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Posts posted by 492

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!

    Its freezing out there and looks to get even colder over next few days.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    8-10 day 500mb charts continue with the theme of low heights to the south with one lobe of the trough over the eastern Med and another close to the Azores. The ridge to the north is flatter, slightly further south being squeezed between low height to the north and the low heights to the south. 06Z GFS shows the surface high meandering in the vicinity of the UK and western Europe which could give frosty nights with potential for freezing fog and inversion cold. At the same time western Europe is expected to slide into the freezer especially if it manages to catch more of a snow cover over the next few days and a drift from the continent could be decidely cold. 2.5 CM of snow here this morning and still on the hills so feeling optimistic. 

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    Latest 8-10 day 500mb charts both ECM and GFS show a sustantial block in the east Atlantic which has gradually evolved over the last few days. The slow but steady evolution and with little change from yesterday could be a sign of some stability to this pattern. The Azores high is displaced to the north being propped up by the upper trough that is shown to extend ever further westwards from the Med to the Azores. The cold spell originally predicted to end tomorrow looks likely to continue for a while yet at least in the south. 

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    8- 10 day 500mb contour charts show a tendency for blocking across parts of the N hemisphere. The low heights shown to be extending westwards to the south of the UK  result in the Azores high being displaced slightly further to the north with ridging to the NE. The southern half of the UK looks to be at increasing risk of cold as it comes more under the influence of the developing vortex to the south. 

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    In theory - Nothing. I shouldn't worry to much. I have been pretty bullish to friends\family that anything that falls later today will be snow. I remain confident. MET now have us under a yellow warning for snow (mentions hail\rain too) The warning for later today was issued this morning, which indicates the headaches they are having with everything going on. Lot's to be positive about as we head into the weekend and into next week too.

    I have not seen any upper air ascents but I would imagine there is a steep lapse rate in the unstable polar air over the UK at the moment which will be conducive for precipitation to turn wintry once it starts.

    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 492

    What a rubbish winter so far. It was much better last year with hail falling from the sky every other day and sometimes every day for weeks and sometimes it would accumulate. This year all we can manage, at least down here, is the old light rain shower and temperature around 7C. During a northerly In a proper winter the 510 DM line would be at least approaching Scotland and occasionally would extend into the SE yet at the moment it is lost somewhere near the pole.  Complete rubbish however I live in hope and the next week or so does look a bit more interesting. This is more like it !.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=3&ech=6

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=Europe&date=2015012110&size=large〈=en&area=eur

    As the low slips to the south of the UK the flow backs drawing in drier air from the near continent where modest cold pooling is occurring within the cold high. The south easterly fetch from the English channel is keeping temperatures relatively high along the south coast at the moment but as the wind continues to back even here temperatures look set to fall away. So a couple more quite cold days and nights ahead for much of the UK.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2&runpara=1

     

    The upper ridge becomes cut off to the NE on the 18Z GFS P but extends ENE towards the southern Baltic on GFS.

    A mugs game I know but I'm going to back the GFS  P tonight at around T+180 for the next chance of some snow. Even GFS suggests a cold frosty period for a large part of the UK with a drift originating from what looks likely to be a frigid continent.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 492

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    Latest 8-10 day 500mb anomaly charts are very similar to yesterdays although the upper high on ECMWF is positioned slightly further NE and the GFS upper low over the central and eastern Med is more of a feature today. So some consistency over two days with a slight improvement if you like a cold outcome.  

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    the gfs 06z looks very plausible to me....

    post storm ridge, collapsing into a bartlett type high. colder uppers then the ecm sun/mon but becoming mild as the ridge collapses

     

    attachicon.gifRtavn1202.gif attachicon.gifRtavn1802.gif

     

    and is an evolution supported by these charts, so imho is to be taken reasonably seriously.

     

    attachicon.gif610day.03.gif attachicon.gif814day.03.gif

    These later charts make better viewing.. even the GFS shows some noteworthy buckling near the UK and E Pacific.  

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    ECMWF 8-10 day 500mb anomaly chart is today indicating an omega block over the UK with low heights over the Med. There is a weaker block also with a  vaguely omega shape in the eastern Pacific. The blocks are less well marked on GFS but nonetheless are indicative, if they verify, of a slowing down of the northern hemisphere circulation perhaps allowing a colder period to evolve over northern Europe.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Perhaps we should be looking NE in to the 10-15 day period....

     

    attachicon.gifscandihigh1.gifattachicon.gifscandihigh2.gif

     

    Split vortex and ridging tendency heading more and more towards Scandinavia over the last couple of runs

     

    SK

    There was a chap I used to know that made a forecast for the week ahead solely from the 100mb actual charts. I cannot remember if his forecasts were accurate but he was well respected so they may well have given a good steer. The scandihigh2 chart might well give potential for cold from the east if it were to verify.  

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    The 8-10 day 500mb anomaly charts show a strong northerly component across the UK with ridging to the W of the UK . The northern part of the ridging over Greenland is further east than yesterdays output as is the trough to the east. The last few days have seen variable patterns projected at this timescale at 500mb with the strong ridge extending west-east to the south of the UK now transferred westwards into the atlantic. It remain to be seen whether the latest forecast pattern will be replicated over the next few days but there has been a trend to a more favourable pattern for cold over recent days. Models are toying with the idea of cold outbreaks every few days. Even xmas day although not snowy looks pretty cold. With the close proximity of such cold air to our north and the presence of the Greenland Ice cap with some evidence of ice flows extending eastwards from the Greenland coast north of Iceland there must be a possiblity that any northerly outbreak although short lived could be potent bringing the prospect of snowfall to many parts.      

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

    06Z GFS T+78 and T+84 shows a period of snow across the extreme south as a shallow low travels along the English channel.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

    18Z GFS T+84 also shows a hint of snow along part of the S coast of UK and this time within a patch of -6 C 850 temps .The channel low is slightly further south but does seem to keep popping up in the GFS output.  

    • Like 2
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