William of Walworth

Cheers for that, and apologies -- just that you used the word 'warmist' and that led me down the wrong path. That word tends to ring alarm bells for me, let's just say. On post 3, page 1 yesterday though, I broke my own rule which I made to myself on first joining NW -- that I should never join in any discussions on AGW or climate change. Mostly because of the (political) strength of my opposition to denialists. Of whom there are one or two on here. My extreme dislike of that school of thought won't help calmness in such discussions! I will put back my lid on that subject from now on ... <buttons it> I'm predicting a good summer next year, 2010, but on pure guesswork and hopecasting really, and also on the basis of 'reasonable likelihood' after 3 poor ones. Certainly not expecting an extreme record breaking summer in 2010 though. So I tend to concur with anti-Mild here.

Thank you Bottesford, I've been puzzled by that glitch for ages ....

Yes, EiiD it is for us this weekend. I'm really hoping that GFS is overdoing the Westward movement of that rain in its latest output, Dorset for now risks being just on the cusp between dry and wet weather .... But MetO's latest updates indicate a predominantly drier picture for Cent South and SW England this weekend and beyond, so we can but hope these wetter trends shown on some models reverse themselves ......... As ever, I will continue to be unsure until right near the time ...

'Warmist'? Do I spot Christopher Booker style denialist language here? The man's an arrant crackpot whose malign influence discredits an awful lot of what the Daily Telegraph has to say about climate change.

The way one or two have posted (not you) the propects for August are akin to the July we've just had, ie scarcely any pleasant weather at all. It's that kind of over pessimistic writing off that I'm mainly disputing., I'd kill for a pleasantly warm spell, sunny and 22C-ish, right now ....

Kind of disagreeing ... I think we have every chance of a pleasantly warm spell well before the month is out, I don't predict any true heatwave, but as for a spell where sunshine and early-20s temps are more prominent, I think we have every good chance and I think John's LRF supports that possibility, albeit as I said before, mainly for the South -- I appreciate you probably have fewer grounds for optimism in Derby though.

1989 was definitely a scorcher for most, one of the ones most dominated by sunniness and warmth (long spells of that, too) that I can remember.

Notably less wet than July is my prediction. I think tinybill's thread title is somewhat influenced by his unrelenting pessimism. No offence but that's how I read his posts in Model Output Discussion ...

For those tempted to assume that the rest of August is going to be rubbish, I'd suggest looking at some of the details of John's latest LRF from yesterday, he's correctly being cautious and not promising unbrokenly gorgeous weather by any means, but for later in the month there seem definite signals of marked improvements particularly for the South. Key word is 'if' there Gavin .... This is about as 'reliable' a suggestion as mine is : that after 3 underpar summers in a row, we will be well overdue a much better and more HP dominated one in 2010, and that we have every good chance of this. Even the most skilled of meterologists is hard pushed to predict accurately for the next four weeks, let alone 12 months. To be honest I'm pretty impatient with those hinting that because 2007-2009 have been less than inspiring, that must mean that Jet dominated Atanticism is set to be the contiuing watchword for future summers. NOTHING is set in stone. I'd lay my odds for 2010 more resembling 2003 and 2006 than 2008 and 2009, to be round about 50/50 and there's nothing any of you can say now to contradict that guess!

I agree with these remarks. I get a bit impatient with the frequent finger wagging here along the lines that we shouldn't be 'expecting' wall to wall sunshine constantly, and that we were spoilt by a few recent better than average summers eg 2003 and 2006, and that what we're getting now is more to be expected. Well the July just gone has for many regions particularly in the West, been far worse (definitely much wetter anyway) than normal/average. I'm with what rob was saying too, mixed weather is fine, the odd two day spell of warm sunshine separated by showers and rain would be OK, but throughout July any hope of getting more than one dry day at a time has geenrally been folornm, at least here in Wales. Thats not normal. I haven't looked at John's latest LRF yet, but generally I want to disagree with those writing off August as a rain dominated certainty. It's still too early to say IMO, and changes can happen relatively quickly. I incline towards the view that while a Jet dominated pattern can yes be hard to shift, it's not sensible to assume it will continue unchanged indefinitely.

Not been here since Friday, and I don't really remain much more the wiser than I was on Friday about what later this week will be like in the detail, apart from being somewhat warmer. All I can do is pray that the heavy rain threatened in the South East for later this week remains confined to the SE and far E. From latest runs, and from the links Paul B and Snowyowl posted, my guess is that Dorset (where I'll be 7-9) will still escape the worst and may even enjoy some reasonably pleasant weather including sunshine for the w/e. No heatwave though for the weekend as once seemed promised. MetO's updates today supports this cautious optimism for the SW.... GFS less dry though.

Hints of at least a shortlived warmup for the weekend in the South, and for a short time afterwards, in some of the models now though. No one wants to talk about pattern change but the Met Office, admittedly contradicting other models for now, has just started to hint at it.

Is that VERY wet in Wilts? We want it to dry up in/around Malmesbury (WOMAD) for the weekend ..... Here in Swansea, the fairly heavy rain we had for several hours earlier today has stopped completely , and the sun has came out since around 4 pm, with a nice warm feel albeit with a stiff breeze from a SSWish direction ....

I wonder how their data ties in with the very technical data Glacier Point (especially) and chion have been including in their regular posts on the Model Output thead. GP has been sticking to his guns until recently in suggesting a good chance of warmer conditions for early August when almost all other shorter term projections were casting doubt on that.

