Thundery wintry showers

I agree with Millhouse here- the GFS 18Z actually looks very similar to the 12Z to me, with a front giving dull damp conditions over most of England and Wales on Tuesday, retreating to southern England on Wednesday allowing other areas to brighten up, and Thursday/Friday look sunny and dry for almost everywhere bar a few isolated showers. Meanwhile, many parts of Scotland look likely to be predominantly dry and bright from Tuesday onwards.

Thanks for these again- the New Year's Day forecast supported my earlier comments about recollections of Cleadon's weather that day, with the finger of snow showers at 10-11am over Tyne and Wear showing up clearly on the radar. They appeared to be associated with a trough heading NNW-SSE rather than heading inland off the North Sea though, another instance of where memory played some tricks. The northerly outbreak on the 11th January 1995, in contrast, was one of those useless (for snow lovers) 24-36 hour topplers. Will be interesting to see what the forecasters say about that spell around the 18th-24th January 1995- a good spell of weather for those who like a good "blow" from the Atlantic. I remember watching the BBC forecasts a lot around that period checking whether the gales and blustery showers would be likely to make it over the Pennines, but I don't specifically remember any of the forecasts.

Not much here in N Yorkshire today bar two sharp showers, but the GFS precipitation outputs didn't suggest much over England for today, with the weekend holding the majority of the potential. Not too surprised by the reports of a fine day btw; I think it's fairly common for central and eastern regions to get some generally dry sunny days out of this synoptic setup with the low pressure sat to the west, although it usually turns more showery as the low drifts eastwards. The occluded front wrapped around the depression no longer looks to have much frontal cloud associated with it, and in fact coincided with some thundery activity over Ireland today, so I doubt that it will inhibit convection tomorrow over England and Wales.

The ECMWF ensemble mean shows more support for the build of pressure midweek than this morning, so there has been a pretty consistent shift towards the building high on this evening's runs. The area of frontal rain for Tuesday/Wednesday that I mentioned earlier affects most of England and Wales on Tuesday giving a dull wet day but retreats south on Wednesday on the latest GFS run, so still some way to go before we can pin down where the front will land and how potent it will be. However, that front represents the only barrier to most parts of Britain having between two and five days (depending on the high's duration) of dry, sunny and at least moderately warm weather, possibly turning hot in the south late in the period as the high pulls away to the NE. The longer-term outlook looks more reminiscent of June and early to mid July with likelihood of a mid-Atlantic ridge and a trough near the British Isles, but significantly, this pattern currently lies out at T+180 onwards, so there is no guarantee that it won't be delayed further as we get nearer the time. Meanwhile, no change in the outlook for the next three days with slow-moving thundery showers likely over a wide area during the weekend, becoming restricted to the eastern half of the country on Monday, while most of us can expect a fair amount of sunshine early and late on each of the three days, but cloudier afternoons as the showers and thunderstorms take off. Current satellite imagery suggests that the "wrap-around" occlusion is no longer associated with much frontal cloud and may rather serve to pep up the shower activity.

Dry and sunny this morning, a sharp shower at around 1pm, then turned mostly cloudy with occasional bright intervals, with extensive Cu and Sc, perhaps reflecting relatively "stabilised" air ahead of the occlusion coming into the west. Should be more "active" convection-wise tomorrow. A max of 20.6C in the sunshine early on, currently 19.7C. Overnight it got down to a fairly cool 10.2C.

We may be getting high pressure next week but it is looking less and less likely that it will bring the widely-desired dry sunny weather to a large majority of the country, unless it sticks around beyond the end of the week. Persistent precipitation lies across northern England from Tuesday-Thursday on this run: http://cdn.nwstatic..../132/ukprec.png Re. Shedhead's post, it's a warmer fine interlude in the south of the country, but from the Midlands northwards, cloud associated with that slow-moving front keeps daytime temperatures down. For a widespread dry sunny interlude we would need to see that frontal system toned down, although to the south of it, it could still be sunny and quite hot like happened in the 21-25 July spell. On the ECMWF version we also appear to have that trough around on Wednesday but it fizzles out by Thursday which would presumably allow sunny and mostly dry weather to develop. However the ECM ensemble mean is more in line with the GFS 06Z version. I am currently feeling a need to be cautious regarding the surface weather that the high midweek next week will give us, more so than with the low pressure for the next three days which still looks like bringing sunny intervals and slow moving thundery downpours.

