Eugene

The past few weeks developments clearly show that it's in your own interest to trust your own thoughts ahead of the models, use them for guidance yes but never be hooked in by them so much especially after 3 to 5 days, some models were going for HP domination over the UK and some very warm temps(they never really going for a heatfest to be honest) before downgrading and picking up GP's retrogression ideas though HP retrogressed more northeastwards than even he thought.

Most models are currently showing a strong retrogressing high to our northeast, allowing LP in from the SW as i did say 4 days ago. Well the models are allowing it for end of the week so not sure what you on about here maybe you are looking way ahead of that

I don't see any heatfest on GFS 12Z and ECM 12Z for early September, you need more than just HP in September for heat. The main three models are trending towards GP's retrogression towards greenland thoughts.

Yes for the midlands the average date for the first air frost is late October/early November but ground frost is late September/early October but i have recorded many ground frosts(temps around 3C) in a valley near me this summer in every month so countryside valley areas i'm sure can record air frosts even in September if we get a cool PM airmass followed by a ridge of HP, it is much harder to record frosts in urban areas nowadays before mid October but just outside in the countryside its much easier, i am still amazed how different it feels just a mile or two outside of town even in the summer, walking in built up areas nothing that chilly but you hit the countryside and the chill really hits you especially in low areas.

In quite a few places May 23rd is still the warmest day of the year i know it is in edgbaston birmingham with 26.9C showing you it hasnt been that great of a summer for most as you would expect the highest temp in July or August. In the midlands 27C has been the highest temp all year, i will now say very confidently no 28C+ will be recorded this year in the west midlands.

Wow i have to say i completely agree conor. But i think this years September will be disappointing and not make up for the poor July/August in the west midlands, hopefully October will make up for it but of course any heat then is very rare indeed especially after the first week.

You must be grateful you live on Edge Hill where summer is very pleasant most of the time, no nasty urban heat of lower Warwickshire to your north to contend with

I went for cold wet with gales for Autumn and more snow and colder than last year for Winter. To be honest i like a mixture of weather types in Autumn, i am hoping for alot of northerly blocking around bringing crisp airflows over the UK as well as cyclonic westerlies but more north of west than south of west so to avoid any horrible TM airmasses have had enough of them this summer,definately thre worst airmass there is anytime of year.

Well overall the runs aren't downgrading the potential settled weather that much but yes the very warm temps of over 25C outside of the SE yes are being downgraded as some cooler 850's are pulled into the mix upto next sunday at least anyway and after that is proper FI. I wish Autumn was here as this nondescript summer weather is very tiresome, i'm probably on this forum the most keen to see some cool Polar airmasses brought over the UK.

Yes i agree felt more like a fresh feeling September day today in warwickshire, the past few days heve felt really chilly especially in that brisk wind giving a noticeable wind chill, i was out in a t shirt as i'm alright when walking fast but once you sit on a bench especially in a more rural setting it felt brrrrrrrr, wish i had long sleeved top on or a coat.

I would now give it a 5 due to this seemingly unending overcast slightly below average spell. Not sure how anybody can give this summer a 9 or a 10, i mean those kind of scores are reserved for classic summers like 1995/1976, this summer isn't anywhere as good.

Yes i agree it is very boring now, i think mid July to mid August is now the most boring time of the year not just for weather but for all other things, i find as i get older summer is becoming more boring when i was at school i really looked forward to it but that was mainly for the 6 weeks holiday where i went on day trips to seasides and adventure/wildlife parks/theme parks and out exploring different places with friends now most kids just want to doss around in their back garden and outside on the street making loads of noise not going anywhere or doing anything. You can't beat the cosyness of those darker evenings i agree, i find autumn, winter and spring the most exciting seasons for weather and all other things.

Outside of the south/east its been slightly below average too in the rest of england and wales in the last week or so, southwest england below, midlands below, northern england below, its been poor almost everywhere except as usual the southeast, a different climate down there to the rest of us. Been poor in northern ireland and scotland too.

Yes but by this time of year the 548 dam line has retreated well north, the airmass though cool compared to what we could be having this time of year is still mild, check out dewpoint charts, to me these kind of mildish airmasses from the northwest always bring a high risk of grey overcast muck, thats why summer is my least favourite season now at least in spring PM airmasses are dominant just to our north and west and you get lovely clear crisp air and strong sunshine.

