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SLEETY

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Everything posted by SLEETY

  1. SLEETY
    The Ecm 3 hourly model will be interesting when it updates around 7pm onward, in regards snow Tues into Wed and later on this week
  2. SLEETY
    Amazing how we get high pressure in the correct place for cold weather when suddenly the Atlantic wakes up and low pressure after low pressure pushes through the UK . Where were the low pressure systems when we had that very mild and dry Feb. Never understand the UK climate,in regards getting cold weather to last more than a day or two.
  3. SLEETY
    Why no warning out for tues/night we'd morning /snow,
  4. SLEETY
    The first low may well end up South of the UK with the Snow not even making it to the South Coast The next low is too far away in the current set-up to be sure its final track. Very exciting week of model watching ,thats for certain!
  5. SLEETY
    Be interesting to see how this looks by Wednesday,dont write anything off where these low pressure systems will finally end up. Somewhere is going to get buried by snow.
  6. SLEETY
    ukmo model lost it this morning,way too progressive with these low pressure system pushing through the uk like it shows. None of the models can seem to handle low pressure coming up against cold air sitting over the UK,no better in that respect than 30 years ago when it comes to fine margins like we are seeing this week.
  7. SLEETY
    I'm adding the ITV forecasters as mild rampers and downplaying cold and snow. Laura Toobin ITV earlier,next 7 days turning wetter and windy end of the week for the North,no mention of any snow ,even for high ground. So rain for Ben Nevis at 4406ft later in the week rain for the Cairngorm Plateau which doesnt fall below 3600ft. Sorry guys up North its over for you all in 4 days. "You cannot be serious!"
  8. SLEETY
    You can tell people till your blue in the face to stop looking 6-7 days ahead and thinking the charts will verify at that range like people were 12 hours ago,with mild air winning the battleMore especially in these rare set-ups with low pressure bumping into cold air over the UK the models always want to bring the Atlantic in too quickly or have the low pressure on the wrong track too far North and the reality is the low pressure systems track much further South as time heads nearer to zero hours.
  9. SLEETY
    The meto and bbc forecasters are all mild rampers,always playing down snow and cold.Wont be able to get away with it this week though,hahaha
  10. SLEETY
    1987 Most winter months above average since then.Pathetic.
  11. SLEETY
    Not warming up as quick as the OP runs are saying.ECM OP like gfs at the top of the pack AGAIN. But alas no record-breaking cold either for early March as some people would have you believe was going to happen
  12. SLEETY
    How is it curtains exactly.It is turning much colder .It is going to snow in places.Their will be severe frosts.The end of the next week was always trending less cold,but if you think the models have nailed the pattern 7 days ahead then you obviously haven;t been looking at weather charts very long.
  13. SLEETY
    This is Woeful from the ECM, the gfs gets a lot of stick, but ECM doesn't appear to have a clue. Historically from these set-ups it's normally the far SW and Southern counties that get hit by the snow when low pressure attempts to move in. 1891 in March is a good example of what can happen. ECM appear to have everything too far North in regards to the low pressure system attempting to move in next week. Hopefully it is miles wrong.
  14. SLEETY
    this is the gfs thats been playing catch up with the other models for the last week,so wouldnt take anything it shows too seriously
  15. SLEETY
    7.6c 56mm
  16. SLEETY
    showing a chart right at the end of its run that finally shows something similar to the 00z run,and before that it looked a complete mess and you wonder why people think its useless.
  17. SLEETY
    WHAT A crud run this is in comparison to the 00z runs.Typical gfs ,thats why looking at fL on gfs whatever it shows is a waste of time,and it never verifys either. Should just end at T120 hours even at that range it normally Mucks it up too
  18. SLEETY
    And how accurate do you think it is.The gfs ENS are known to flip every 6 hours so posting them out to 35 days in a way that makes them sound like they will verify is laughable. Waste of computer CPU .
  19. SLEETY
    Too much reliance on this meto 30 day forecasts,no forecast is anything like reliable 30 days ahead.Remind me how their forecast for the whole of feb turned out in the end for example,issused a few days before feb!!
  20. SLEETY
    gfs with phantom easterly again,have people not forgotten what the outcome of the last Easterly it kept showing was going to happen.It was wrong big time. OH well keep playing the same numbers you may well get a hit
  21. SLEETY
    ECM 12Z mild outlier alert, isnt it always
  22. SLEETY
    gfs is a poor model though so best not to take much notice of it ,especially the latter output which changes so much every 6 hours that it is a waste of time even looking at it. It always is behind the ukmo and ecm in the verification stats,and it gets it very wrong sometimes like the failed Easterly it was showing for days that never happened not that long ago
  23. SLEETY
    GFS proves your point in the latest run as the very coldest air ends up missing the UK again. This is the GFS though, remember a week or two back it had the UK within 5 days of a bitterly cold spell of weather invading from the East,and it was completely wrong on that,so the chances it has the pattern correct after 10 days is around zero percent.
  24. SLEETY
    It rained every day for a month after the cold spell here ended in December,flooding everywhere.Major motorway shut for days causing chaos here as water running off the fields turned to ice on the roads when the colder weather came back in Mid Jan.How can a month of not much rain afterwards mean its too dry.What happens to all the rain we had. If the cold doesnt arrive soon then mid-march onwards it too late for snow to last long away from higher ground.Typical
  25. SLEETY
    After weeks of boring weather,it looks like things are changing towards proper cold.It was always last week of feb onwards when we could begin to see the changes Start. Start your engines,the games are about to begin.
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