Convection/storm lovers look like getting a treat over the next few days, with a quieter spell next week, so looks like something for many of us over the coming week despite teleconnections that are quite reminiscent of most of the summer so far. Probably not too many showers around today, but over the weekend heavy showers and thunder look set to be widespread, and then mainly in eastern areas on Monday. Pressure looks like building from the south towards midweek next week which will help to kill off the shower activity, but despite the high pressure it will not be straightforward as we do have an area of persistent rain to watch, which may affect southern and western Britain on Tuesday and into Wednesday: http://cdn.nwstatic..../114/ukprec.png Once we get that out of the way, sunny spells and well-scattered showers looks like being the outcome under the relatively weak area of high pressure. The westward shift of the high reduces the chance of a thundery breakdown as others are noting, while at the same time reduces the likelihood of heat being pulled up from the south, although the models are suggesting that the high on its own would give moderate warmth with temperatures in the low 20s.

Here's a recap on my month-ahead forecast for July: [quote]With pressure often high in the Arctic and low pressure systems taking a relatively southerly track, it will be another cool cloudy wet month, though probably not as cloudy or wet as June was. July has commenced cloudy and wet, but as we head through the first week the emphasis will shift towards sunny intervals mixed with slow-moving thundery downpours. The 3rd July will have an area of cloud and persistent rain moving through Wales and most of the southern half of England, while northern England, Ireland and Scotland will be bright with showers. Between the 4th and 7th July slow-moving showers will be heavy and thundery, particularly in north-east England on the 4th, though not quite as severe as some places experienced back on the 28th June. South-eastern Britain will see relatively few showers and a fair amount of sunshine in between. Another exception will be northern Scotland which will be rather grey and cool with rain at times. Temperatures will range between 18 and 22C for most parts of the country, not far from the seasonal norm. Sunshine amounts for the first week will probably be close to or just below average, while rainfall will vary widely, though mostly above normal away from south-east England. During the second week of July the low pressure area will drift out into the North Sea, allowing a chilly north to north-easterly airflow to dominate over the British Isles, with temperatures below normal everywhere. Under the influence of the low, most of central and southern England will see further showers and an increasing chance of longer spells of rain, and the period will thus be considerably wetter and cloudier than average in those areas. Northern and western areas, closer to the high pressure, will turn drier during the second week, with sunshine and rainfall amounts consequently close to normal in the west (perhaps above normal in western Scotland), but much below normal in the east. There are signs that towards the third week, the low pressure to the south-east will weaken and this will allow highest pressure to transfer southwards towards the Azores. As a result, we will start to see a north-south split across the UK; most of Scotland and northern England will be cloudy and quite cool with some rain at times, particularly in the west, but southern areas will see some drier, brighter and warmer interludes due to being close to a ridging Azores High. Temperatures and sunshine amounts will probably only be close to average though. Any particularly warm, sunny weather is likely to be reserved for the last third of July. The general emphasis is likely to remain on changeable conditions with low pressure systems tracking across at intervals, but one or two interludes of warm, drier and possibly sunnier weather are likely, most especially over southern parts of the British Isles. On the whole, the last third of July is likely to be statistically near-average for temperatures, rainfall and sunshine, though with the east drier and sunnier relative to normal than the west. July 2012 is likely to be another fairly cool summer month, with a Central England Temperature of 16.0C. Temperatures are likely to range from 1.0-1.5C below the 1981-2010 average in northern Scotland, to around 0.5C below in most other parts of the British Isles. It will be another wet month; the first half will be particularly wet in north-east England, while the second half will be wet in the north-west, but not generally as wet as June. Rainfall is expected to range from 40-80% above normal over much of Scotland and north-east England to just 0-20% above in south-east England. Sunshine will range from near normal in southern England to 30-40% below in north-east Scotland, while other regions will generally have a small shortage of around 10-20%. [/quote] I feel that this was certainly one of my better forecasts, with most of the right weather patterns correctly identified- in particular the suggestion of one or two warm dry sunny interludes towards the south in the last third of the month did indeed materialise. However, I somewhat overestimated sunshine amounts during the first week- the low pressure ended up further south than I expected and as a result the weather ended up exceptionally cloudy in most regions rather than just the northern half of Scotland as predicted.

