rob48
-
Posts
1,094 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by rob48
-
-
Apparently this constant high pressure and clear blue skies are wonderful:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-17476597
I'll have to keep reminding myself.
-
Afer a damp morning it has quickly turned into a great spring day dry with 4.5mm of rain already, which is now becoming increasingly sleety:48
-
I remember how arrid and parched everywhere was looking by the end of July and everything was covered in dust.
Thank goodness August rescued the situation just in time.
We seem to be on a roll of cooler, cloudier summers, I hope it continues.
-
1
-
-
Fears of British super-drought after record low rainfall in winter
Underground water supplies are being used to keep rivers flowing in the seasons when they are supposed to be replenished
Lets hope we don't have a "beer-garden" summer, or this will become very serious.
-
Like the way he differentiates between climate scientists and proper ones:
-
1
-
-
"Not sitting out in a beer garden doesn't make a blind bit of difference to low river levels."
If you're not sitting in it due to prolonged rainfall it does.
-
Pertinent reporting here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-15951722
I wonder if those hoping for the "Shades of 76 Summer" were happy that a vital element of our ecology was destroyed so long as they could enjoy their time in the beer garden?
Selfishness to the nth degree.
-
I suppose it's easier to "prove" your point of view when the state broadcaster joins in the propaganda war and you're threatened with jail for refusing to fund it:
-
As far as I'm concerned, this coming week marks a pattern change. The enduring euro high slopes off allowing atlantic depressions to have more influence further south at last. It's been generally settled down south for what feels like weeks with occasional spotty rain and clouds.
A pattern change doesn't have to be a sudden and dramatic shift to the freezer!
Good post.
Nice to see a bit of perspective on the thread.
-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065
The BBC environment reporter noted:
"The researchers emphasise there is no impact on global warning."
Who would have thought it?
I wish someone had laid odds on this reaction!
-
Well, I shouldn't really reply to my own posting
but I feel I need to admit to something here, "me and my big mouth" springs to mind. Supercomputers can and do correctly interpret the weather, even at t+15 day (360 hours!) range. Gavin D did get it right! Expected chaos theory effects etc., call them what you like, on occasion, do not have a dramatic effect on future climatic conditions. Anyway, that's off my chest, what of the future? A gradual cool down to near normal temperatures after early next week. Unsettled, particularly further north and west, driest and warmest in the southeast. Pretty average stuff it seems.
Cheers all.
gottolovethisweather
If you continually predict hot weather "next week" every week for five months, eventually you'll get one right.
Pity we didn't have this heat when he was forecasting it in July, rather than spoiling the week just gone.
-
Damn!
Booked a farm cottage as base for a walking holiday next week and it looks like it's going to be spoiled.
Nearly a year of perfect weather (except for lack of rain) and I'm about to cop for mid 20's by the look of it.
At least it shouldn't be humid, just too dry.
-
Having just got home from California where temperatures were 30-40c each day coming home to 16c with a cold wind definitely required something to take the edge off!
Once the house sits below 19c it becomes chilly for sitting so a little warming to 21c made it feel much better. My house gets cold easily as it is an old building.
Your house might be warmer - or you cope better in colder conditions - and no doubt much worse than I do in warm conditions!
Very true, I've been lucky this year.
-
My house is now regularly below 20c - been hovering around 18-19c this week under the cold cloudy skies.
It's a much better 21.1c currently as the sun is nicely warming it. Makes such a difference. Won't need the gas fire like recent evenings!
Gas fire?
Monday was the first night that we closed the window before going to bed.
-
Damson picking underway here in Staffs too, elderberries ripe and sloes almost ready.
Lovely time of year.
-
Overall: a blessed relief after the disquiet induced by the "shades of 76" forecast.
Thankfully there was no real heat and humidity apart from a few days at the beginning of August.
Only real negative was the lack of rainfall, which although not as useful in summer, it was yet another drier season.
Hopefully autumn will rectify this.
Highlight?
Posters in the model discussion thread identifying a heatwave, next week.
-
There is some support from the ensembles but ECM could be an outliner
An outliner?
Yes a very nice ECM indeed no signs of Autum storms at all, this time next week could be very pleasent indeed if ECM is correct .
