland enough for it to remain as snow. http://www.wetterzen...00119931226.gif And there was the very recent one on the 26th/27th October 2012- my first sighting of snow in October, after having expected showers to hug the east coast and fall mainly as rain and sleet, they unexpectedly headed well inland over North Yorkshire and gave a dusting on the ground for a time.

There is a fundamental issue with the latter stages of the ECMWF output though- continental Europe is still pretty mild at around T+120 to T+168, and as long as that remains the case, any easterly flow off the continent is unlikely to be cold enough for widespread snowfall. For this reason, any widespread snowfall before the end of November would have to come from the north rather than the east. However, with a strong likelihood of blocked patterns dominating as we head towards December, snowy easterlies may become a possibility further along the line, particularly if we get a surge of Arctic air into the near-continent- this will be likely if the mid-Atlantic block migrates to our north. For what it's worth, I'd expect sunshine and wintry showers (snow to low ground in the north) from the initial northerly on the ECMWF run followed by a transition to mainly grey weather and some rain/sleet in the east from the subsequent easterly.

Indeed- if someone kept clearing my garden whenever it snowed then I'd consider it as inconsiderate and violating "give and take" principles to say the very least (especially as when I get snow in my garden, it doesn't just look pretty, it gets used for recording Met Office "snow days" and building snowmen among other things). Fortunately I haven't had such an experience and doubt that I ever will!

My favourite "snow moment" is typically when we get a heavy snow shower move in during those "sunshine and snow showers" setups, when the sun goes in, the sky darkens, the visibility drops abruptly and then the snowflakes start coming down- sometimes it can be pretty dramatic stuff. It also helps if snow cover is already established on the ground, as it makes things look very "different" and often enhances the dramatic nature of the weather when the snow showers move over. Another favourite is when we get bright sunshine accompanied by a deep snow cover and all the trees and bushes being white. I find it pretty "cosy" feeling. Re. clearing the snow away, it's a tricky one as sometimes clearing snow away from roads and paths makes it a lot easier for people to drive, walk and cycle around without slipping, as long as they don't use the "half-baked gritting" approach leaving ugly and dangerous patches of brown ice everywhere- but it does spoil the snowy landscape, especially when grit is involved. Generally the nearest green areas are best for experiencing a snowy wonderland. My ideal winter is not dissimilar to the above- a fair number of snow events lasting for 3 to 6 days (perhaps one longer one over Christmas/New year) and the occasional briefer event thrown in there, but separated by mild interludes. It rarely happens in reality as such a winter would require an "episodic" type of synoptic pattern, whereas in reality certain synoptic patterns have a habit of persisting for long periods.

I feel that Chinomaniac's comments about increased northern blocking are starting to be reflected by the model outputs. The ECMWF operational and ensemble mean both hint at increased northern blocking towards day 10, with the main focus of blocking initially around the eastern North Atlantic sector, and the GFS 06Z operational run agrees. Although the critical period is outside of the reliable timeframe, it is unusual to get such strong agreement between GFS and ECMWF (and including the ECMWF ensembles) at that sort of range. The UKMO run doesn't go far enough but the Atlantic systems certainly look like slowing down towards T+144. Generally such setups entail colder-than-average weather, but whether it ends up snowy or not depends on where the blocking ends up. Before that, we have a week of traditional mild and moist November weather to come up, with cloudy and wet weather for most on Monday and Tuesday, while there will be a "window" of dry and sunny weather spreading from the west on Wednesday and retreating eastwards on Thursday. Temperatures won't be excessively high though- perhaps a couple of degrees up on the seasonal average generally.

I think your position is actually quite typical of most of the "all-year-round" contributors on this forum, though perhaps earlier in the season than most. As someone who welcomes northerlies with sunshine and snow showers all year round, I increasingly find myself in the minority as we head through March and into April, although as we saw in 2008, snow events continue to generate a lot of interest well into April. Meanwhile, here's a snowy chart, albeit an ancient one, to stir up the appetite: http://www.wetterzen...00118810120.gif Can anyone find a more impressive one than that?

I knew there was some sort of falling-out involving Bill Giles but didn't recall that Richard Edgar and David Lee were involved, but I can find some archived news articles from 1999 which confirm it: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/537880.stm I found Bill Giles's forecasts quite good as well, but preferred some of the other presenters.

I was a fan of the 1980s generation too. Having seen various 1990s forecasts uploaded by Kevin, I found a fair number of them particularly "engaging"- Michael Fish, Ian McCaskill, John Kettley, Richard Edgar and David Lee (the last two are rarely mentioned but I used to really like their forecasts too). Rob McElwee was also good but in relative terms I didn't find him quite as good as the other aforementioned ones. I don't think the modern weekday-forecast package with its low time allocation, most of which is spent panning around the country in detail at 8am, really gives the presenters the chance to shine, but the Countryfile broadcasts give them more scope to show their skills. I think there's a strong case for Peter Gibbs being the best of today's generation of presenters, but I think of Tomasz Shafernaker as being one of the better ones.