Statistics for Sandhutton, North Yorkshire Mean max 20.0C Mean min 12.0C Mean temp 16.0C Highest max 25.9C (24th) Lowest max 15.9C (9th) Highest min 15.8C (4th, 18th) Lowest min 7.4C (31st) Total precipitation 75mm Wettest: 19mm (6th) Days >= 1mm rain: 12 Days of thunder: 2 Days of hail, fog, gale: 0 My first month based in North Yorkshire was an exceptionally dull one- even the warm settled spell around the 21st-25th was predominantly cloudy- but sunshine amounts did pick up during the last five days of the month. There were a large number of dull, mainly dry days where cloud cover prevented convective cells from shooting up, although there were two days with thunder, one with distant rumbles (4th) and one with an overhead storm (11th) which saw a rare morning of sunshine and showers give way to a mainly cloudy wet afternoon. With 75mm rain it was a wet month but not exceptionally so. I have not provided estimated long-term averages for this site yet as I suspect that the sheltered nature of the site is resulting in generally higher readings than at nearby RAF Topcliffe and Leeming, so will need to compare the differences over time in order to be able to come up with estimated averages for this particular site. For what it's worth, though, Tutiempo.net stats suggest that RAF Topcliffe has not had an average maximum below 20C in July since 2007, and has not had a comparably high average minimum since 2006, so the strong implication is cool days and warm nights as would generally be expected during such a cloudy month.

Interestingly, the last third of July over England and Wales was dry and sunny but fairly cool: http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html Sunshiine totals in much of Scotland and northern England were languishing at between 35% and 55% of normal for 1st-25th July, so presumably the bright showery end to the month helped to raise totals in those regions, while further south a dry sunny spell followed by a bright showery one produced a considerable excess of sunshine. Nonetheless, the exceptionally dull weather up until the 20th prevented any regions from reaching average amounts of sunshine. Temperatures, despite the warm interlude in the last third, clearly stayed below all recent 30-year averages including the old 1961-90 one.

A fair assessment Phil. The NOAA 8-14 day outlooks and the ECMWF ensembles are pointing towards a mid-Atlantic high setup as we head towards the middle of August, and the jet is still on a southerly track, but nonetheless the synoptics look like playing out such that we get some rather more "summery" weather than in previous unsettled regimes, assisted by a weaker jet, higher thicknesses to the south and lower thicknesses to the north. The next few days continue to look like producing sunshine mixed with slow-moving thundery showers, bar a possible cloudier 12-hour interlude for some via the weak occlusion around the centre of the low, and then pressure does look highly likely to build around midweek next week. Some words of caution as it is unclear how long-lasting the high will be (the ECMWF ensemble mean is less convincing than any of the operational runs) and it will probably be quite a weak affair, but at the very least we are likely to pull some warm air up from the south.

Mostly dry with sunny intervals this morning, generally cloudier afternoon with the occasional spot of rain, now a heavy shower overhead. Currently 17.7C, after afternoon max of 23.4C (though getting a sense that the readings from my back garden may be rather on the high side at this new location).

We had sunshine and showers here yesterday afternoon, somewhat to my surprise, as the frontal rain broke up and allowed sunny intervals through. Today looks like being mostly dry with sunny intervals until mid-afternoon, perhaps some showers later on.