I'll bet you a pint of your choice that the majority of the UK -- say most parts South of the far North of England at least -- will be strongly affected for several days by High Pressure, either Continetal or Azores, well before August is out. And in a warm** and largely settled and sunny fashion for most too. **22C and over. Remember that Glacier Point, at least when he last posted anyway, posted technical stuff quite supportive of this scenario for later .... Good luck!!! As you know I very much want a pleasant weekend 24-26 July as well, in my case in Wiltshire ... Methinks realisticly that you'll do better towards the end of that week than right at the beginning though.

You can scarcely imagine how extremely frustrating and annoying that will be, for those of us praying for a non-washout weekend over the 24th, 25th and 26th! Still, IMO there still remain faint (admittedly fainter than before) grounds for some hope that conditions in the South will become slightly more benign -- no more than slightly -- in time for next weekend.

I hear you! I'm very much opposed to people writing off any chance of any summery weather for weeks and months based on (admittedly) very negative model output at the present time. Over on Model Output Discussion, a caution has been issued about viewing what happens beyond T96+ or T150+ as set in stone. This is right now about my only concrete grounds for (some, limited) hope that next weekend won't be a chilly, windy washout in the South, but if I saw Jet domination as unbreakable for ever I'd be seriously losing it just now. So more openminded, less categorically pessimistic contributions like yours are something to cling to. In near-desperation right now admittedly ...

Just about the only scope I have just now for not feeling near suicidal about the prospects for late next week and weekend, are the above three posts ...... I'm stubbornly going to ignore all the other contributions for the moment, for my own sanity ..... no offence to the pessimists/realists (delete as appropriate!) but I'm sure you can understand ....

Bit of an absence of diversity from overcast and wet and chilly and windy right now mind Mr Anyweather .... I'll do a deal with ya -- sunny and dry and blue skies, but no more than 21C? So did I!! Might stay in a bit more tomorrow mind!!

We should be somewhat cautious about writing off the whole of the coming week for the whole of the UK I think. Ensembles at least are not completely devoid of some chance of a modest improvement later on -- maybe further South, who can be sure? I find ensembles hard because I never know which suggestions are outliers and which seem more reliable. But still, I'd welcome some input on them from more experienced posters here. And as far as actual synoptic charts go, are the links that Snowyowl posted earlier -- showing rising presure for some regions by next Saturday -- completely to be discarded, are they out of date now? Thanks for any help folks .....

Thanks for that, I should check the ensembles more regularly .....we have to wait and see what transpires, but that looks quite a sharp upward pressure trend after the 24th ... for a short while at least. And those are for Derbyshire too ... what do you think mushy?

My sympathies for the heat-averse are very very limited right now!! If we get more than one or two days next week with temps above 20C I'll count us as lucky, given latest model output. I'm not even especially bothered about 25C plus heat, just as well as we seem unlikely to see any again before August, but what's driving me nuts right now is the shortage of sunshine, I'll take a dry sunny blue sky day at 19C or 20C over a thundery humid rainy day at 23C any time. Yesterday was our best day here in SW Wales (Swansea), it actually didn't rain! but far more cloud than sun around all the same. And that was the BEST day this week, otherwise since Sunday it's been nearly wall to wall cloud when there wasn't actually rain as well, with rare shortlived exceptions. And more rainy awfulness later today and tomorrow. This is July!!! What I hate about this current Jet dominated pattern is the unrelentingness of it in the current models and forecasts, the feeling that we're doomed to be locked into Atlantic driven chilliness, wetness and windiness for at least a week, maybe more, with LP after LP sweeping in from the Atlantic with almost no respite .... We're off to WOMAD near Malmesbury in Wiltshire next Thursday (23rd, up to Sunday 26th) and for now I see little or no scope for hope that we'll be spared plenty of rain and sub-20C temps and windy conditions for the whole festival ...... only faint hopes attached to outside possibilities of weather systems tracking further north by next weekend can help us ... Us festival goers are among those most weather affected of any outdoor activity lovers ..... we were spared a mudbath at Glastonbury this year and last (quite close escapes in both cases too!) but we're on a real knife-edge right now over whether or not we'll be spared the sort of Wiltshire washout that we got in late July 2007 ... this is our second biggest festival, between 25 and 30,000 .... It's thoroughly depressing. Speculation by one or two in the model output thread of the current Jet-streamed pattern lasting for weeks isn't helping either .... ETA for slight relief of the gloom ... Snowyowl has just posted these for Sat 25th in the Model Output thread though, I hadn't previously seen them -- I suppose they provide straws of FI hope for those further South ... <prays!!> Although the Met Office flatly refuses to see any of it yet for that time ....

Must say it feels strange to be in West Wales yet looking likely to be spared the very heaviest of the upcoming rainfall -- so often Wales and the West bear the brunt from intense Atlantic driven LP systems. I hope the NE and other most-at-risk zones are spared extreme floods anyway. Nice FI candy there .... we can but dream that charts like that verify on the 25th or even before .....

Thanks for this GP. Your post provides about the only half-hopeful hints for the longer term (half-hopeful for Jet/Atlantic dislikers and summer preferrers anyway!) out of anyone's contributions since last night. Agreeing with other contributors as well though because I'm a realist -- almost all the short/medium term modelling offer little or no joy except for ducks for now ... Indeed, my heat hopes have been comprehensively pushed back to August or at best to very very late July for now. My new mental conditioning today is telling me to expect the worst for all of next week right into next weekend, most of the models showing the reload of LP next week that NSSC and others have been seeing, don't allow anything else but pessimism really. Then, if we are spared the worst in the South after all coming up to next weekend, it will feel like a lucky escape .... Still too soon to say for sure mind. Another rare straw to grasp for. Very much in the 'maybe' category though.

I like Euro-highs too ... when their influence lasts longer than a couple of days at the beginning of a week Still knife edge city then for whether there can be any remaining hope of the weather improving again -- for the South is all I ask! --in time for next weekend. I'm running out of optimism right now ....