I remember this event quite well. The Tyne and Wear area had an unexpected snowfall early on the 6th, with a couple of inches for a time even near the coast, but it thawed after mid-morning as the snow petered out and the air temperature rose to around 3C. The second batch that moved in late in the day fell as rain, but would have turned to snow as it progressed northwards.

The GFS 18Z outputs are not implausible, but they do represent the coldest/snowiest-case scenario out of a wide range of possibilities for the last week of November. I notice that there are hints of an evolution in that direction at the end of the ECMWF operational run, but as we saw in January 2006 and February 2007, even if we do get high pressure ridging across to the north, the Atlantic trough may end up strong enough and far north/east enough to keep the cold continental air at bay.

Looking over tonight's model runs I see very little evidence of increased blocking within the next 10 days- the trend has been to shift the Atlantic trough a bit further east, keeping us under the influence of Atlantic weather systems. The ECMWF and UKMO in particular have done some backtracking. I still think they may be overdoing the eastward extension of the trough, but I may have to change my mind if they continue showing this tomorrow. Interestingly, some of the Atlantic air that is progged to head our way is cooler than the continental air that is close by. For example, take the following GFS chart for T+120: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121112/06/126/h850t850eu.png 850hPa values are around +5C on the near-Continent and nearer -5C out to the west. Of course, continental air tends to be much colder (relatively speaking) near the surface relative to the 850hPa temperature values, but not usually by 8-10 degrees. On the whole a pretty average outlook is shown by the model outputs with Atlantic weather systems moving across at intervals but with temperatures generally near, rather than above, the seasonal average.

I see that I'm not on either- I'd like to be added too please, my current postcode begins YO7.

A quieter interlude coming up for most of us this week, although with it being well into November, there's no guarantee that the weather under the high pressure will be dry and sunny- the current satellite images show a fair amount of cloud over continental Europe at the moment. Sunshine will generally be variable in my opinion, but in these situations it isn't unusual to have some locations sunny for days on end and others dull for days on end. Cloud and rain over northern and western Ireland and Scotland will gradually fade out during Tuesday/Wednesday. The long-term signals, to me, are indicating persistent high pressure over central Europe and into Scandinavia, with low pressure rooted to the mid to eastern Atlantic. A brief wet interlude is likely on Friday/Saturday as another low pressure system pushes eastwards, but broadly speaking I think the outlook for most of the next fortnight is a quiet one for much of England and eastern Scotland. The north and west of Britain (mainly the west) will always be more prone to belts of rain off the Atlantic. The ECMWF ensemble mean places the mean trough further east than the operational run, but quite often the models are too progressive at bringing the Atlantic trough further east, and the NOAA 8-14 day outlook supports the ECMWF operational run. I retain a feeling that there won't be any snowy weather for at least another 10-15 days. Beyond around 25 November, it might be a different story, as these setups with a block to the east do sometimes evolve into something snowy if we get a general build of pressure to the north allowing the Scandinavian high to retrogress, but at this range any talk of a widespread snowy spell is speculative. On the other hand, if the block holds firm to the east, temperatures in central and eastern Britain will probably end up close to or a little below average during the coming fortnight.

My favourite one was the notion that we'd get a white Christmas in the Tyne and Wear area (in the sense of significant lying snow at some point during the day) if Daffy Duck's Quackbusters was broadcast on TV. That piece of weather lore had a 100% success rate from 1993-2008 but failed abysmally in 2009 and more especially 2010.

I don't like the hostility towards the slightest hint of 'mild' either. I think it reflects a popular interest only in one or two types of weather, which is fine in itself, but I find it difficult when it is made clear that interest in other types of weather doesn't have a place in the discussion. The sense of disappointment at not getting snow is a different matter though- it's like the disappointment most of us feel when we've been invited to a special event and have really looked forward to it, only for last-minute complications to prevent us from attending. The pain may be only short-lived but it can be pretty intense at the time of the setback. That's part of the reason why I advise against getting too carried away prior to a possible forthcoming snow event, for if expectations are initially high, then subsequent disappointment is often particularly high (and I've been bitten by this many times in the past).

There was some snow on the night of the 31st January/1st February at Cleadon too, it provided about 80% snow cover at 7am although it had reduced to less than 50% cover by 9am. The month's only other instance of sleet/snow falling at Cleadon was on the evening of the 28th, so there was a "symmetry" about it- snow at the beginning and end of an otherwise record-breaking warm month. In the CET zone it was not quite the warmest February on record, but in Tyneside it was comfortably the warmest winter month of the twentieth century, as generally windier conditions and slightly more cloud than further south resulted in a higher average minimum. Ironically, in the days leading up to February 1998, I recall a fair few forecasts (including one by Bob Johnson at ITV North East and a couple of BBC regional ones) suggesting a very wintry start to February as the northerly incursion on the 2nd/3rd was modelled to be more potent and longer-lasting, though browsing through the BBC national forecast uploads it seems that they rightly refrained from ramping it up.