Radiating Dendrite
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Posts posted by Radiating Dendrite
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I'm a bit confused exactly what people are now chasing?
Whilst it looks like it could turn colder, any frontal snow risk is either too far south or when further north, it is not cold enough?
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Time for a break for me - see you all next week.
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Not sure what people are moaning about in regards to the UKMO, it looks fine.
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1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:
Good things it’s the ICON
This issue is it has consistency with its earlier run. I'm starting to think this could be a close but no cigar situation. Christmas day could be 10c down here, wondering what the hell were the models playing at 6 days ago.
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ICON 6z has nudged things a little further north again - similar to the GFS.
Going off those two - Christmas day is relatively mild in the far south with a wintry mix zone over northern England.
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1 minute ago, Mark Smithy said:
FI? Help me here please?!
I'm not too worried by the overnights although the deep cold synoptics have definitely pulled back from about five days ago. The 0z GFS did not get a lot of support in the ensembles.
Some real battle ground synoptics for the coming week including the big day and I still think the cold is going to win out this battle for at least this week.
Fantasy Island - the point the model loses it's head and cannot be trusted.
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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:
I think I’ve found the likely explanation for improving model output, it refers to NAO recent forecasts are maintaining the block better….
But the NAO plots are just reflecting what the models show.....it is not an independent teleconnection.
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Just now, nick sussex said:
Oh no the 63 comparisons have surfaced . This is always a bad sign !
Time to get the Coldie Helpline on speed dial !
Not just 63! 1881 as well.
Will be 1683/84 next!
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Is a whiff of 62/63 on the later GFS charts. The NH profile is very unusual!
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
T210 and we’re ALL done and dusted (to coin a phrase):
Nothing marginal for most of the country on that.
This is what we need to see the model adjust too for Christmas day.
Highlights that it wouldn't take too many southern corrections.
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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:
Visit meteocial- and run
through the proposed 850s ... nothing apart from perhaps the extreme coastal line.. would be rain !!!!!
I have - snow is unlikely south of the Midlands up until very late boxing day.
The 3rd system which comes through, would be snow for all though.
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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:
Can ya imagine- the potential snow depth in a rounded24 hr period if this falls as modelled!!!!!!!!!
As I said above, around 0cm and 50mm of rain here. I know this is IMBYism, but for those not in the know who live in the south, these charts just show a cold wash out atm.
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5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
BOOM
Still need it further south for the southern contingent - we are not all lucky enough to live 400m up!
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Yep, too far North on the ICON and not even Scotland is getting snow on Christmas day. Let's be honest, it's model fodder 99% of the time.
One of the issues we have is that Western Europe is not cold. A SE off the continent will not be of much help given the 850s, really need the front to slow or go so far south we pull in a NE wind.
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Just one further thing to add, is that the models can also underplay the 850s a little as well at this range. Even if they're only 1/2c out, it could make a big difference.
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
EC is good -
Next 48 hours critical for snowline ..
Think you need to add an extra 100 hours onto that! Snow line can be a few miles.
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3 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:
Im just loving the fact that we are talking about where SNOW might fall.
Great day so far on the models...pub run to come but overall trend looks well stabalized with good consistency and some fine tuned synoptics.
I would still caution that the snow is showing in FI. Let's get this down to 4 days out first before getting our metre sticks out!
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Just now, LRD said:
It'll trend south - seen it loads of times in this set up (well, in the rare times we get this set up!). It sometimes goes so south that everyone misses out on the frontal snow!
Yes, I've seen these things move from snow just over Scotland, to the thing trending as far south as the middle of France!
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- Popular Post
Let's christen this one with a boooooom!
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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:
I just mean for quick route for cold - for Xmas day time!! Although it nearly gets there
That is not a million miles away from what the ECM was dishing up.
Expect a GooFuS Backtrack on the 12z.
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Steady as she goes on the Amuse-bouche Icon 12z.
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5 minutes ago, jules216 said:
Lovely set of 6Z ENS. Bringing back the traditional eastward correction with milder air staying in Iberia for Tamara to enjoy
I thought you were finding a new hobby?
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10 minutes ago, weathercold said:
Has there ever been a bigger, more critical 12z than today’s…tipping point for sure.
Let’s hope the GFS behaves and makes a full turn backed up by its ensembles. Let’s also hope UKMO shows the goods backed up by MOgreps and then the mighty ECM…please don’t go 2012 on us…we deserve some luck.
Nervous times….so much as stake…
Yesterday's?
It could easily change again the following morning.
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1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
Middle one geps? What model is that from please..
GEM I believe
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Radiating Dendrite
There is not a definitive right or wrong answer though as it has not happened.
The truth is always a blend, with the models making small changes globally.