damianslaw

A couple of hours of moderate to heavy rain, petered out around 7pm to leave a fine clear sunny evening. The length of daylight now means a few poor hours of cloud and rain can easily be cancelled out by a few hours of fine sunny dry weather, often the case, with good mornings and evenings and poor showery afternoons.

Scuba steve Yes, rain arrived an hour or so ago, now we have a downpour, dark skies and a mass of convective activity to our east and north east, could be quite a deluge next hour or two.

In the short term, the ridge set to build tomorrow does appear to be a rather flimsy weak affair, and a light atlantic pull on its west and north west flank will result in the classic NW- SE divide, NW cloudy and damp, SE clearer settled conditions. Scotland fairs worse with dull drizzly skies at times. By the weekend the atlantic trough inching in from the west against the ridge, SE parts could turn very warm briefly as a southerly drift moves in, by early next week, rain from the west. Temps will stay above average into next week away from the NW, May 24 likely to be a notably warm first half but not on the scale of first half of April in terms of deviation from the norm. Overall England about to see a fine spell of almost early summer warmth, the sun now is as strong as late July.

Early showery rain, dry since mid morning albeit overcast though cloud us high. Whether we see any thundery downpours remains to be seen, lots of activity N Cumbria and Pennines. A warm week ahead, mid week looking finest, with sunny spells, may turn wet by the weekend. 3 fine days and a thunderstorm..

Left a damp dank Windermere this morning and greeted by a dry sunny Southport at lunchtime. Returning to Windermere this evening greeted by high level cloud and dry ground. Tomorrow will be a case of radar watching and seeing sudden shower clouds spring up out of nowhere.

Could be an odd spring, a very wet dull but one of warmest on record. Lack of clear skies preventing cold minima, and all the cloud and rain associated with very mild maritime air aided by exceptional warm SSTs to our SW. If it does end up mildest ever, it won't be remembered fondly by most.

Summer of 95 A good case I feel, a brief SW flow on the 10th-11th but pushed back by a SE flow a day later. Indeed second half of the month very blocked. It came in the midst of a very blocked period commenced March 95 lasting through to Jan 97. Dec 95 to May 96 was cold. Similiarities with 1986, 2010 and 2013.

Large variance between GFS 12z and ECM at the 10 day range, not unusual, but the fact they are opposite each other suggests models are struggling. The GFS eventually pulls in an atlantic trough, ECM much sooner. All conjecture given the timeframes, the GFS had a retrogressive signal then dropped the ridge SE, now it advects it NE.. none the wiser. In the meantime, from Tuesday onwards high pressure building over the UK bringing first nationwide fine settled warm spell, pity it is due to arrive after bank holiday.

Perpetual persistant fine drizzle all day, low cloud, cool, max 12 degrees, the SW airstream must be back.. preety grim day all round.

A damp start, looks like we had a decent dose of rain overnight. A very slow clearance of cloud expected with drizzle on and off.

SqueakheartLW Dec 10 brought a brief NW flow 3-4th and an atlantic influence 10th-12th and a south west flow 27th, doesn't fit the bill. Feb 86 probably the most recent completely non atlantic month.

A light shortlived dousing of rain at teatime otherwise a dry day, contrary to the forecasts. There is a batch of heavy convective rain over E Yorkshire whether it makes it here remains to be seen..

SunSean Shap bottom, abysmal month for sunshine here.

Not often Cumbria is England warm spot but that's the case today, 18.2 degrees, Keswick. Bit of a fohn effect, but confused as weather icons show a SW wind??? Its stayed dry so far here, a far better day up to now than forecast.

Large mass of heavy convective rain over the borders right now, then a wedge of nothing through NE England, Cumbria and far northnof yorkshire, then another dollop of rain over west and south yorkshire and south pennines. Further south appears to be a frontal feature. Wasn't the front supposed to be further north and those convective showers over the border further south. Seems the weather has fooled the computers today.

Bats32 Yes perhaps the far NW will be exposed to a damp atlantic flow.

Near term, a slow moving shallow low trough will aid shower development over the bank holiday. Unusually the warmest air currently is over NW locations, quite a strange set up. Some places will escape with a fine weekend, others could see a fair amount of rain. Western parts will see low cloud and drizzle tomorrow. Temps average or above for all. Sunshine could be fairly limited for most. Could be alot worse but also a fair better. Next week likely to bring the first nationwide fine warm dry spell, warm but not especially so, hopefully lots of sunshine and under the ridge with light winds will feel very good indeed. Difficult to pinpoint cloud amounts and where will see the highest temps. Later in the week, SE parts may see more appreciable warmth. Where we go as we head into the middle of the month is questionable, longer range models were suggesting a retrogressive high and a cooler northerly flow, but are now showing the ridge sink SE allowing the atlantic to move through. No obvious signal we are seeing the foundations for a lengthy warm dry spell, but I guess most will be happy to experience a few days of such conditions at least. Here, we have seen a preety decent couple of weeks other than Monday its been dry, often can be the case NW is best at this time of year.

Chris.R May be some homegrown convective activity this afternoon, the warm uppers will aid instability.. could be a few very localised downpours, has that feel about things.

Expected this morning to be quite grey and the forecast is for showers, bone dry so far, high level cloud and sun trying to burst through and a temp of 15.7 degrees already, mmm have the forecasters got today right? Not complaining..

Wade Over twice the normal rainfall in much of Cumbria combined with well below average sunshine cancels out the mild temps, indeed only a little above average, especially given they coincided with rain and dull windy weather. A very poor month, bit of a shocker given April is often our driest month with decent sunshine. The dry weather at the end was far too cold to enjoy.

Yes I predicted spot on! 9.6 degrees.

Think today warmest of the year so far, 22 degrees Cambridge. Anyone corroborate?

Warmest day of year so far, 18.6 degrees. Hello the wonderful month of May.

WYorksWeather Surprised only 25 degrees for Manchester needs to be breached 3 days, same as Highland Scotland, I think Manchester and W Yorkshire should be 26 degrees.

May tomorrow! Firmly a month in the driest half of the year, sunniest quarter of the year, and marks the start of the warmest half of the year, yes April is colder than October, and generally is the best month of the year, just edges June (in my opinion), what's not to like! Its the antithesis to its opposite compatriot, November! There is strong semblence in the opposing forcing effects of the calandar months - Jan (hard winter state), July (heady summer state) Feb ( winter hangover), August (summer fadeness) March (spring sluggishness), September (mellow wistfulness) April (spring flourish), October (Autumn glory) May (green goodness), November (decay drabness) December ( festive darkness), June ( golden lightness)