Sorry Shedhead, but I'm afraid I can't agree with you that all "unsettled" weather should be written off as abysmal, and I don't like the way you make out that your opinions are speaking for the vast majority of others- it is this sort of attitude that puts people interested in other types of weather off from posting in this thread. It is actually pretty important to distinguish between different types of "unsettled" weather. Media forecasters who talk apologetically of dull wet weather giving way to sunshine and showers maintaining the awful unsettled weather are quite often bitten when regions of the country end up mostly sunny with just one or two showers and people wonder what all the doom and gloom was about. Today, for instance, many parts of Scotland look like seeing a mostly dry sunny day and they aren't exactly in the south-eastern corner. Many parts of the country may also see sunny intervals and not many showers tomorrow too, though shower activity will pep up in most regions into the weekend. And what about the possible anticyclonic interlude next week? If the GFS and ECMWF operationals verify some parts may well end up sunny with 24-27C.

I note that the N-W homepage states that "sunshine and showers" could've been forecast on 9 out of 10 days this summer- my only question there is, where was the sun? In the next few days the only likely complication will be a weak occluded front in the middle of the low, which might bring an interlude of cloudier showery conditions into the west late on Friday, spreading north and east during Saturday; otherwise it does look likely to be rather brighter than we've seen from other depressions this summer. At present it looks like there is a small chance of heavy thundery showers in southern and eastern England today, fewer showers tomorrow (probably in conjunction with that approaching occlusion from the west which may stabilise the airmass a little) and then more widespread slow-moving thundery downpours on Saturday and Sunday. I am in agreement with Weather Boy that there is a fair chance of some weak high pressure asserting itself over western/central Europe around midweek next week. There are question marks over whether it will develop mainly to the east (as per the ECMWF ensemble mean) or over us (as per ECMWF and GFS operational runs), but either way, there is a significant possibility of some generally warm dry sunny weather setting in for a couple of days and then a breakdown from the west, which may or may not be thundery. The GFS has maxima of around 27C in the south and the ECMWF outputs show a similar thing. I can only say, I'm afraid, that the "the vast majority of people are only after high pressure and write off anything else as un-summery" sort of comments are no different to the ones re. snow in winter. They reinforce the exaggerated homogeneity of views in this thread as they make people interested in other types of weather feel unwelcome. The overall synoptic pattern might not look appealing for "summery" prospects but what really matters is the surface weather. The period 14-18 July 1995 was, synoptically speaking, quite similar to what the models are showing for the coming week, and it was hardly a washout.

Recent attempts at "sunshine and showers with thunder" type setups have tended to produce extensive cloud cover and, consequently, not much convection, and nothing particularly "summery". I'm hopeful, though, that the upcoming spell will be different- the satellite images show largely clear skies behind the fronts which is certainly consistent with something brighter/showery in the days to come.

A grey morning, then some showery rain spread in during the afternoon but, surprisingly, so did some sunny intervals. Max temperature 21.1C during the first of the sunny intervals, at around 1:10pm.

Apologies for late entry- 15.9 please.

I don't really remember much about November 1994, apart from forecasts talking of daily highs of 10-14 degrees, wondering if we were ever going to get a wintry spell (especially after the severity of late-November 1993) and a rare cold bright frosty day on the 29th. In contrast to most other parts of the UK, the Tyne and Wear area had close to average sunshine and consequently the average minimum was not as high as in most other regions- consequently November 2011 ended up even warmer there. Subsequently, December 1994 was a mild month but I wouldn't quite call it "boring"- it had a fair number of notable events, including a few gales, an exceptional mild interlude in the second week and that cold frosty spell before Christmas, and most places were quite sunny despite frequent wind and rain.

