Tony Gilbert

Classic hook Pampa east of Amirillo TX. Something on the ground now. All be it brief!

This cell should produce!

Particular attention is now drawn to the region central south Kansas/ Oklahoma border. Whilst SPC currently have just 10% probability for tornadoes within this region; in reality this could be much higher. If we move away from the usual parameters for forecasting tornadoes then we can see the potential for very localised strong updraft potential with potential for strong rapid rotation at cloud base level. 850 mb strong jet has full influence. Classic but brief dynamic extension from cloud base is more than possible here! Time window looks to be next couple of hrs with one or two cells developing along the cold front moving east. Second or third cell look to be the main producers here! Ideal position now Medicine Lodge!

This post would be better placed in the day 20 discussion. But can't get access! Today the 15th May looks to create three target zones ATM;- TX Panhandle dry line, Central south KS (cold front) , Illinois (cold front). My virtual target zone allows me to stay put in Pratt Kansas. Are the V2 guys there, because I expect they are? Todays outlook is rather complicated IMO. With the best upper support staying almost north of the cold front for much of the period. Particular interest is given to Pratt region due the models continuing to show exceptional dynamic ascent indicated within the upper humidity values. A sharp low level jet looks to dive south by late afternoon rapidly increasing low level shear. It will therefore be essential for chasers to remain just SE of the coldfront as it moves east where the vorticity will be strongest. Upper support looks to remain steady and enough to allow for storm longevity but avoiding the fast movers. It is however noted that a condition of negative directional shear will exist Kansas between 850mb and 500mb. Mid level meso development will be unlikely. But central portion of current hodograph forecast show enough shear for low level meso and tornado development ATM I expect the tornado risk to rise from 5% to 15% by mid day EDT and the outlook to go moderate.

Certainly some deep thought needs to go into your position for tomorrows outlook. Today heralds a small risk of moderate hail and localised thunderstorms around Abilene or just south of Cap Rock. Though IMO tomorrows risk could go moderate for southern Kansas. All it needs is the jet to drop a little further south. My virtual chase would see me blow out today for a good position in Pratt, Kansas! B under no illusion V2 are probably already on their way! PS. An early thread on tomorrow is in order!

My virtual decision to stay in Kansas City last night gives me a relatively short drive to Jefferson City, central Missouri. By late afternoon the RUC increases upper and low level shear for this region!

Some uncertainties regarding progress of cold front. Careful monitoring of this transition will be paramount for good positioning. My virtual chase starts from Kansas City where I am rather dubious about moving from ATM. Close monitoring of the dry line to my south and intersection to the cold front will be my target. Though it is noted that the strongest upper supporting winds will in fact likely occur much further NE (NE MO or Illinois). It is the latter region that will pose the highest risk of tornado events. Whilst the target to my south on the dryline has potential for isolated tornadoes and large hail. We will nevertheless see some rather fast moving storms today across MO with bowing line segment by late in the day. An important day for watching surface obs to develop your picture of unfolding events.

Signals from what I can see ATM is that the CAP may in fact not be breached on the TX Panhandle. But even if it does the upper shear will barely separate the updraft /downdraft and thus could all become very messy even with phenomenal instability in place! The SPC must be basing the 5% tornado risk on sharp initiation of early cell development with brief spin ups possible. Conditions are favoured further north central west KS with a very strong upper jet nosing in by nightfall. Though once again some doubt as to what time the cap will break in this location. Quite possible these storms could initiate just after dark making chasing a very anti social affair indeed! Serious considerations needs to be made today by chasers that are on the plains as to whether to get into position for tomorrows moderate risk. Chasing either of these targets today could easily make the journey to central east Missouri or Illinois just too far to get to in time! Based on what I can see on the models ATM I would certainly consider using today to get in position ready for tomorrows outlook. At this point I would consider getting to Kansas City for the night and finely tune my plans for Weds Outlook. I cannot entirely rule out an increase in risk for west KS today but by 2pm CDT it will probably be too late to get in position in any case!

Meager pickings for a couple of days. Based on the extended model I would feel inclined to drop this lot and shift north to maybe Colorado for the start of the next wave around Tues. Always nice to get the long drive out the way first IMO . Good luck guys :lol:

Yes, Roger has some good points here and I agree Waco or marginally further west by far is the best deal available ATM. Though, there is no doubt based on the most recent RUC update that there is some real limitations regarding results today!

Good target zone is Bowie, now (A few miles NW of DFW) The RUC gives exceptional instability for the region north central TX. The combination gives a classic low shear high instability environment with slow moving supercell development likely by late afternoon. Low level lapse rate potential for the region look phenomenal to say the least. Expect a very localised weakening of the cap as surface temps peak. Given the potential for very rapid upward development we could well see strong updrafts pull in any and all vorticity available. Likewise we could maybe expect to see one or two narrow but potent tornadoes develop. Not sure if the SPC will go moderate with this risk because the coverage for expectation is rather confined IMO IMO the best deal on the board today but if you are a way off then you will need to haul ass!

