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Everything posted by SLEETY
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm retrogressing the high again at the end. Day 10 though..... -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Arctic blast in Early April still a possibility then, gfs going for it again. A repeat of April 1917 would be interesting! -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's getting beyond a joke now how the UK can consistently avoid cold air since the beginning of winter gone and still the same this Spring. Running the ECM 850s on the latest run shows it very well how cold air can somehow never reach the UK for any length of time. Ridiculous! -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another easterly bites the dust,end up with SE winds ,going to have to look North now if your looking to see a single snowflake this Spring! -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wintry start to spring if you go with 21st March as start of spring, of course if this was Winter you would expect none of these charts to verify, but different story in spring time, how predictable is this getting now , remember last spring and all the blocking over Greenland, here we go again. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Here come the perfect winter charts in spring AGAIN awesome looking gfs, better late than never I suppose!! -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models going for another chance of a proper easterly after the one forecasted for this week never made it, no signs of any easterly winds throughout winter but now another chance now that we hit spring, can't make this crud up -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Turning drier after this weekend and lots of cold air around, but of course the UK avoids it all!! -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
SLEETY replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Big Easterly setting up on gfs, would take it as it be mainly dry and as always probably too late for anything very wintry -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The very cold air over Canada still firing up the vortex, parts of Canada 15c below average, never happens in UK! -
Just trying to put what you think is freezing cold weather into perspective. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html Max temps of minus 14c in Winnipeg next week and lows of minus 25c now thats FREEZING
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Looks like back to mild,wet and windy again,hate it. Where is that poster who said we needed all that rain we had recently as it was going to turn very dry and settled in the South especially for the spring. Not posted since you said that in the MAD threat I wont mention your name
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So much for the polar vortex weakening in spring,that doesnt even seem to happen anymore,even the huge block to the East is pushed away to allow the Atlantic in enough for the winds to swing back to the S or SW where they dominated the winter. Back to mild windy and rainy weather again,rubbish -
Do you live on the top of Ben Nevis or somethng,beause it was nowhere near FREEZING,over dramatic or what.
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm could well be wrong as the 18 z gfs has the blocking high much stronger, UKMO also looking wrong, this isn't over yet, models just can't get to grips with this high. Would not take much for very cold air to head West -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still too far ahead yet, even if the models seem to want to bring the Atlantic in,6 days ahead is a lifetime in these setups No model can get a grip on this high and its influence on UK in days ahead, woeful performance, think they need an upgrade in how they handle weather when it's not coming from the West -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shame nobody seems interested in what the final outcome will be,when you see the lack of posts, especially considering the lack of any decent looking cold charts during the winter months. Fascinating to see how this plays out, night even get deep cold out East to reach us -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Credibility of all the models down the toilet if you ask me, they just can't seem to work out how much influence the high to the East will have over the UK next week look at the difference between ukmo model this time yesterday and now for example, woeful performance, the other two not much better. Always by default in these scenarios they want to push the Atlantic in, reality probably be the opposite -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ukmo big change from 12 hours ago,not a good look for this model,underestimated the high,no Atlantic pushing through now ,latest gfs also backtracking, models struggle with these set-ups,only seem accurate if the weather is coming from the Atlantic Wouldnt be surprised if we end up with a full Easterly, -
Winter cold in spring again, don't bet against it, despite the models making a pigs ear of deciding if it's going to happen or not.
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shouldn't the meto model be the most accurate considering it is supposed to be designed for The UK climate,yet its been the model most against this easterly the latest run having the Atlantic pushing in at the end for example , so if this easterly does happen, then shouldn't questions be asked why the ukmo model,failed so poorly in forecasting against bitter E winds winning out. Next runs are going to be crucial later today. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models all over the place regarding this easterly, no wonder the met couldn't call it either way yesterday. ECM going for it now, but the other two GFS, UKMO not so cinfident, what acomplete an utter mess. One or more models are about to lose credibility, All these millions spent on weather models now , and they STILL can't decide 5-6 days ahead if UK will get easterly winds or not. No better than 30 years ago regarding easterly outbreaks . -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm playing catch here,been having the Atlantic dominating the weather in its recent runs,now it brings in the Easterly,dreadful performance. Best charts for cold now Winter ends today,couldnt make it up,happens nearly every year like this,but where is everybody,been waiting the whole winter for thses charts!! -
Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
SLEETY replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
GFS 06z says hello to winter in spring again. Another snowless winter for large parts of the country,what an utter joke. Only the dry weather in January saved this winter for being one of the worst in my lifetime -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFs more towards ECM now ,typical,too much energy in the Atlantic still