William of Walworth

Latest update (1 pm Weds) to the verbal version of the UKMO's modelling I've bolded the less pessimistic bits just to cheer myself up a tad, but UKMO don't seem to want to see any Continental High having much if any influence next week .....

I sort of agree with you. Well not necessarily about the 'grim few weeks' bit as I think some of the potential developments that GP posted about could end up at least ameliorating the worst for many, especially further South. I mean later on, into the start of August. But yes any Continental High that might come in next week does have 'shortlived' written on it doesn't it. At risk of retrogressing after a frustratingly short time perhaps. Predominantly dry across most of the South today though! Surely we aren't superstitious folklorists here .... <clings to rationalism> I agree about the AH preference ... But the devil surely lies in the developing detail next week and we'll have to look for later runs on that -- altogether possible with relatively minor positioning changes to end up with a sort of half way house? in which HP continues to influence parts of the South and East for a bit longer, and the returning Jet sends its badness predominantly Northwards. I wish I knew enough about how models might develop to be able to assess the likelihood or not of that though -- not all that likely perhaps. <prays for HP, if it has to be shortlived, to be delayed nearer to next weekend!>

A very few green shoots of possible recovery there (albeit temporary?) for next week -- in some places/in some models anyway. Very much a 'maybe' though. <prays and tries to be patient -- I'm literally longing for later next week not to be unsettled and rain dominated in the South > ETA : And thanks to Eugene (!), weather09 and anvilhead for those comments and links -- do they contradict NSSC's general comments at all or would any slight warmup be just a temporary respite from a continuing Jet dominated pattern? Hard to call isn't it .... Longer term (into August?) I want to feel encouraged by GP's detailed post from last night, and chion's comments. But far from confident enough yet ....

I'm a bit of a links avoider probably because I lack confidence about which ones are most relevant or illuminating at the right moment. But I do look at the links other posters and sites provide and I tend to look for posts by experienced forecasters/model and data watchers such as those you and GP and other knowledgeable regulars offer. Trying to learn anyway. Oh I don't dispute Thursday night and Friday are looking awful, not at all! My point was a tad different ... <_< I'm relieved that that dreadful modelling is for this weekend not for next weekend, but then that's MY selfish perspective. Stubborn hope and optimism requires me to cross my fingers that the upcoming washout will pass and won't last for ever or even for very long (necessarily).

Thanks for that. I reckon a washout for many places this weekend is surely on the cards by now, and interesting though that undoubtedly is, I just wish after the weekend/later that the Jet would retreat Northwards even if only a modest distance. We're probably well overdue a return to some 'uninteresting' blue skies for a while!

I take your points generally weather09, and my apologies if I gave the impression the other day that I thought you were writing off the month or even the summer. I think that one of your main points is right that you cannot be certain beyond a week (or an even shorter time if the models are really confusing) That being so, my post above was I suppose as much a cry of frustration at the current models themselves as well as at one poster's (surely!) excessively pessimistic interpretation of the current output. There remains very limited possibilities of much of a turnaround next week but we can't completely write off a modest/gentle improvement for later next week for some places -- not yet anyway. And beyond next week is still anyone's guess. I might be singing a gloomier tune around this coming Saturday/Sunday for next week, but time will tell. I still cling to limited hope for now.

We're already getting some chunky and heavy showers, with only short gaps, here in SW Wales (Swansea). Relatively chilly too for July, apart from a vaguely warmish feel in this morning's very shortlived sunshine. The downhill trend looks likely to spread further East and South on Thursday (especially) and Friday it seems. So far the SE seems to have escaped the worst though admittedly .... I long for this (and no more, and it can be confined to Southern counties if necessary) for later next week, but I have severe doubts right now/so far that such a quick change can be possible I hate the Jet Stream. Screwer up of far too many summers, and my expectations aren't even that high or unrealistic. All I'd like is just a return to modest pleasantness and some more sun (we've been short o it in Wales of late although other parts further East have done better). And only limited/intermittant showers, rather than a heatwave which would be a bonus but not at all obligatory for me.

