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SLEETY

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Everything posted by SLEETY

  1. SLEETY
    Well actual track of the low won't be anywhere like this ECM runs when we reach reality, looks wrong, it's been chucking out these rouge runs every 2 days Cold air is hard to shift but ECM just blasts it all away from UK in 2 days.
  2. SLEETY
    Ridiculous difference in ECM from 144 hours onwards compared to 12 hours ago. Might as well bin the run after 144 hours as it flip-flops so much
  3. SLEETY
    Because if it's wrong at 144 then no point looking at later frames is it? Low pressure track looks miles out, they normally slide under these huge cold blocks not through them, bet its an outlier at t 144 onwards
  4. SLEETY
    Another flop from ECM?, looks way too progressive at 144 hours, more runs needed.
  5. SLEETY
    Severe blizzards for many if this ECM verified Milder in the far south for a time but the rain would quickly revert to snow and big drifts being whipped up by gale-force Easterly winds. Places like Salisbury Plain and Dartmoor would get buried. Finally winter weather in actual Winter
  6. SLEETY
    Don't like the icon run it's messy and cold spell looking like ending. NEXT
  7. SLEETY
    Lost the plot now and it's a complete mess,but cold looks locked for the next 7 days, afterwards who knows what's going to happen after that the gfs 06 obviously doesn't know,just throwing rubbish out. Amazing turnaround for UK normally looking in fl for signs of cold weather, now looking in fl for any signs of less cold weather
  8. SLEETY
    Yet 12 hours ago spring like conditions were being shown, very poor performance from the ECM recently
  9. SLEETY
    I'm talking the upper air 850 hpa temperature, such a big difference from 12 hours ago,best to ignore the later stages of the model whatever it shows.
  10. SLEETY
    Hard to trust Ecm after 144 hours the constant flipping it does every 12 hours, a 16 c difference in upper air temps at the end compared to 12 hours ago!!
  11. SLEETY
    Early spring arriving on ECM in just over a week.Another outlier or I am retiring from model watching,starting another hobby
  12. SLEETY
    Don't envy the Met this week, could be surprise snowfalls later on for many, and mavbe even a polar low development to make things very interesting for some!
  13. SLEETY
    I think this low may bring heavy snow to some parts or not even make it as far North for any snow, who knows exactly, but to say this low will end the cold spell, you can't make any decision like that based on this one gfs run,it's way too far away for that!! Bet you ANYTHING you like reality is totally different, save this run where the low is expected to hit at around 200 hours then compare it to actual reality!!
  14. SLEETY
    Met havent ruled it out though have they if you read it.Way too much uncertainty in the models to be able to predict who will see snow away from the usual places like the Scottish Mountains,not hard to predict they will have lying snow at upto 4406 feet above sea level!
  15. SLEETY
    Not as if things are going to play out exactly like what ECM is showing is it,have you not forgotten how poor the ECM has been recently in this crazy outliers on pressure for example and that crud run a couple of days ago!
  16. SLEETY
    Going to be lots of twists and turns yet.That track of the low on ECM too far out to be anywhere near correct,somewhere could get battered by blizzards from it,or it could end up going too far South.We could even end up in a bitter Easterly looking at ECM by this time nest week!
  17. SLEETY
    Scottish ski industry will be doing backflips looking at this afternoon model runs. Is that a polar low developing earlier on. North of Orkney and Shetland. Something that needs to be watched,could be some big snow totals up there next week.
  18. SLEETY
    h# will have to be a dramatic change in the weather pattern 2nd half of Dec then if its going to finish above average. First half looking welll below average CET wise.
  19. SLEETY
    Back to where we were a week ago with Mild Southerlies aned low pressure.Pass the bucket.
  20. SLEETY
    this run is so different to 6 hours agao,its got Azores high moving in now,of all things.FGS looks like ECM from yesterday, Beginning to tire of all the models,all over the place !
  21. SLEETY
    Dreadful performance by the ECM to be so different yesterday to the other models, then to revert to what they were already showing is an utter joke and a complete load of bull You could see the run yesterday was wrong from 120 hours onwards. The programmers of the Ecm need to keep their heads down for a few days and hope they don't receive their p45s
  22. SLEETY
    So much for gfs will be following the ECM later,momentum doesnt stop whatever ECM shows GFS is miles different to ECM and with newer data remember
  23. SLEETY
    Low further North now, like the Met mentioned could well happen with milder air getting into the mix with much colder weather further North, where the two air masses meet is where persistent snow could fall. Midlands probably best place, no good further South for the time being typical.
  24. SLEETY
    Must be using the ECM op from earlier which was a massive outlier, so just ignore what they have said basically.
  25. SLEETY
    Ridiculous pressure outlier from the Ecm, might as well bin the end off the run. Also a mild outlier for temps at the end.
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