Yeah.
Could be.
You've been copy and pasting this hopecast (in various forms) since early May.
-
Cool & wet please.
Seems to have been dry forever.
-
Rain fall amounts continue to look like been either average or below average for the 6 months to February, only Scotland is above during Janurary
Temperatures look like been below average during the months upto and including December, then average or above for Jan and Feb
One thing what i've always wondered is the bar below the charts has 35 to 85 either side but what does that mean?
Do you mean "been" as in the historical, past tense?
Or are you trying to write "being", as in a prediction for the future?
-
Another rain forecast fails to materialise.
Ground dusty, leaves turning, rivers dropping.
Really need a wet autumn.
-
Totally agree, however its not just GP, But netweather and the Daily Express forecasting beaureu ( positive weather solutions ? ) also are
way off the mark, with almost the complete opposite forecast to what has turned out to be the case. The problem typically is this ;-
Firstly we have a seasonal High which is usually positioned over the Azores, known as the Azores High, similarly one often finds a west Med High
pressure zone during Jul and Aug, as well as in recent modern summers a tendancy for a High pressure to form and stick over Western Russia. So with the Greenland High joinging the other three, there is just no where else for Low pressure, cold pools to go other than stuck over or near the UK.
My personal beleif is that the Greenland high is in someway a result of global warming, with the arctic an increasingly warming zone relativley. As a result, the air aloft is warmer even up to the stratosphere. Now if you look back at the attached chart, you can see the whole set up is comfortably balanced, how nature would want to set up. I can see less variation in our British Climate over the last 5 years.. Yes the winters are getting colder due to sometimes simliar pressure distribuion, however the summers, and the prevelance of northen blocking is growing stronger year on year. I firmly beleive the summer we have now will continue through to september. However then as the northern hemisphere cools, the heat of late summer lingers over central Europe. Allowing a bartlett high to continue there. The UK, finally has a greater tendancy for higher pressure and warm south to SW winds, hence the pattern of warm autumns, cold winters, and cool, wet, cloudy summers which have been more or less very consistant over the last 4 years. I know this is incredibly pessismitic. However if you interpret all of the models, means and ensembles, its very easy to see how the above fits the pattern I've described. I can see as global warming takes hold of the globe and in Europe, British Summer temp means ironically could drop a little, as we revert to growing cabbages,onions and leeks, rather than tomatoes and cucumbers.
The most encouraging post I've read on here in ages.
Hope it all comes off.
-
I take it you dont understand how lrf's work then. lrf's do change and are updated from time to time, thats normal.
In order to avoid confusion perhaps it may be appropriate to refer to the summer LRF in the plural rather than singular tense in future?
Anyway, nearly halfway through and no uncomfortable heat yet, bar a couple of days.
By the end of the month the reduced daylight hours will become noticeable and the countdown to the end of summer can begin.
-
set in stone-are you joking mushy, no forecast is ever that!
500mb anomaly charts accuracy
lets say at that time scale I would tend to favour them to either GFS or ECMWF in terms of accuracy, they are all of course doing similar things but I find the 500mb output is more stable' is the word I use and a better guide to the weather type. It has always been easier, prior to computers and since to get the upper levels more accurate than what happens 18,000ft below! But the overall weather type, surface lp's dominating, mobility, or high pressure and lack of mobility does follow relatively easily from the 500mb level in the broader overall pattern.
Beyond the 10-15 day mark then the teleconnections are just as liable at the longer term to be either right or wrong or a bit of both just as any forecast can be.
Especially those LRFs
-
Really enjoyable read on this latest model thread.
Certainly improved by the absence of cherry-picked FI scenarios at six-hourly intervals.
but I feel I need to admit to something here, "me and my big mouth" springs to mind. 
Supercomputers 
Gavin D did get it right! Expected chaos theory effects etc., call them what you like, on occasion, do not have a dramatic effect on future climatic conditions. 
Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Another spin-off from the high-pressure that some posters are so fond of:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2120988/Scorched-earth-smoke-surrounds-Welsh-town-arsonists-sparks-hill-fire.html
They must be well pleased.