Hi Eabie, Welcome to the forum and soon welcome to Coventry and Warwickshire I live near Coventry so think i can tell you best what the weather is like around here. It depends if you are moving to the inner city parts of Coventry ( Coventry and Birmingham were Warwickshire's only cities but are now classifed as in the West Midlands county though alot of local people still think Coventry as in Warwickshire) or moving to one of the many lovely villages near Coventry. Summers are comfortable in mid/north Warwickshire, temps very rarely above 28C, most likely 18C to 25C with nights down to 11C to 15C on most mid summer nights in built up areas but head out to rural areas of warwickshire and it gets surprisingly cool at night especially in low lying areas. Winters aren't as cold as continental climates with SW'lys being the prevalent wind direction though the last two winters were cold for warwickshire standards with an unusual amount of night frosts(below 0C), temps very rarely dip below -7C in built areas of warwickshire but again head out to low lying rural areas and its much colder, fog is common in valley areas outside of summer when its usually misty instead. Summers are mild, springs are cool/fresh with polal maritime airmasses prevalent, autumns rather mild though by November it get can cold and winters fairly cool(warwickshires inland position as far away from the sea as possible in england and very long mid winter nights helps alot) is my summary of what you should expect over here, don't expect anything that extreme as thunderstorms are becoming rare in our region, most likely is the occasional heavy burst of rain and grey overcast days even in the height of summer which is mid July to mid August in the midlands.

Yes it has been very dull this July in the west midlands, today is another grey overcast day, its all these warm humid TM airmasses from the southwest that is the problem bringing lots of cloud cover thats why i prefer PM airmasses as they bring lovely clear blue skies and a lovely crispness to the weather and still a strong sun so perfect but by July i'm afraid PM airmasses are in very short supply as it they have retreated to the far north atlantic, from mid August these airmasses start to move south so hopefully we'll be able to pull in some then. Temps currently quite abit below average in alot of parts. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=07&TT=26&TIME=1230&TYP=temperatur&KEY=MID&TIME=1280145069

Yes this mornings model guidance is supporting this view. Yes i would say summer is slowly ebbing away now, no sign of any 30C+ and this August could be one of a very select few since the early 90's not to record 30C+ anywhere in the UK, heat very rarely has the same intensity by the end of August onwards. 30C+ in September has only been recorded 3 times in the UK since 1973 and only in the SE, i can't remember the last time 30C was reached in the midlands late August onwards so time is running out fast now.

Yes plenty of butterflies here too, seen loads since May while walking in the countryside, loads of moths too at night. I love butterflies but hate moths

Please give your ratings out of 10 for the summer so far at your location only not nationally, i'll give it 6/10 so far in my location of mid warwickshire.

For towns ground frosts are ages away, airmass too mild and cloudy for any in the next week or so, always a risk of ground frost though in my local valley which really is like a different world to urban areas being much colder at night when its still and clear as cool air sinks to the bottom of the valley.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.png - Looks near average to me, only day i see above average is monday but restricted to southeast britain, i see alot of cloud round and temps around 24C in the midlands so only a few degrees above here.

I use to think July was never autumn but since mid week it has proved me wrong with temps of only 15C on one day even lower elsewhere and near gale force winds, September is a transitional month just like March is so can all kinds of weather types are possible apart from true cold in September or true heat in March.

Likewise i'd like to see a true straight southerly from north africa which gradually weakens after 2 to 3 days which we havent seen in ages, previous ones were moderated too much from the southwest and with no proper thundery breakdown, actually here none at all, i would also like a hot southeasterly which brings 15C+ hPa air to the UK so more places outside the southeast can enjoy temps into the early 30's C.

Some very unfair criticism of GFS on TWO, for the north/east midlands and parts of northern england the temps only reached 13C to 15C and in central/west midlands only reached 16C very briefly before going down, GFS had the cold temps for central parts of the UK not for the extreme south/southeast which reached around average, how anybody can expect GFS to accurately forecast every single place in the UK 100% days before is beyond me, it did very well today and picked up the cold temps in quite a large area days in advance, i would like to see people forecast temperatures for the whole of the UK correctly days in advance and see how correct they are.

GFS wasn't that far off afterall(alot of people dismissing it on saturday in model chat i remember) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=07&TT=12&TIME=1600&TYP=temperatursyn&KEY=MID&TIME=1278954960 Highs of just 14C/15C in the midlands today, that is cold for mid July the average max is around 22C.