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lorenzo

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Posts posted by lorenzo

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Minds greater than mine help me out with models and here we see the East Pacific trough get really sharp at day 6

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Dinosaur, Reptile, Animal, Hurricane, StormCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Person, Map

    Results positively for -NAO development - we don't have a jet marching through vs the retrogression - things are slowed up. Did not expect to see it flat line south however as per 18z -

    3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    What are we looking at exactly?

    The Jet stream.

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    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Hey Lorenzo 😊 I know you've seen some of my in depth outlooks in the mod thread and I've mentioned quite a few times I really think watching these severe cold pools that are in the modelling could be very relevant as we progress into December. 

    Keep up the good work KW - you are all over this just now - great to see 👏

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    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Blocking galore - but what will it eventually deliver.  Been a while since anomalies like below have given the Atlantic some food for thought, this at 192 isn't in the far reaches of reality either.

    Could contain: Pattern, Plot, Chart, Accessories, Face, Person, Head Could contain: Chart

    Some patience needed as lots of modelling to get through yet - so easy to see things in fast forward mode when looking for things to fall into place.

    UKMO is encouraging

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Map Could contain: Plot, Map, Sea, Nature, Outdoors, Water, Atlas, Diagram, Land, Face

    Just the small matter of getting that massive chunk of TPV to take the journey from Asia to Europe - something the GFS thinks about in the later frames - to really see Europe into the Freezer. It's bittersweet chart watching, the hunt for cold is enjoyable, but the realities in terms of costs of living / energy demands do temper things this winter.

    animldi7.thumb.gif.212f3bab145eda13e9b061b571469f63.gif

     

    • Like 11

    Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Interesting times for the vortex, and as Blue states above the FWIW leaves the lower reaches open for interest.

    Couple of flat NASA plots to contextualise  the impacts of the Scandi regime on the vortex, quite significant. Merra put the Momentum Flux into the record books in the 00z forecast run this morning, the much maligned CFS u product has caught a glimpse of SSW leanings before, and we now have reversal pixels into the New Year at the edge of the range, one to watch.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart Could contain: Chart, Heat Map

     

    Could contain: Accessories, Gemstone, Jewelryimage.thumb.png.f96274a3622813629f00f176d2f66c9d.pngCould contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, ChartCould contain: Outdoors, Nature

    Finally an animation from 84/85 which I can see from H5 reanalysis posted on Twitter has been a pretty solid analog across Nov, and it's a good vid !

    https://www.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de/~Thomas.Birner/SSW-animations/anim-PV/1984-1985_530K/loop.html

    Best modelling watch for many a year..

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    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

     A bit of digital fun today bought a cow and calf  from an online sale at Thainstone on the phone. Surreal moment. Have used the laptop before.  Bought at 2.30pm and home here at 6.00pm. Some technology  advances really received a boost from the pandemic

    Float driver told me he had to do a detour at Huntly as A96 flooded. He is going home to Portsoy this evening so should be OK on coast road. Had some rain today but still no drains running yet. A lot of this flooding is probably due to runoff as subsoils very dry.

     

     

    You can get anything on Amazon Prime in the North-East these days !

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    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Given the upcoming cold developments thought this thread would be more suited to a slower paced post.. 

    First off the a caveat -  Physical Sciences Laboratory have stymied some composite activity as : Change: The ability to use your own http address for custom files is no longer supported due to security restrictions. This is frustrating as the daily composites allow a little more precision than using the months where variables are suitably in range. If anyone knows of a similar portal that accepts an ftp transfer of a date.txt file to render a composite - please drop me a note!

    Looking at existing variable and considering the NAO- in the immediacy - sought to examine the pre 2000 and post 2000 eQBO / Nina base state, then layer in MJO loosely for P4/5 for a review. The pre and post yr. 2000 composites are below, clearly some differences last century.

    787517100_Novemberpre2K.thumb.gif.9862dae90483bd498749e236bb5b57c1.gif1440469735_Novemberpost2K.thumb.gif.9ed681d949bcb0b2cfd276226e7df129.gif

    These conditions are then rolled forward for the dates used to extrapolate - where we might head next..

    1584_Novemberpre2Kplus10days.thumb.gif.f3445cf230997e4a262236ade3fcf109.gif776317185_Novemberpost2Kplus10days.thumb.gif.5000f98be7d788002195387a80c5a2ac.gif

    Not strat. related I hear you say.. okay so based on the years in question which built the composites, I think the lead would be for a February SSW.

    SSW.thumb.PNG.947f6b3ab0171643ecb818b9539777ad.PNG

    That being said right in the midst of the February action we have this odd season where things doubled up via a displacement and a split

    image.thumb.png.15e122f2cbb163631cc71b983cf7958a.png

    View the action here for December - Displacement

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn ECMWF Analyses

    WWW.METEO.PHYSIK.UNI-MUENCHEN.DE

     

    And here for February - Split

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn ECMWF Analyses

    WWW.METEO.PHYSIK.UNI-MUENCHEN.DE

    November composites for months featuring since 2000 in the original daily set for later comparison to where this November finishes.

    1315857233_Nov2000.thumb.png.c6f98007fad89d5140885f8997231caa.png155454087_Nov2007.thumb.png.a43a564f04458807100ef41145621ffd.png147621049_Nov2017.thumb.png.1cb0fb7533877afa869bf77545b9011c.png

    An exciting start to the season, having watched many animations the Greenland Block is nearly always the one that tips the balance and creates the most chaotic solutions / eventually knocks the strat off it's perch. Will be intriguing to watch how this plays into vortex development from here...

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