It's a good job amateurs like me look at everybody's posts and not just yours Eugene. Models are far from great atm as no-one would dispute, but you seem ever concerned to put the worst spin possible and based on the worst possible outcome. Please try to be a bit more objective and to accept that it's in no way certain that the short term doom and gloom will persist unchanged beyond the short term. Or why not accept that the worst possible outcome from current model output (including a range of possibilities) won't invariably or necessarily be the one that comes about longer term. That style of interpretation just reads provocatively I'm afraid. Thanks.

Bit in bold : this seems to be an outlier of an opinion alza? I know you posted it last night, but I'm not seeing much if any confirmation of that suggestion of more HP influence next week in other peoples' posts in this thread, nor in what (limited!) amount I can read from the models myself ..... Beyond a very short timescale right now, and some people are saying to predict beyond even T96+ is foolish at the moment, I'm really struggling -- and more than usual. As I posted yesterday I have a big vested interest as I really want to see at least modest improvements across the South later next week, Thursday 23rd onwards. (Any sign of a developing N/S divide, or (far) NW/most of the S and E divide, would selfishly suit me very well). 'Improvements' as in no more than 'mainly drier, and just in Southern counties' -- I certainly don't expect any kind of heatwave that soon. Is everyone struggling to predict that far out though, or should we assume another fairly unsettled, average temperatured, very showery week throughout in all places?

I always read GP's points with close attention. and I even understand parts of them, and try to learn from the rest .... If GP and John are suggesting an improvement in late July, even on currently fairly tentative signals, then those tempted to write off the rest of the summer should take note I think. Mixed, with room for 'up' periods (warmer, with more settled spells) as well as 'down' periods (Jet dominated) would be a safer default prediction surely. So far any real general improvement not all that likely before (just?) too late in July for my personal wishes though

In what Wiltshire schools did they teach that Cardiff is in England?

I agree with this, sadly, and after catching up with everything posted on this thread since last Thursday (and also John's latest lrf update from the 10th), I'm pretty glum. This coming weekend in particular risks being very wet in places Friday and Saturday as matters now stand. Maybe a washout .... We have a rare stay-at-home weekend coming up here in SW Wales, so I can take an LP dominated wet set up on the chin this time. I haven't altogether written off next week completely though. With almost no current evidence at all to support me yet, I have (hopecasting-based!) thoughts that we might see an improvement in the South for the following weekend, specifically the period Thursday 23rd-Sunday 26th, even if 'improvement' only amounts to 'somewhat drier'. WOMAD (Malmesbury, Wilts) will be our second biggest festival of the summer over those dates, we all know prayer has no influence over what will happen but I'm praying for even a slight shift northwards of the Jet, that now dominant thing much hated by summer lovers/festival goers/all outdoor activity types such as I. There was no washout or mudbath at Glastonbury end of June (24th-28th), and that was narrowly avoided too in the SW, just ahead of the real heatwave the following week. Not quite late enough yet to hope for avoiding a Wiltshire washout the last full weekend of July also, little chance of it being so warm as late June was though. But if the charts/models are still stubbornly sticking to more of the Jet dominated same by say Saturday/Sunday, then even this instinctive optimist will start to lose it ...

How things change Earlier hopes of July ending with a warmer, summery, more settled spell seem to be right out of the window for the moment ....

I confess to an element of hopecasting when I agree with NSSC more than weather09 here, but I still think those posters already writing off the entire of July are being too pessimistic. The coming weekend outside of the SE looks fairly dire, I'm fearful for a LOT of rain here in Wales on Saturday/Saturday night especially. So I'm realisticly downbeat for the immediate future. But I repeat what I said yesterday as far as the last fortnight of July goes -- anything from around the 21st?? onwards has everything surely still to play for, and prospects can change very quickly ... So do I, and there's nothing yet to write it off either.

