[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

Places in the SE already at 26c by 9am.

I am a little surprised, as we are only just nudging 23c in my back garden.

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

A place to post your latest temperatures and reliable station date, onwards and upwards to a possible new record and 40c over the next couple of days. 

Don't forget those nighttime minimums as well.

Currently 21c here after a low of 19c.

38.7c, we're coming for you!!

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Something quite surreal hearing a meto forecast saying 104f! 

I think we're now looking at:

Today, peak at around 32c.

Monday, temp record goes, somewhere gets close to 40c.

Tuesday,  temp record gone again and also 40c. Could be looking at a 41c and I think we'll know more after how hot Monday gets. 

Wednesday, much cooler, but still a high 20s number in the east (perhaps 30c).

Also, nighttime record will get smashed. Could be looking at 26c overnight Monday. 

Unbelievable Jeff!

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

27 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Dewpoints looking favourable for snow in the South next Tuesday.

 

 

Could be a bit slushy though.

 

The irony! I'd give anything for a decent -2c dew point in winter! 

[Competition: How hot is it going to be?]

41.3c Tuesday - Lincolnshire.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Out of the frying pan and into the fire on the GFS 6z.

Widespread 40c even on Monday, with temperature records smashed. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I agree with @CreweColdearlier. Seems like 850s are upgrading again little by little each run.

I think once high res models like WRF come in range we will see more realistic i.e. higher 2M temps.

my personal guess would be 40.2°C at Hawarden for the UK maximum.

That would be a 5c lift on the existing Wales temperature record which was also set in Hawarden in 1990 (35.2c). I do not see that happening, maybe around 37c / 38c.

 

I think the temperature record will be somewhere between North London and Lincolnshire, similar to where the existing once was set. Think we could be looking at 40c / 41c by Tuesday.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's true hot spells get watered down sometimes, but it doesn't seem to be like winter when almost everything gets watered down: hot spells sometimes verify and even upgrade!

We'll just have to wait and see - and enjoy the coming week too!

Difference in winter is everything is on such a knife edge. If it gets watered-down in winter from -1c to 2c, you end up with cold rain and no sledging. In summer, if it goes from 33c to 30c, we're still getting the paddling pool out!!

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Another theme developing is the increasing potential for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly in southern England, if the Iberian low takes that track through the Channel. London definitely included in that risk zone. My take is that the 12z GFS is just as extreme broadly speaking but when you spread out the heat over a larger portion of the UK it allows stronger sea breeze influences which may be why the southeast gets knocked down from 42 to 37 or thereabouts. It may be an overcorrection, the marine influence would only extend inland 10-20 miles at most. 

Could somebody perhaps post what is considered to be the all-time UK highest temperature? I have a distant memory of reading that it was 100F in July 1868 somewhere in Kent. Has that been (a) verified or (b) broken since? 

38.7c - 25th July 2019, Cambridge Botanical Gardens. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Just like winter - GFS & ICON teasing people whilst the ECM & UKMO suggest nothing to get excited about. 20c and mainly cloudy skies. 

 

 

Where you live perhaps.

Looking at sunny and 26c here by the end of the week. We made 22c today and had some lovely sunshine. 

Some people need to relocate. As a northerner originally, the difference in summer between the north and SE is stark.

[Summer 2022 forecasts and thoughts]

Pointless speculating too much - hopefully it is warm and sunny. 

Given energy prices, an average 16c CET for every month of the year would now be most desirable!

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Windy here, but I've seen it worse in all honesty. Having experienced the Christmas eve storm in North Wales in 97, this is not anywhere close in my locale. 

Swaying trees and a few wheelie bins have fallen over. 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Just now, Boro_andy said:

Long time lurker of not much knowledge but seeing posts about a “stringing jet” could be a potential for my area, Peterborough.

What is this and I’m assuming it’s not good news with some of the images posted above. What should one expect from this?

Sting Jet - enhanced localised winds as higher winds above make it down to the surface. Could be looking at 90 - 100 mph gusts if it occurs. 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

4 minutes ago, WindWatcher said:

I’m really worried for my neighbours house, their house burnt down last summer after a neighbours BBQ got out of hand. The builders despite working 7 days a week haven’t got to the stage the scaffolding can come down. Most of the roof is on but the windows aren’t in upstairs. I hope that scaffolding doesn’t collapse causing even more damage. I might have to set up a camera if is as bad as expected down here.

BBQ got out of hand? What were they doing, putting petrol on it? Christ I struggle to get mine going most of the time!

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

29 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Looks like GEM might need to calm down a bit as well - 100mph gusts inland? No thank you.

Always tend to overplay the wind speeds.

Will probably track further south, with 60 - 70mph gusts across Southern England..... stronger at the coast. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Just looks like another FI wild goose chase.

Some seem to never learn. Mobile February is what I'm expecting given the strength of the PV even if there is a disconnect. Plenty of cold rain to balance out the dry January. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

Happy Christmas to all you fellow weather loonies!

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

Just now, Rayth said:

Im sure , you are contradicting yourself , its called the model output thread , so if they see snow , they comment on it , there isn't a 'reliable time frame' thread , why don't you start one? 

There was!!!!! a lot of ramping!!!!! though by the usual!!!!! posters!!!!!

My discovery of the ignore button has helped my enjoyment of the thread significantly.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Sorry for those who are now going to miss out, but it always looked a slush fest at best.

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

ICON12z running!

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’ll be Narnia for many on Boxing Day looking at the latest charts, it obviously won’t please some !! But compared to most years this is good for coldies 

What charts?

The precipitation will be too far south by then, unless you mean a bit of frost on the ground?

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

2 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Perhaps u need to move countries or lower expectations. Compare these Synoptics to previous borefest years then u might appreciate the interest shown by others 

I have lived here for 35 years, believe me, my expectations are pretty low!

I just do not understand what people are getting so excited about - the way some are acting, you would think we had another 2010 on the horizon. This looks like standard UK cold spell, not quite cold enough for anything interesting before it then disappears.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

5 minutes ago, supernova said:

Disappointed at current charts/outlook? Wow, tough crowd.

I am looking for snow.

All I see is rain and then when the cold does arrive, it is not cold enough for a snowy easterly - mainly dry, before it potentially turns mild again.

Not exactly narnia.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I was just about to post these areas as the sweet spot going off all models.

Regionals could be important in my opinion as i believe its game over now on christmas day and a good chunk of boxing day for the south. The far south especially.

(Dont bite my head off at that if you live in these areas as its just my opinion based on all this mornings runs and factoring in space for further model bias adjustments.

Areas like Sheffield, Derby, Leicester...

Plenty of interest for these areas with short range modelling soon to be important!

It was never game on for us in the south.

This does feel like the last knockings of winter, everyone getting excited at some possible slush near the end of March after a mild winter.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Each run now becomes huge , the 06z is now huge I’m also now keeping an eye towards new year, but I think we need Xmas to fall right fir new year to be cold - it’s an all or nothing this one which is a little nervy !! 

I thought the ones on Sunday were huge? Are these now mega-huge?