William of Walworth

'Owed' is not meteorological, never claimed it was!! I agree a nice cold winter would be great too ... Some (not just me!) are suggesting in the Model Output thread that a return to warmth and maybe even predominantly High Pressure, might be on the cards for later this month ... last week of May perhaps.

Trying to cheer up with your positive June and July talk Stephen, but as for those words 'few weeks' in the first para ... whatever happened to the very recent talk on the other thread of the downturn this weekend being a shortlived blip? Prospects seem all over the place ... I suppose after last year's excuse for a summer, some of us want to have our cake and eat it this time, maybe we feel that we're owed** predominantly nice and warm conditions this summer. **Not a meteorological concept!

Blimey!!! I hope to heaven that you are what you meteorologists call 'an outlier'!! Jack is already dissenting .. is this doomy and gloomy scenario from Chris supported by others??

Cheers for that John. Very helpful to a semi-knowledgeable and not very technically clued up type like myself. I would have PMed, but I was also looking for a more general discussion too ... Not looking great for the Bank Holiday weekend then -- you seem to be suggesting that the Atlantic will reassert itself pretty strongly for a while around BH weekend time ... But I also discern in your post a remaining hope that there'll be a recovery after that, very late May/early June perhaps ... . as people keep saying, things can chop and change. I (selfishly!) wish that the position of the High to our North was a bit different, so that Atlantic lows coming in from the West could be diverted more to the North .... sorry Northerners!

Been struggling with john holmes' excellent LRF thread, which leaves me unclear on the exact timescales/dates he's talking about, and with the currently very technical Model Output thread. Can someone put a simple summary here -- likely trends for next week, Banl Holiday weekend, the end of May, and as far into June as people feel half way confident about? I'm getting the sense of a fair bit more good weather than bad but I'm rather hoping for Tne Eye In The Sky's somewhat contrary prediction (in Model Output) of an unsettled/rainy period from tomorrow right into June to be further contradicted if possible! Most of the others seem to be gently questioning that.

Thanks for those responses folks, Jack especially. A dryer June more important to me a than a hot one, though both would be nice ...

Is it Ok to mention the Weather on line late spring/early summer forecast here? Don't know how much credibility people here set by that site. Don't know how they devise their predicitons either. They're pessimistic for part of late May and for part of early to mid June. Correct or not correct? You decide.

How about late June? I'm sure some rain will come, but exactly when? is the issue .....

JACKONE's new Glastonbury forecast (last weekend of June -- see separate thread) is at this stage indicating positivity for that period .... obviously one's forecast can go down as well as up, but festivalgoers and non festivalgoers alike may be cautiously pleased that last year's washout June just might be avoided this time. OK prospects can change but! :lol:

Yes, May 2006 wasn't too bad, and June was even better that year.

I know the BBC 4 week forecast is not thought much of round these parts, and quite rightly not. On today's update they're suggesting predominantly unsettled/showery weather well into May. How reliable is this as an outline guide, will they end up with eg on their faces or do people here think their edicts are broadly right? I know it's a bit of a 'too early to say scenario' so far, and that changes can come about quite quickly ... Me I'm wanting a nice END of May, mainly. As a buildup to scorching weather... later B) Cheers.

Yes I remember that one ... in Somerset! :o I know, I'm wishing for plenty of nice weather in July and August too ... Hot weather : bring it on. 27C or 28C daytime maxes would be ideal for me .... That was Saturday June 2nd wasn't it? The Sunday was pretty pleasant as well. Weather didn't return to anything even approaching nice after that until early August ....

You know the score Mr B! B) Some of us in the festival community even those less interested in the weather than me, are DESPARATE for a predominantly sunny/warm summer this time, after 2007's debacle ... And if this summer's has to be indifferent to rubbish generally, let's at least have a heatwave the last 2 weeks of June to compensate! Living up to your name .... I'm with you, even if long hot spells mean variety lovers get bored, after last year we need them!

Is that just a hunch or are you basing it on anything? I'll happily go with the first half of your prediction though :lol: Spare the sensitivities of us Glastonburygoers PLEASE!!! Thankfully, the complete oppositeness of your prediction from Gavin's tells me that you're both speculating .... Oh for heavens sake!!!!! <kills self> :lol:

I'd dispute that. Chances of a long hot summer (or at least a summer with much more sunshine and warm spells, featuring regularly) are surely stronger than the chances of a snow dominated winter ....

Dreadful Easter all round on that chart, for most of Europe** not just the UK ... **Southern Spain included, even :lol: Still, I'll trade a rubbish Easter, even a rubbish March and April all round, for a nice spell of settled summer warmth ... May to September say ... :lol:

That scenario looks colder than usual for almost everywhere in Western Europe, not just the UK. Can some kind expert tell me what might be expected for Southern Spain (Malaga/Granada/Orgiva) from such a setup or similar?? Currently 22C and wall to wall sunshine in Malaga at the moment. We will be arriving there next Thursday and heading for Granada and district for Easter .. Maybe about to miss London's only snow of the 'winter'?

Maybe so, but 'scorching' is stretching it! Pleasant and spring like, more like. Let's save the 'scorching' to June, July, August ... please!

I think I love you ... I like cold winters but they get rarer and rarer, snow in South London worth talking about is rarer than hens teeth .... whenever we do get significantly cold, it seems to stay dry. I have every hope of a FAR better summer in 2008 than 2007 though. With none of that perfect April nonsense (as last year) that 'used up our quota' before we really needed it

My network is reporting that the Glade Festival (a 3 day dance/electro-music event, starting today) near Thatcham, Berkshire, near Newbury, was within a very short straw of being called off this morning. The gates were closed and arriving ticketholders turned away for a while. One stage closed, other event tents very very soggy by all accounts. Thatcham station was closed, part of the M4 near that area closed. Talk of 45 mm of rain in a morning down there, which might not be a total exaggeration! But they held off on a major decision, and things are drying out down there slightly, now, with the sun out. Looks like it won't be cancelled altogether now, but Newbury Races were, and I bet other outdoor events in Central Southern England must have been too. How many of those wet July/wet August combos were preceded by a wetter than average June though?

IGNORE St Swithins Day folk myths. Surprised to see them being repeated here! Stupid woman was retailing populist nonsense ... she's supposed to be a weather forecaster, not a childrens story teller. We will NOT get 40 days and 40 nights of rain after Sunday (15th July) and even if we did it would be entirely a coincidence ... Mind you that is GM TV, so I suppose I should expect no better,

And even if that does happen it'll be a one or two day wonder swiftly broken down by torrential storms, is my guess .... Stable 25C for a lengthier period would be preferable. Any chance of this in August folks?

I'm a heatlover, but I don't need 30C. 27C will do me fine ... :lol: Starting 21st July please, or 26th .... right through August would be nice ...

Not THIS July!!!

You think we'll hit 30C at any time in July? I don't see it ... I'm in London, where you tend to get the hottest temperatures, and we've very very rarely seen 25C or 26C this year, let alone anything higher, with none in sight for the foreseeable either. Conspicuous lack of confidence round these forums for August as well ... If someone can offer me any chance at all of predominantly warm (OK, not 30C!!) and drier and sunnier weather between 25th July and 25th August, at least in the South, I'd be delighted, but the few people daring to venture any long term predictions are being considerably more pessimistic. Seems like wall to wall crap weather (with the minor and temporary exception of this weekend in the South) as far as the eye can predict.