SLEETY

No model has it correct for Xmas day onwards, way too complicated and far away to know what will happen in these type of set_ups, would not take much change for all UK be in bitter air by Xmas day onwards

Yes the 00z runs always seem to be poor compared to the later run, I can guarantee the 12z runs will be better. Maybe. Ecm will buck the trend and give us a good midnight run like yesterday. I also think the low is being modelled way to far north, watch the following runs sink it south and we end up in a bitter NE wind

Wait until everything gets into reliable timeframe before worrying if its too far North,maybe all models should end at 168 hours like ukmo,save all the heartache in here every few hours!

low pressure in these set-ups nearly always end up further south when it come into the reliable timeframe,ecm op probably one of the mildest runs for london ,when it comes out,everything still too far out anyway to be cetain of anything

Too far north everything, but probably not correct anyway, considering the timeframe we are looking at, nothing resolved today.

Probably give it 24 hours then if it's looking the same as now from the big 3 then yeah time to throw in the towel for a few weeks I'm afraid to say.

Amazing all that cold air and still UK stays in the green looking at ukmo 144 hours, looked ripe to undercut at 96 hours but nope,UK is jinxed, might join jules 2016 in giving up winter model watching, always ends in disappointment

Not much mention of snow in the 10 trend, a vage mention of white Xmas, then no mention of snow again, just that it might get wetter, weird forecast actually, when you look at the potential, I think it's too far out for the MET to talk about the possibility of snow yet, too much uncertainty,or they just hate snow lol Wish people would stop yelling BOOM in the model thread,only when these amazing looking charts get to plus 72 hours should you be confident that it will happen, then you can go BOOM SMH

Cold for sure but deep cold not sure, models look good to bring in the deep cold at around 144 hours but not happening yet, so many things to resolve, still can't rule out sinw for some on Xmas day it self yet!

You can't look beyond 5 days in these set-ups, too much to resolve, doubt we will any the wiser until the weekend, would not write off a white Xmas either.

The depth of cold building out East, I would be amazed if the UK misses out completely, might take a couple of attempts before it gets over to us. The models aren't handling any of this very well they are almost useless when the weather isn't being driven by the Atlantic in the Winter.

Happened countless times in recent decades that the cold goes to Turkey as the high can't get far enough North then sinks South as the jet rides over the top of the High. The UK feels like a curse against deep_cold air hardly ever making it across the North Sea!

15 is the gem run from the other day,very interesting!

yeah need a decent ecm for a change ,if its similar to this mornings,hard to be confident of getting the cold air in.

So hard to get deep cold air into the uk,has to be at +72 hours,or think it wont happen,look at latest runs,cold air never really makes,it. So frustating the UK is to get cold in constantly fighting against the Atlantic!

probably next run ECM matches the gem,and gem throws out a milder run,such is the way of the model world

Ecm outlier let's see the next run match gem for once

The chances of a cold spell are increasing but the MET won't commit until they are more certain, unlike us lot in here, they know if they get on board too early and it doesn't happen they risk their credibility dropping through the floor and the bashing from the press. Surprised no mention at all from them yet though won't be long before they do, tonight's gfs ensembles are the best I have seen since the BFTE IN end of Feb 2018 and the bitter march of 2013 when we had 3 ft snow-drifts Mid-march on the coast from the storm that battered the channel islands This will be much colder spell as its in the heart of winter, long way to go yet before we know if it is actually happening.

The Ecm was good in the more reliable time9frame which is good news until 168 hours so if it didnt run to 240 everyone would be saying an excellent run !

only poor if they verify as shown,which is highly doubtful ,ecm is going to be mild outlier after 168 hours for example

Big fail from Ecm again how can the high retrogress at 168 then 24 hours later start sinking back South,im betting against it being correct by a mile!

people should wait till the run has finished,gfs looking better now! Another nuts gem incoming!!

gfs is the worst performing model on the verifcation stats,always makes a mess in these set-ups seen it countless times before

Hoping for mega ECM to get this place in meltdown later,its been close to it the last two runs,something like this mornings gem with minus 20 hpa heading towards the North Sea might just do it! Best period of model watch at this stage of winter for years!

much better icon at 162 hours!