[Scotland Weather discussion]

@Quinach 100% agree on the lamps re: Lamp Post Watching. Feels like an art form has been lost or brutally amended.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Here is what 'Snog' looks like up close after drifting down to surface. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Have never seen a Parhelion here before, also ice crystals in the atmosphere - totally surreal stuff!

[Scotland Weather discussion]

1 minute ago, Frozen Britain said:

What's this Lorenzo? 

Precipitation  - Blue rain / Red Snow as viewed by the UK Model this morning out to next Monday. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Another brilliant bright freezing day. Had to laugh at the built in weather app with it's 'Partly Cloudy' suggestion.  Where??

Perfect weather for getting out for a nice walk and into some low sun.

  

Still a good few days to go before the breakdown, the EC Plume this morning on Op / Control advertising something close to a 20 degree increase by 19th December which is pretty wild.

A good model watch ahead for how this eventually breaks down and whether our own cold pool serves up snowmaggedon somewhere.. forgot to mention this great Sat Image of a PL off the Norwegian Coast.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

A nice surprise to start Saturday, and of course the good lady's first words were - well, did you expect that - you never said. 

Looks like the Firth aiding convection and giving this feature a little more punch as it rotates through. 

Lovely to see first snow of the winter for here make everything feel festive for the weekend  & the wildlife enjoyed a snowy breakfast too!

 

 

Speaking of breakfast - time to get the breakfast M'BAPpe's on - Allez les Bleu

 

 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Magic Satellite image of the flow here

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Looks like GFS has delayed the timing of the arrival of the trough from the projected time on the early morning Fax.

1200 - 1800 - 2100

The view from Arpege and NMM

Aberdeenshire the place to be clearly !

Also a -14 on there as the run rolls through - how low can it go?

[Scotland Weather discussion]

34 minutes ago, SJFCPH1 said:

Surprised this has not been deleted yet . ? ! 

Nice n cold tonight..  Raw .

Saved here from the mountains next few day's. Tonight's Euro model very interesting for next week... But WAY to early to be confident...

Enjoy the cold had a nice walk just north of Perth with white caps to the west..  FRESH .

Why would we delete this? Presume it is something military being transported under heavily armed guard which has now reached wherever it was going?

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

 

Enjoyed the Siberia Action on this run, the pacific conduit lighting up 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

LOL

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Mean may be hiding clusters which would be more wintry. Not surprised to see a high anom to our nw 

Crikey - another bookmark to add there then ! I can't keep up - bring back the days when the only morsel of detail we had was one of these !

 
 

Am kidding obvs, amazing amount of data now. The weekly post-xmas is of interest, the u progression as much as not definitive SSW is not definitive in the other direction either. No classical VI here. 

 

And, we have the MJO trend which will be subject of some amount of churn for I think at least until the next weekly run. Lots to factor in for the West Pacific on the rebound from the -EAMT, GFS and GEFS vs ECM always gives us classic model divergence and given the new GFS isn't exactly going down a tropical storm then would expect this to be exacerbated this year.

 

That's all way ahead for now. So, back to how long the cold entrenches, fax charts and polar low spotting! Enjoy the cold and hopefully some of the white stuff too if you are in the right spot.

As a PS - for those looking for the top-down signatures for SSW - check the NetWx GFS with the 1hPa addition today - could prove really helpful given other sites are off-line this season.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Incoming- that's a bone chiller.

 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

40 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

I'm expecting at best a tease of a few flakes if I stay up on Wednesday night, then a coating of frozen skitters Thursday morning. Anything more will be a pleasant surprise.

Usual winter monitoring tools assessment

 - likely frozen shut

- a possibility depending on ninja troughs in the flow

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Laughs in Scottish..

[Scotland Weather discussion]

2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Where do you find those charts? They have lots of info in one place so look very handy.

Just plundering Twitter again HC, don't think these are in public domain.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

02 December and this lot inbound, zero complaints whatsoever !

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Just for fun - picking through the EC Ensembles.. new favourite thing to do in this set up !

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Wouldn't worry too much about the MJO...

[Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

anyone know where I can see 1hpa gfs out to day 16 (from previous few runs - climate is cool shows current ) 
 

instant weather maps doesn’t seem to work at the moment 

The 1 hPa temp one is over on the other site, not heights. I have asked Paul to see if the GFS viewer here has it available.

 

Update - Watch this space..

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Loads of blocking, the Atlantic seemingly dead as we approach the end of November and start of Winter proper, such a refreshing change from previous winters.

Decent downward trends evident on 850hPa temps and also T2M temps, with reasonable model alignment gathering too.

The EC Ensembles being visible on Meteociel lifts the lid on what's in 51 Ens box so to speak, and you find crazy delights such as this. A Good spot from EasternScotlandWx on Twitter earlier. This P3 chart the coldest of the 850hPa solutions finding their way to our shores, not a forecast strictly for fun. Think we would be digging our way out of this lot and many similar solutions within.

On the NH view you can see the Trop Vortex receiving the old one - two via the Alaskan Ridge and more importantly the retrograde Greenland Block, this uppercut is one that is very rare given we are within the classic period where it usually intensifies. That is still happening but much further aloft, and given the blocking at sensible levels where the weather is determined creates a lot of opportunity for colder solutions. Not without peril in terms of how the low pressure around Azores / Iberia behaves - but the overall trends are good. Looking farther ahead this level of blocking sets the stage for potential SSW into the New Year, and also ahead of this the MJO becoming active and emerging to traverse the the Western Pacific will hopefully create enough action to reinvigorate the existing blocking regime, again aiding further perturbance to the vortex. Cat on a hot tin tropospheric roof.

Great weather for being out walking !

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ooh Tony - where did you get access to Decider ? 

It just popped up onto Twitter feed Nick - if only !

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Awful outlook really..

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Are we ignoring the parallel run again now?  It’s looking pretty poor on that model compared to recent days. 

Not at all and it's a great call out. Parallel is on the other side of the envelope, given the prior trends and clusters a rebound to the chart below would represent quite a coup. Ens will be worth a look.