The low level shear in the projected region is in reality emphasized by turning within the lowest layer. Such conditions are often overlooked by the basic 0-1 & 0-3km shear readings which may be bias toward vertical speed shear increase! By way of opinion I see the risk of tornadoes on a local scale much higher than 10% ATM This condition probably noticed by Nick also as per his post

Hi res vis sat is telling me much more than the one hr delay from obs; Dryline has shifted much further east in the last hr and instability feeds north under the edge of the residual cloud cover making contact within the next hr. Focus is on and around Jackboro

Most recent RUC model update continues to suggest a chance of a weakened capping just west of Dallas Fort Worth. If conditions come together as suggested then steering winds could well put DFW on a high alert for tornadoes within the suburbs by evening! Obviously from this point onwards surface obs will tell much more. My virtual chase position would by now take me just west of DFW on I 20 ready to exit north. Graham looks good.

I would certainly consider just east of Abilene on the I 20 corridor by mid afternoon, this should in fact be just east of the Triple Point though still along the warm front. RUC continues to suggest that the cap will erode from the underside as temps and humidity increase at surface. RUC continues to break out convection near the Red River but this can only be elevated stuff derived from above the boundary layer. Hense tornadoes would in theory be much less likely for that region! The I 20 will give an excellent means of keeping with these storms using any north exit to gain position from the SE quadrant of any storm cell. It is of great significance that low level directional shear could become synonymous with a full veer. Some real rapid rotation should be visible on any storms cloud base. IMO if they fire in this region we will most definitely get one or two strong tornadoes! Time is of the essence with this one guys. I'd want to be there by 3pm at the latest !

Hard to make any calculated decision on prime risk zone for Tues based on the current model output. A death cap looks possible over the triple point ATM. Unless the models change then the only real option is to move east along the warm front maybe south of Wichita Falls. Dew points expected in the 70s with potential for strong instability if the cap can break. Unsure about tornadoes ATM

Morning guys, probably worth opening a DAY 9 discussion as soon as you get a chance to analyse tomorrows (Tues) potential. A big cap will be in place till late afternoon. But the signs are there around Wichita Falls.

The teams current position puts them in line with the trailing cold front but any low mid level shear will be further east along the CF exclusive to the extreme NE TX/ AK state border within the next couple of hrs. This will now make it impossible for the guys to get there in time! I do not see the SPC going moderate with this risk and I do not see any increase risk of tornado development; 10% seems about right given the most recent update from the RUC model. Tornadoes are marginally possible IMO before around 01Z or 7pm CDT, though it is quite possible that no tornadoes will occur during this watch given the amount of rain cooled air being delivered over such a broad region. Another restrictive factor by early evening will be warming from the mid level downward as increase in temp at 500 mb is noted. PS. Paul if you get to read this; Prob not worth chasing down into Louisiana tomorrow when you have some good potential back on the southern plains by Tues!

Paris TX good, though I would be inclined to drop a tad further south onto the I30 in line with Sulphur Sprs with a west to east option. The SPC just beat me to generating a risk box exactly where they have the 10% risk. Tornadoes are not guaranteed today with rather weak low level shear. Though it has to be said that the narrow risk corridor defined by the SPC will be the only field to play on today. So, all or bust! A small wave feature is expected to develop by mid afternoon advancing another run of convection. Worth noting exceptional moisture with low LFC. A few funnels should be in order within storm initiation, atleast.

A classic chase day with the potential for slow moving well defined tornadoes within a low shear high instability climate. I agree with Nick, this one could go moderate. Locating the triple will be key to success. I usually draw a line between the contrast of low to high dew points. Low to high temps can also be use here. TP can be recognised by studying this line to recognise the intersection of occlusion and cold front by a pressure drop and wind veer. Classic chase day potentially. I would be getting to Witchita Fall by mid afternoon and then check the surface obs.

Good move Paul. Obviously make the most of whatever potential is available for today without any long journey, maybe! RUC currently suggests that some small pockets of convection could break through the cap but the cap will thin close up again!...Maybe just too strong for weak underlined convection to break through and then keep the break open? Tony

Hi Paul and guys. Hope you are having a good chase so far! My input is optional at this point. Not optimistic for today! Could do alot of running around with very little to show at the end of it; Heavy cap in place and may not weaken at all ie.Your zone. All the models are saying this ATM. Periphery storms are likely to fire by late afternoon west of Odessa but I do not see them gaining strength under the current climate. Opinion! Stay in Lubbock and watch a much better outlook unfold for tomorrow. Thats just my opinion! good luck

Hey Paul, just goes to show how some fine surface tuning can deliver the works!

Certainly some moderate CAPE about ATM. SPC reports 2 tornadoes KS and another in TX. Almost no vertical shear over KS so these could well be Convergence Zone type tornadoes developed along boundaries. Some moderate low level shear SE TX could spout another couple maybe. Though the upper shear doesn't look to overrun the storms at that location so we could have some limitation for large hail and further tornadoes maybe. Still worth monitoring though

Hi Nick. Yep I'm going to try and get back on this one later this evening. Though a quick look seems to be rather restrictive on tornado development ATM. Though given the likely development of surface boundaries some weak CZ tornadoes could get reported. PS. Last nights risk for tornadoes was definitely underestimated by the SPC IMO