I'm not optimistic for any really summery conditions any time next week, on current signals. The SE just possibly excepted. Low pressure looking just too close to our W. Beyond next week, all still to play for though .... still altogether possible that July could go out with a nice warm or even hot spell. I'm cautiously optimistic on that.

That's a very good summary TWS, thankyou. Kind of how I'm reading things myself at the moment. My hopes of a somewhat less wet weekend (Sat and Sun) than currently progged are not very high, but at least here in Wales we should get some drier weather Thursday and Friday, not too bad for the start of the cricket -- my friends are going to Cardiff for the Test tomorow and after, and they've been anxiously asking me what to expect. Later on I'll be telling them quite a mixture over the five days! I think you're surely safe from any real heat for the moment. By the time it returns (as I sincerely continue to hope for late July!) school terms will have ended .....

Sometimes I feel quite downbeat about my understanding levels In the Netweather general forecast from 9 am today (Monday) we have this : Yet in recent posts on this thread we have almost no mention of the bolded part ...... And some of the runs I've seen show little obvious signs of it either. Help me out folks, HP coming in or not?

I'm in Swansea (must must must change my location if not my user name!!) It's barely 20C here at a guess, very grey and cloudy, some drizzle has started recently, which could easily turn into much heavier rain as the afternoon goes on. For Wales the cool down and breakdown starts early ... :ph34r:

"Incoherent and weak signals" seems exactly right .... very hard to predict how long the cool down will last. Certainly some scope for hope that more HP influenced conditions will return, moving in from the SW later on. FI for sure but certainly not a prospect to be dismissed at all, at least for the South. And as rob says, not an extremely wet looking breakdown either.

No-one would deny that there'll be a cool down next week. How long it lasts very open to question though.

Liking the signs on these latest projections that we seem likely to retain very reasonable levels of sunshine into the weekend, and 21C will feel pretty warm in strong sun. Weekend showers most likely to be hit and miss rather than certainties, even in the West -- we'll be in North Devon for a small post Glastonbury restful party (open air) from Friday to Sunday, and we'd happily settle for the odd shower so long as the sun comes out plenty too. Not too bad at all on latest output -- as 'breakdowns' to a very warm spell go, this one seems likely to be fairly benign for many. Nice one if that verifies, that would be consistent with GP's recent predictions for later July too. The PIT's mention above of 'FI land shows the atlantic in control just outside the reliable time frame' may (hopefully!) prove shortlived.

Humidwave for sure, especially last night, as well as being a verywarmwave, but with much more sunshine here in South Wales than yesterday, I'm enjoying today a lot more than yesterday :lol: Outside, about 24C or 25C at a guess. Pleasant sea breeze too.

Mostly cloudy and humid here in Swansea, not much of the sunshine which I believe is bathing London and much of the South and SE. But still very warm here, at a guess I'd say 26C this afternoon. In the Model Output Discussion thread they're right now chatting about the possibility of a thundery and dramatic breakdown by the end of the week, then a significant cooldown. I don't have a problem with cooler temps, and temps around 20C - 21C still seem very achievable even on Saturday and Sunday, but most of us sunshine, summer and warmth/heat lovers would want us to be spared a wet weekend. Showers at most hopefully, and not too much in the way of solid cloud cover either! We will be in North East Devon (Exmoor) on Friday and Saturday, and I'm banking on any lower pressure heading further North.

Spot on Sunny, I too think GFS is being overly pessimistic on temps for next week, this has frequently been the case in summer. I'm sticking by my call of 27C for mid next week, very possibly in my festival hotspot in mid Somerset!

That figure was my guess in today's Model Output Discussion (not that I claimed Somerset/Glastonbury would be the hottest place, but I said 27C was my guess .... ) But if this figure is right I'm happy ..... B)