lorenzo
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Posts posted by lorenzo
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Windy this morning and the compact ice is beginning to slowly ebb away, green things are visible.
A digger has cleared our street and now a couple of massive piles of snow are evident, brown and white - unsightly.
ECM and GFS both keen on our Scandi high extending its icy grasp westwards on Wednesday night into Thursday as yet another atlantic low is barrelled north towards iceland.
Looking 50:50 as to whether the upper temps will be cold enough on the east coast to bring snow, need to wait for another 2 days of models to pin this down I reckon.
Keep an eye on Greenland some interesting action on the charts up there... These lows firing north really do have a knock on effect on the cold pool way up north and smash it in all directions, whether this is to the SW or SE looks to determine our weather for the end of Jan into February. This ECM chart shows exactly that and a fragmented cold pool...
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Am a novice here so be kind.
Looking at the Atlantic charging itself up with low after low over the next 7 days, the point that interests me is +132 on GFS.
The Jetstream is really kicking in and barrelling any cold over Iceland and East Greenland back to source, no sign of any blocking there.
However it appears this is in turn fuelling the Scandi High and at that timescale on GFS pushes the high west towards our east coast - an avenue for cold to return 20/01 18:00.
In particular am wondering about the duel lows shown at this point on the chart. What chances are there of these merging and throwing the models again into chaos? Would this in effect burn the atlantic out and allow Greenland to re strengthen?
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Good news that this thread will remain open in some guise..
The model output discussion thread is good for learning on and seeing some great analysis - however it is not without fault.
Some of the posters on there are flippant to the point of arrogance, and whilst as a whole this forum is probably the most well mannered I have come across ever, it is a shame that there is not a little more patience shown should someone newer post something.
Next Thursday looks like being the soonest the cold really threatens to kick in again according to ECM. GFS continues to prog the mild atlantic as its favoured outcome.
Both still way out in FI though. From what I can gather much to do with what the Polar Vortex does and whether it shifts, and where it shifts too - this will determine what drives the pools of cold air.
Here's to a snowy return from the 24th onwards.
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I understand the need for Net Weather to shut down regional threads probably crippling on server space and cost.
However, they should provide an alternative. Rathern than 9(or whatever) separate ones have ' The Northern Winter' and 'The Southern Winter'.
2 threads country halved - somewhere.
Either that or someonce just create a new thread as I guess lots of other regions will try to do anyway.
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All our chums on the model thread are having babies over the latest ECM run. Sounds like there is an ice age on its way
Yes - and its way out in the future too that their getting excited about.. This atlantic low surely has to play out its battle with the Scandi High before any blocking establishes.
I think this is a 'mild snap' in what is a longer term cold snap, of course it's going to get cold again - it's only 10th January.
It's brass monkeys up here for a while yet.
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Heavy snow here now, the charts are just all over the place just now.
That beast of a low in the south west progged to clash into the scandi high... wow..
Upper temps dropping and re-loading, neither ECM or GFS can decide on the impact or track of the low.
Definitely keep an eye on the stratospheric thread for the tropical wave impact on the polar region in T+10.
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Some fine snow / drizzle here just now, last night and overnight a couple of cms of snow made everything all postcard again.
Not been paying attention the last 2 days as our card decided to pack in !! Great timing
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That low is intriguing viewing - its outer edge creating flurries on SE Coast now from Hull - Norwich.
It's steadliy building dragging in cloud from the southwest, also more from the west coast of Norway is hurtling south.
Behind it to the SouthEast is another band being pulled North currently over Benelux.
Keep growing...
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Thanks CMD ! Thats what looking at too many open windows of info does to you after 12 hours at work.. Brain Fade
or Freeze would be more appropriate..Will the sea stall it and allow the low to drag in more energy from the south increasing its outer signature - or will it continue west and slam into the NE England..
Already PPN dropping on the rain radar from the Northerly...
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That Denmark one is moving west at a decent pace and growing !