I certainly agree with "one person's 'horror show' is another's 'Utopia' after all". When I see dull wet conditions showing and described as "dire unsettled dross" I might agree, but when I see the same terms used to describe sunshine and showers with possible thunder (traditionally my favourite type of weather) I don't react very well. The audience for this thread is nothing like as homogeneous in terms of preferred weather types as some posts infer. This low pressure does look set to produce a much brighter, showery spell of weather than the slow-moving low we had at the start of July- the main slow-moving fronts will be trapped to the north of Scotland while the current satellite images show largely clear skies behind today's fronts, rather than the embedded swirls of cloud we had with the early-July low. There is still a potential complication with a wrap-around occlusion which may bring a 12-hour spell of cloudier conditions for some over the weekend, depending on how much strength it maintains as the low fills, but it doesn't look likely to hang around for long. Thunder could well become quite widespread over much of England and east Wales during the weekend. Next week is currently unclear, as we have a ridge of high pressure building from the south followed by another southerly tracking low, but the jet looks rather weaker than it has been earlier in the summer so it's not quite the same setup as we were seeing in June. The questions are how long the ridge will last, and how far east the low will get- if it fills to our west we could suck some warm air up from the south as per this morning's operational ECMWF run.

Sticking my neck out a little for Friday and the weekend, the movement of the low pressure and associated fronts suggests a bright, showery and fairly warm day for eastern areas on Friday (continuing on from Thursday) but with cloudier conditions and showery rain for western areas associated with the trailing occluded front, and these cloudier conditions will probably move into eastern areas on Saturday with brighter showery weather returning in the west. For Sunday, at this range, looks like being back to straightforward sun/showers.

To my mind this thread generally mutates into a high pressure watch when subjectivity and teeth-gnashing are rife. Similar to how the fabled "Scandi" high is assumed to bring lots of snow in winter and anything involving a westerly is written off, a high pressure in summer is assumed to bring warm dry sunny weather while anything involving low pressure is written off. When posts become focused more on model output analysis, as was generally the case about a week or two ago, those over-simplistic perceptions and biases are less prominent. There may well be something for the convection/storm lovers to watch out for tomorrow in northern England as the cold front pushes eastwards and collides with fairly warm humid air, although the emphasis will be on frontal type rain with some additional heavier showery bursts. In the meantime some sunshine is likely to break through over East Anglia and the southeast which may produce highs of 22-24C. Subsequently, Thursday looks like being a straightforward day of sunshine and showers, most of the showers in central and southern parts of England, and with highs of 19-22C. The detail for Friday onwards continues to look unclear due to a weak front wrapped around the depression which may introduce cloudier conditions at times with showers merging into longer spells of rain, as well as suppressing significant thunder potential (a common theme during this cloudy summer in general). However this low looks like being a bit weaker and further north than the one at the start of July as it slides across the British Isles so it probably won't generally be as cloudy as the first fortnight of July was, and daytime temperatures will probably be a little higher at around 18-22C. "Unsettled" is certainly a fair assessment; sunshine and rainfall amounts though will be hard to pin down.

This is a thread about what types of weather people like, so I don't see anything wrong with people expressing desire to have summers that aren't representative of the UK norm. After all, given that the UK traditionally experiences a large number of dry but cloudy days and has more frequent frontal rather than convective rainfall, it's hardly as if my version tallies with the expected norm in the UK either!

Reminds me of what happened over a large swathe of central and southern Britain on the 30th June 1995- a weak cold front swept southwards and brought very little cloud and no rain, but an instant temperature drop.

I am able to find at least some interest in most types of weather, with the notable exception of stratus/stratocumulus sheets. Sunny spells mixed with convective precipitation goes down as my favourite overall type of weather, particularly when there are dramatic downpours with snow, hail and/or thunder. Dry with plentiful sunshine ranks second. In terms of synoptics I prefer a mixture, some anticyclonic spells (but preferably not cloudy anticyclones), some mild showery west to south-westerlies, some cold showery Arctic incursions with winds vectored between NW and ENE, and some warm southerlies. In winter this would ideally give us alternating mild and cold spells with some snowfalls in the cold spells, while in summer, we'd be talking a mix of warm dry sunny spells, hot thundery spells and cooler bright showery spells. In spring and autumn, an "episodic" mix with some wintry showers during the Arctic outbreaks but also some tastes of summer when we get southerlies.