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Radiating Dendrite
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Posts posted by Radiating Dendrite
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-8c here this morning. I've enjoyed the cold spell, but a mild break to recharge the batteries would not go unwanted now. The snow has now turned to sheet ice and it is not particularly pleasant.
Models do look a little conflicted, but I'd say mild and then a little chilly later next next week with a possible colder reload in the NY and maybe from the east.
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23 minutes ago, TN9 said:
If they ( showers ) move which is painful watching them.(slow ) get one over head it could dump a lot on you ..its getting them over head ,met office are one step ahead even on guessing ,because global models are mammoth processing power but trying to pin point a little circulation in channel and also just off the Philippines is hell of a thing to work out
The low is expected to form in the channel this evening - I wouldn't waste your time watching the showers over the west country.
Just now, Bazza118 said:Very cold here at the moment. Still -7.8c and very high cloud starting to roll in.
Yep - brass monkeys!
-7c here in Purley.
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The models seem to be upgrading the event for later today. Think anywhere south of Central London could see a few centimetres, would be lovely to have some crunchy snow.
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Just now, Downburst said:
With that sea level pressure?
Given the low Dam and cold uppers the sea pressure is largely irrelevant. We have seen easterlies deliver snow showers at such pressures.
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Just now, Battleground Snow said:
Surely be a few showers/steamers off that northernly even though the raw output probably looks dry
Get the 850s a couple of degrees lower and the north sea snow machine would go into overdrive.
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4 minutes ago, Laurence Hill said:
What are the implications of a Scandi High? In layman’s terms please.
Colder and snowier than the current setup.
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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Nice to see the PV has chosen Asia for his holiday destination this year. Let's hope for some strike action so he can't make it back to Greenland and Canada.
Some places in the UK could see a lot of snow over the next couple of weeks and it is the perfect time of year - no strengthening sun to melt it away.
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Looking at the ECM again on the 3hr intervals and it's underwhelming in all honesty for this in the south. The uppers max at about -6c and then we have pockets of warmer uppers in the trough circulation before the low moves in from the SW and brings rain.
For my location, all I see is a few cold and sunny days with frosts before the rain returns.
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Think I'm missing something here - all the GFS shows after the initial northerly is a series of lows bringing rain with the possibility of snow for Scotland?
Where is narnia?
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Great charts again - the ECM would likely correct south, models are always progressive with energy against a block.
We usually say with a cold spell, we have a ticket for the raffle. This feels more like a stash of tickets for the euromillions.
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A few already looking for the breakdown lol.
Out in lala land the models are always too progressive. We either get a high on steroids or a resumption of dart board lows. The answer is likely in the middle, a possible waning of heights and then either another cycle of amplification or a messy breakdown.
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9 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Gfs sending coldies to work on a Monday morning with a smile on their face.
Somebody mentioned 2010 last night and that is starting to get pretty close to that in terms of GH and very cold NE flow.
Great to see, but a looooong way to go still.
Nice to see the 00z improve on the 18z run. It is normally like waking up with the beer goggles having been taken off, but last night we did actually pull a cracker!
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Surely the elephant in the room is the lack of low pressure in the med. We see the same theme each winter, sinking high that had nothing to prop it up.
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2 minutes ago, jules216 said:Never seen so much hype when ensemble mean is showing -2 uppers, what is clear to an unbiast viewer there are 2 issues. 1. Trough that slides down to Portugal pushing ahead high pressure from Greece-Turkey to central/east Europe cutting of Easterly pronto. 2.Attempt at -NAO later engages Scandi trough with Portuguese one forcing west based -NAO later putting America in to freezer yet again! I will revisit this post again in 2 weeks tíme to prove I was right(again) in between 1000 posts showing Snow Nirvana past 240h desired model that shows this.
Let's just hope you're very wrong then.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the projected uppers are not spectacular, but the pattern with such a strong positive heights anomaly is what people are getting excited about. We usual start December mild and wet with an angry PV over Greenland...... just nice to see something a little different showing.
I don't think I've ever seen you be positive about a colder scenario - always in the I told you so brigade.
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Isn't this just typical early winter chart porn?
We know the story, once it gets near semi reliable it all goes titus verticus and we're left chilly and damp.
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Just looks wet for the foreseeable with mild temps, trending a little colder over time.
Yawn.
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15 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Mild and wet in winter can feel every bit as cold as freezing weather.. given lack of any solar input it makes little difference really. Key issue isn't the weather, its the terrible insulation most of our homes have and consequently poor energy efficiency levels.
True, but then a home insulated like an electric blanket is not the best thing come our ever warming summers.
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Hopefully mild and wet given bills and also the water shortage.
Transitioning to a post fossil fuel world was never going to be cheap.
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Northolt and Kew both 39.5c at 2pm, so they may squeak a 40c.
Think things will start to cool off a touch in the SE now though ahead of the front moving the uppers away.
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16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Last night's top minima according to Weatheronline:
I am surprised that Kenley was as a high as 26c.
I am about 3 miles from the airfield (100m lower down) and we got down to 21.5c last night.
Can only put it down to us being in the valley and the cold air sinking.
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Dissapointing here, got some high cloud which has seen temps fall a couple of degrees from a high of 34c.
The heat is very dry, after having gone for a walk, I have felt far more uncomfortable at a humid 28c than what we currently have.
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Does seem some big temperature variations between locations.
Charlwood is about 20 miles from me, they were at 34c at noon and we were only hitting 29c here.
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4 minutes ago, Nick L said:
Starting to think the same. Think we're going to struggle to beat the record today. Highly likely tomorrow though.
Yep, temperatures were slightly too high on the models compared to actuals.
I seem to be in a cool spot, only 31c in my garden. Heat is nice and dry, just like being on Holiday.
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Hitting 29c now in the SE according to live viewer.
Anyone use METO WOW? Find it very glitchy, expecially on mobile.
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Why is it when a cold spell looks like ending we get the, these models have never seen such a rare setup before myth being belted out.
They're algorithmic, data crunchers..... every synoptic presented to them is rare as no two things in the atmosphere are ever the same with it in constant motion.
I think some people think they're real living enterties - Gary GFS, Eric ECM and Urs UKMO.