Tony Gilbert

Hi NL, yes 3 brief touch downs recorded by SPC for that cell within the earlier region of interest. PS. Just to say how much I agree with your footnotes on common misconceptions at the bottom of your posts!

Yes, some back tracking by the RUC since the last model output with a stronger cap evident over suggested region. Potential seems rather less now than earlier thinking. It is quite likely that the storms across the risk zone will in fact continue to develop from above the boundary layer . In which case tornadoes would then become fairly unlikely for that region.

Could be some underestimation for tornado genesis SE OK and NE TX by late afternoon and early evening IMO. Heavy capping south of the stationary cold front insulates a continued warm moist surface feed up toward Oklahoma. Cap is expected to erode as a result of this advection. Cold upper pooling aloft stretches south ready to rapidly increase lapse rates around any cell that breaks through the cap. Net result could be quite explosive on a local scale. SPC are going for the risk of very big hail. Earlier concerns regarding the development of surface based storms seems less like a problem now. Certainly one to watch for over the next few hrs. I would put isolated tornado risk within the said zone at about 15 %. But then of course we can never really be certain. Though my overal opinion based on the RUC model would suggest the potential risk of some very powerful storm between 21Z-03Z

Yes, TVS reported on that cell

Yes, since the earlier model output there has been some good increased scope for storm activity across Texas during the afternoon. This needs to be monitored. Though for me the prime risk for tornadoes specifically, will probably occur much later after dark along a line from the far east TX and through into the southern sector of Louisiana. This is the period where a very strong surface boundary should develop.

An interesting set up today across Louisiana/ Mississippi as the cold front becomes stationary creating a west to east surface boundary to the south of the main area of precip outflow. Storms are possible where convergence is strongest and can overcome capping. In addition to this we do have a slight risk of convergence type tornadoes within a vorticity rich environment. Though the main set back from a chasers point of view is that most of this activity is likely to occur overnight and probably will not be seen to be reported. If you can manage to stay up late enough should look good on radar maybe! All in all a rather low risk outlook ATM

Ah, missed that. It is in the community forum area! Thanks Paul

Dear Netweather staff & members, With many Netweather members taking advantage of the USA storm chase tour this year. I wondered whether the managers would be willing to introduce a NEW forum (open to everyone) specifically for Storm Chasing in the USA. Within this heading members could discuss the coming severe weather outlooks, preperation of kit (for those going out), experiences, photoes etc. Whilst there is currently a 'Worldwide Weather Forum'. This tends to be rather non specific to those wishing to chase on the Great Plains. The heartland for the big storms! Many thanks <_<

There is no doubt that since the early days of storm chasing the sport has become very popular indeed. Popularity has been accelerated recently by a number of high profile chase documentaries with emphasis on the adrenalin side of things. Since 2000 I have noticed the increase in chaser tour vans on the road and chaser convergence, especially across the southern Plains. It could be said that many veteran chasers will deliberately favour the high plains just to gain free space around their storm! On a personal note I'm not too phased by the current level of interest. Ultimately only a few committed chasers will last to the next season because the interest is so demanding. I am happy to chat to other chasers out on the road, having a common interest. Though it has to be said that I've nearly been wiped off the road by a few inconsiderate chasers! ..that could be where the problem will begin! What are your thoughts on this issue, and do you think that this is a good thing regarding more reporting or a negative thing regarding maybe some bad press regarding chaser etiquette?

UPDATE 9.12am Sun Both MMN and GFS pretty much in agreement now regarding convective potential today. UKMO synopsis no longer sees the development of any surface trough for the UK. The occlusion over Ireland is rather de coupled from the projected CAPE values. The original outlook was based on the potential for solar heating today. Current thinking would still suggest there is a small chance of true convection occurring if surface temps can rise under clear sky's. Though rather a big IF! Probably still worth a look in on the 06Z model update!

Hi Nick, a classic example as to the limitations of the current forecasting systems models understanding!.... A long way to go me thinks! Yes, major back track IMO. Prime mild air advection looks in place but recent models drop dew point ratio to expected temps pretty dramatically. At best rather elevated convection likely now!...I keep looking for some surface convergence but maybe this is not to be. Overal outlook based on the most recent model update is even more restrictive. The models are in disagrement best wait till morning me thinks

8.25pm Sat MMN and GFS remain in stark contrast, as does the UKMO synopsis. Current thinking would suggest GFS is rather over bullish with CAPE values given the obvious seasonal negative indices! A balanced view based on both models might continue to suggest a small risk of some convective showers SE regions late in the afternoon. I no longer hold with any sferic activity. The variation in model output and synopsis is rather jumpy to say the least. Best way to deal is to await mornings model update IMO

A small risk of thundery showers for England and Ireland through Sunday. Unseasonal mild airstream from north of Azores is funneled across the UK and Ireland. Depression central Atlantic and west of Ireland allows for this transportation. Some clear sky's expected to induce solar heating through the day. Convection can only occur as a direct result of this process. GFS look to base moderate CAPE on these values alone. MMN do not see this, or at the very least is very restricted. Ireland's convection is derived via tightly wrapped occlusion whereas UK's is the development of a small surface trough. This is a slack regime and at best can only produce pulse type cell development. But given the potential for surface heating ahead of the trough we do have a small chance of the odd sferic on taller building cells. Prime location for the UK looks to be from a line from Oxford through to Essex late in the day. Update later this evening

1.45pm Fri 30th Nov 07 There is a Slight Risk of General Thunderstorms 15Z-00Z Fri 30th Nov 07 West Ireland, West Scotland, Wales, Northern & Central regions of UK There is a Slight Risk of an Embedded Strong Cunimb Cluster Developing within the Tail of 'Comma Cloud'. There is a further Slight Risk of Strong Isolated Tornado Development within such development North Central UK regions 18Z-00Z Discussion Current forecast synopsis suggests the development of a small meso scale depression (comma) just behind the occluded front later tonight. This aligns nicely with a deep upper trough axis. Comma clouds are typically capable of creating an enhanced environment within the southern spiraling tail. It is this location which will require careful attention during this evening. The rapid progress of the upper cooling process will be essential to tonight's outcome! Mid level dry air punch likely to trigger best line of embedded convective cells (red box) and hence limited coverage for the severe weather. The dry intrusion is shown to run east aiding the upper cooling process to the south of the depression. It is within this zone that the best upper shear will exist. The development of any comma cloud should create better low level directional shear than what the models are currently predicting. It is based on this feature that there will be a slight risk of developing tornadoes. Upper marginally negative directional shear is counter balanced by the overwhelming increase in speed shear. This process in theory will be more than capable of producing horizontal barreling for a time with the strong possibility that stronger developing cells could rotate. Mean average convective gust within red box based on 800-600mb suggest well over 50kts possible. Given this fact alone we atleast have the potential for thunderstorms of 'severe level' This forecast will be subject to a further update by early evening. The above forecast is based on the full development of a Comma Cloud; ie, no comma then risk dramatically reduced!

Agreed!...especially considering the grief we had with the Baron earlier this year

Dear Netweather members, I have cracked a deal with vodafone for data in the USA. The current offers by vodafone online are about £25 per month with additional £4.50 per day for usage! This could work out damn expensive! I have spent some time explaining the needs of UK chasers when in the USA and vodafone have come back with a pretty good deal;- Free modem or data card with 12 month contract £12.50 per month 3GB download max in UK Extra £1.00 for first 15 MB then per day then £2.00 thereafter! This is an excellent deal for those considering chasing in the US next year. T. Mobile and 3 are still unable to offer any service whatsoever in the US ATM and it is pretty much impossible to open a data account in the US unless you are a US citizen with a US address! This offer is not open to anyone and will not be available to the general public. If you are interested then please email me and I will send you the email address of the vodafone customer rep. PS. I am not on commission I am just trying to share info :o

Thank you all for the response to my email. David Powell was our site investigator for the event, though has been unable to find the source of any footage supposedly available. I have also spoken to Mr Mercer the landlord to the Smugglers Inn and am awaiting for photo's of the the stones inside the hail. We are particularly interested in the getting hold of the person that took the film of the waterspout as it hit the pier. If anyone has any further detail on this it would be much appreciated. Thank you

Dear Netweather member! TORRO would like to know if anyone actually saw the footage that was in circulation in the south east news reports of the waterspout which damaged the Hastings pier. Alternatively did anyone actually see or know of a photo available as the waterspout made landfall becoming a tornado? Thankyou for your assistance.