Reason for Edit :
Brain too cold to get directions right. Muddling up clouds moving west with the easterly creating the action ! -
ECM projecting a full on easterly by Saturday and upper 850 temps holding in the -10 range.
Something interesting on the satellite just east of Iceland just now that knows it wants to be a Polar Low...
Edit : Not awake
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HeyJoeShmoe, just wondering what u mean by mild outlier.... still bit new to many of the charts, not sure if im looking at the same ones.
Here you go Craig hope this helps, Joe can answer better than I but here's what i found..
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/25663-guide-to-ensembles/
To check your own area go here http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=
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Looking at GFS the current source of frustration deteriorates into a North Sea Low off Shetland by Thursday morning.
Let's hope it delivers
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That perfect corridor of NE on the satellite is spoiling our fun..
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Can't tell you what is happening in Livingston just now - stuck at work!
However looking forward to another snowy drive along our famous Motorway later.
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Morning all, a very light fine covering of snow overnight here in West Lothian.. Looking at GFS today looks like mid-day onwards are our best bet for the east coast.
Looks more easterly than northerly today !
Temps here back to very cold this morning after feeling marginally milder yesterday.
Spent last night reading the Net Weather winter forecast as forum was down, some amazing stuff in there regarding the interconnected global weather systems.
Can't believe how south the Jetstream is at present - rattling over North Africa !
Also take a look at China - biggest snow in 60 years - anyone got any thoughts on that?
Ensembles here move from the outlier position back to steady -5 on the mean until 21/01 - the cold keeps on coming... will it stay until Feb...
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The benbecula one is genuinely regarded as the most accurate of the stations up here.. m 8
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If you're out all day you've got some reading to do eh !
The models thread kicked off again, you think folk would be happy the 850 temps we have had for the last age had finally reached them.
The fax charts are crazy at the moment, much to do with me deciphering them - so much going on - especially the GH changing every 12 hours.
It just refuses to die and continues to block in style it seems like it is continually re-loading itself ?! Its amazing looking at those lows in the atlantic just knocking at the door..
Thanks to Snooz for reply earlier on ensembles.
Some interesting action on satellite just now too..
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Fax chart shows the cold front well clear of Scotland by midnight tomorrow:
Edit:
L.S. Just read your post above, do I sense some snow hogging developing?? I felt the same when I was out today for a walk, and couldn't help but think that a further 3 inches of snow would be just about nice. Just to cover the trees and bushes again...
Let's hope it slows up, and looking on the upside whats that behind the front...
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Looking at the temperatures for the next week or so I found this and if someone can help explaining would be appreciated, Jan 11th is confusing.
Huge difference between the operational and mean temperatures.
Still - below freezing until a week on Tuesday !
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Looks like Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire is getting a good hit with snow this morning and showers extending down the east coast to Dundee.
Plenty of activity still out there, I guess any kind of precipitation coming across North sea into that cold air has potential to deliver snow.
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Plenty of icicles about today too - hope folk can get some good pics of them..
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Morning everyone - a crystal clear classic blue skies Winters day here.
Wonder how cold it got in the depths of the early morning?
Edinburgh Airport at -9.2 at 0900 hrs this morning... Brrrrrr...
or Freeze would be more appropriate..
Brain too cold to get directions right. Muddling up clouds moving west with the easterly creating the action !
Teleconnections
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by lorenzo
Found myself on the technical thread and was hoping someone could put these charts into rookie terms.
I understand they relate to the MJO and GWO - however after beating my head up against a brick wall and stumbling into a NOAA PSD Website - how technical ? Most of the analysis or explanation explains the impact on USA and not specifically to our neck of the hemisphere so to speak..
Fascinating to read that rising air in the tropics then impacts the polar air some 8 days later?
The reason I ask is that it would be fit some of the other jigsaw pieces into the puzzle. El Nino, La Nina, QBO, MJO, PV, NAO, AO - how many of these do we have to consider in determining what is around the corner?
Any help appreciated.