Tony Gilbert

Vis Sat says it all

I'd actually want to be somewhere between Abiline and Lubbock now. RUC shows a build up of helicity values 0-1km 350 m2/s2 and 0-3km 500 m2/s2 stacked. This one should blow a big one off so long as it doesn't line out within the next couple of hrs.

Cap Rock does it for me every time too. Saw my first tornado near there in 2000. Whilst SPC only give 5% tornado risk based on limited SB moisture. Based on the the obs I think this risk could be underestimated. Almost a bullseye with stacked shear in just one location as per map.

Biggest risk will remain with the next cell to develop here over the next hr or two

Most of the action so far has been well north of what the earlier models were predicting. Looks quite nasty out there and I don't think it is over yet. A good number of the tornado reports line up very well with the track of the Triple Point. Though given the prime core of the jet stream overlayling the best instability I am not yet writing off some action central east Alabama on 'Tail End Charlie' :lol:

Yes Dog, things could get going today much earlier than anticipated. The region at risk of severe weather will cover many states and not just the risk box that I have shown above. This includes the distribution of tornadoes. Though from a virtual chase perspective the best chances for the strongest tornadoes should occur primarily Alabama after 19Z. Though as always that is a personal opinion :o I would like to add further detail to this interesting outlook, hopefully a bit later this evening!

MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY/GULF Fri 10th April 09 All the hall mark for HIGH RISK UPGRADE. Strong possibilities for multiple outbreak of tornadoes based on the NAM/RUC.

I had to turn in early last night. But looked like you guys had quite a show! ATM several injuries reported but no fatalities, thankfully. I noted that some tornadoes certainly occurred further north on the Triple Point in MO and much further south in LA within 'Tail End Charlie'

I'm taking a maybe different stance to the SPC ATM regarding prime region at risk. Whilst a tornado watch is in place for Oklahoma ATM, it is quite possible that any vigorous convection will be capped off for a couple of hrs yet. RUC place an impenetrable cap over much of the region. For now this can only serve to amplify the moisture advection toward the NE. 0-3km shear is very strong and should be enough to compensate 0-1km shear. Conditions look to be in place for the development of very large hail and isolated tornado reports across SW Arkansas 22Z-03Z. Which is very bad chase country! The overall risk of severe weather may not be as widely distributed as what the SPC risk boxes are suggesting due to continued capping IMO. The set up nevertheless warrants a serious risk of strong tornadoes developing in a lined cluster. My virtual chase puts me on the state border between OK and AR around DeQueen Highway 70 now. There will be 2 to 3 major supercells in a back building motion (almost cyclic in nature) . All capable of producing tornadoes. I Wll take the last cell to the south which will likely utilise the strongest shear potential. There are no guarantees when making predictions but thats my best shot ATM

SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU Thurs 9th April 09 Some uncertainties regarding moisture return ATM but the potential is definitely there!

Ah, got ya Paul. Yep she was a bit rude too! Strange cos they have usually been so helpful in the past. Prob a bad apple

Called XM radio today. Sadly they were not willing to waive the activation fee and were not willing to allow me to pay for my usage fee upfront? Blimey Paul did you flutter your eyelids at them or something?

Hi Dog, 18th May-3rd June! :lol: PS. Regarding Travel Insurance; My bank account supplies me with free all year travel insurance as a bonus!...I decree for insurance purposes; I am going touring across the USA as my vacation. Though alas this period tends to be rather stormy across that part of the USA. You should then be covered for any stated eventuality, including weather related. Why complicate things? :o

Good idea Paul. I'll get it sorted. :lol: PS. What did you pay for activation and how much was the monthly cost for XM this year?

Hi Gorky, Most US hire cars or vans have atleast 3 cigar lighter sockets. The last van I was on had about 5! Another mistake I made years ago was using a multi socket extension lead from one lighter socket. They just can't take the load and pretty much melt. I do prefer to make that effort to charge all my electrical gear overnight in the hotel room. In fact it is the first thing I usually do when I open the door! Only got to worry about the Baron and laptops on the road then.

Choose your power inverter carefully and test it well before you leave. I blew my power unit on my laptop on the firsty day last year and had to buy a new laptop out there. Unknown to me the inverter was set to reverse polarity. This year I have got a standard plug in 12 volt 75 W adapter which processes 220 volts to my laptop. A bit more safe. PS. I hate dragging around the big breeze block type inverters which are much too bulky. Worth giving this one some consideration. Me thinks

He he, Paul. Classic mate

An accurate severe weather forecast remains questionable within the models. Pre frontal MCS continues to saturate the atmosphere ahead of the cold font with rain cooled air. Focus for the best convection within the cold front will rely on a speedy recovery of surface temps. One tornado just reported southern MS though the cold front looks to be a very linear feature ATM. Though if we look at the combined potential instability to be released and the exceptional helicity values tornadoes remain a strong possibility over the next few hrs close to any bowing line segment. Prime positioning ATM looks to be specifically central Alabama between 21Z-00Z.

I have never chased that far SE in the US but if it is anything like the Gulf coast of Texas it will consist of poor road networks and bad visibility due to patchy folage!...Though having said that if there was nothing else to chase in the USA whilst on vacation then I would probably still venture that way. Today's outlook gives a different perspective from each model. Hopefully things will look clearer later on today. Storms will be ongoing throughout today along the SE Gulf Coast States along the outflow boundary ahead of the cold front. By early evening we have a significant chance for stronger storm development Central Alabama through to central west Georgia as the CAPE recedes back toward the coast. Very strong upper jet enhances storm cell development with the added risk of an isolated strong tornado! Certainly one to watch for later!

I see a good virtual chase coming on for tomorrow as the outlook is continued moderate Thurs 2nd April. MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MS VALLEY AND SWRN TN TO WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA....

Hey, what a good idea Ross. I'll give it a go next time I go clubbing . Cheers mate

Don't forget your anti-glare night vision glasses. Some night driving automatically goes hand in hand with US storm chasing. They will not give you night vision but they will stabilise the constant glare of oncoming cars!...well worth the small fee off EBAY.

20 tornadoes reported through this period. Thankfully no injuries! An interesting cluster noted to the far east coast of the USA which was well off the earlier SPC risk box. At least 3 tornadoes within the suggested risk zone on this thread. Ps. Sorry I was unable to virtual chase late.

Yes, some big changes in the pattern is occurring right now!

Yes agreed! When the jet stream dips this far south it will utilise the best possible warm moist air feed from the Gulf. Even though early season, this has all the hallmarks of being an interesting set up (virtual chase). SPC priorities Triple point for the most potent risk of tornado development. Current forecast synopsis delivers the TP into Louisiana by early evening where very strong CAPE values are being predicted by the RUC , which is well beyond what the NAM model had suggested earlier. Contrary to common belief, it is not always the front left exit region of the jet stream that can develop the best upper lift. On this occasion the 'RIGHT' exit region fans outward creating lift within the diffluent zone. This is timed in nicely with the northward 70 dew point plume and strong CAPE. Whilst wind veer looks rather weak at surface the dynamics from mid levels look to more than make up for this discretion. Given the level of deep layer shear we have the potential for supercell development where tornado genesis relies less on the environmental shear and more on the vorticity produced by the downdraft of the storm itself. Certainly one to watch for if you can manage to keep awake till the early hrs tonight. :lol: