Cat 5

Now been named Tropical Storm Gene. About to make land fall in Figi's southern Island. Here is the Figi weather marine bulletin. Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:06pm on Monday the 28th of January 2008 **CORRECTION TO NEXT ISSUE TIME. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP. TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 EAST CLOSE TO RAKIRAKI AT 6PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS of 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 85 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT TO 150 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS VITI LEVU TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG WINDS BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.. The following information is provided especially for the mariners: EXPECT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO EAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11PM TONIGHT. Looks like this system is going to go straight through Nadi (where the Figi meterological service is based) Here is the Figi Public weather bulletin. Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:04pm on Monday the 28th of January 2008 TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP. TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 EAST CLOSE TO RAKIRAKI AT 6PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS of 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 85 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT TO 150 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS VITI LEVU TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG WINDS BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.. The following information is provided especially for the mariners: EXPECT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO EAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2AM TOMORROW.

Brief spell of heavy snow fall in Glasgow. Lasted around 5 mins.

Discuss? Nothing to discuss as far as I am concerned - it is a load of twaddle!! A rock... big deal! Bloody tabloids B)

Not too sure about this one. I was surprised to read that Scientists would like to test such vaccines on terminal patients. That is scary.

Hey Kold Weather, I tried to PM you but your 'inbox' is full...! If you get a chance speak to Paul alternativley empty your inbox a bit and I'll send you through a proposal / idea. Cheers, Cat5

TSR predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2008. Theres a surprise! Prediction consists of the following; 15 Tropical Storms (58 year average 10) 50% increase 8 Hurricanes: Cat 1-5 (58 year average 6) 33.3% increase 4 Intense Hurricanes: Cat 3-5 (58 year average 3) 33.3% increase ACE Index 149 (58 year average 101) 48% Increase To add to this there is the systems forming in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Carribean Sea. Summary as follows; 11 Tropical Storms (58 year average 7) 38% increase 6 Hurricanes: Cat 1-5 (58 year average 4) 50% increase 3 Intense Hurricanes: Cat 3-5 (58 year average 2) 50% increase Ace Index 122 (58 year average 78) 56% increase Personally, I dont think these forecasts are worth the paper they are written on, but this is big business and people will pay for any information being offered. Regards, Cat5

Thank you Coast - do you find these are accurate?

I cant believe how hard it is to get hold of one. I would like a portable digital thermometer which gives accurate(ish) readings - trouble is I cant find one anywhere

Dull but mild in Glasgow. Intermitant showers - nothing too heavy. Very little wind.

There was a tropical Cyclone called Melanie back in 1996 - I thought they could not re-use names!? Anyone know why they have this time?

Thanks for that Reef. But was last night not the 17th were you are?

What is the season low so far? I notice the highlands are expecting -10 tomorrow.

Thanks for the info Debs, will it make any difference to the naked eye?

Well played my son - you had a blinder!

This time last year I was on holiday at cayo coco, Cuba. Exactly where Noel is today. Could spoil some peoples holiday - or make it for others!

I can stand and stare at the ocean for hours. It amazes me. I love the smell, the noise and the respect it demands. My brother lives in a sleepy village in Sutherland - when ever the wind picks up we go to the end of the pier and marvel at the sights. I love gale force winds and they way the sea reacts. Whipping up the waves and smashing them against the sea / harbour wall. Whilst growing up I have always lived by the sea, from the beautiful unspoilt beaches in Caithness to the more touristy promenades in Norfolk and Essex. These are my fondest memories. Playing on the sand dunes with golden sand is in my opinion as good as it gets for kids. My wife and I are thinking about starting a family next year. I am currently in the middle of Scotland but in order for my kids to enjoy the best bits of my youth, I would seriously consider moving house to be near the coast. The trouble is it is hard to find any unspoilt / unpolluted beaches these days. What are your opinions of the sea? Cat 5

I am like Eddie here - My favourite weather is strong winds with a bit of horizontal rain for good measure. On one hand you can go out and feel the effects of Mother Nature at her worst or alternativley, you can snuggle up to a blanket in front of the open fire....

It just makes me wonder though. Do past systems influence the forecast of the current ones? In this instance, the route predicted is identical to that of Alpha. However, Alpha was hugley affected by Wilma acting as a magnet. I wonder if, without this influence, NOEL may take a more Westerly route - maybe even brushing Eastern Florida?

TS NOEL seems to have a lot of similarities to TS Alpha from 2005. Identical trajectory, almost the same date and similar strength.

Thanks Mr Data - great work. Should this be visible now or will we have to wait until this evening? If anyone can see it, please report in!

Hi Viking, I have not heard anything recently on the liklihood of Mount Kelut erupting. Is it possible for (hmm how do I put this?) things to calm down without any eruption? Cheers,

Care to elaborate Mr Holmes?

I hope you are in your mid ninties...! Either that or enjoy drinking white spirit

I would add a couple of words here. Taxi.

I am just saying that it is an obvious statement to make. We had a very mild winter last year, i assume it does not take a rocket scientist to 'predict' this winter is likley to be cooler! It is like saying that next year is likley to see less rain during June and July than this year. Yes, of course it is not likley to be as much rain but they are covering themselves by saying "Likley" - so if we end up getting more rain next summer they are not wrong by what they are saying now. i.e we did not say it will not happen but it was just not likley. Am I waffling...!?