Snowmad79

As i said yesterday about the snow pushing into the NW region this morning .... It was trying to snow at 4 am but ive just got home from work and its started snowing pretty moderately here in Oldham and the cars and paths are covering over nicely ... Excellent Stuff

Yeah .. "A day after tomorrow" type event , why ? because us notherners are tough . 12z GFS shows theres a chance of snow showers tomorrow morning for our region as a band of slow moving precip passes through the NW from the North East. As the band moves into and through the region it will initially be drizzle to start with before colder 850's start to dig in and dew points fall to 0c and below.Thicknesses also become supportive for wintery precip. South and eastern parts of Cumbria, Lancashire, Greater Manchester and northern parts of Cheshire may well see drizzle turn to light snow showers that could last a few hours. Coastal areas and areas surrounding liverpool will probably struggle to see wintry precip at first due to the drop in dew points lagging behind, this may also be the case for Cheshire. That said, most of the NW region should see something wintry by the time the precip dies out around midday tomorrow. From Midday onwards keep your eyes peeled where ever you live in the NW becuase all conditions will be ripe for snow so it will be a case of checking the radars etc to see whether any precip will be passing your way.

You know what they say.. The best things come to those who wait. If im honest this cold spell could turn out like a good chedder, the longer it matures the tastier it becomes lol.

Looks like saturday is going to be the day for our neck of the woods. I sharnt be expecting much though until saturday evening and if the precip did turn out as shown on the gfs that would be a fair few hours of snow with it gradually getting heavier around 9pm. As that band flowed through the region the Isotherms (Height that ppn would turn to snow) would also drop with it and the dew points. Looking good. GFS 12z in FI is showing the possibillity of another Retrogressing High northwards which would be inline with what im expecting down the line (a reload of the current pattern) and we could end the month without Atlantic dominance ! which is good news.

I dont understand half the people on this forum. Over the few years ive browsed this forum Frosty is one person out of a bunch who has continuosly given level headed summaries ( or running commentaries lol) of each model run which Ive quite enjoyed to be honest and for once he got downbeat by the output which is understandable but for someone to come on here with that sort of trashy attack on someone is bang out of order and unforgivable. Theres only one thing worse than negative posters and whingers and thats those who cant be sensible and ignore them !. Responding to a negative post only results in an escalation of the issue and a magor headache for the mods so its best all round if you "over look" or ingnore them rather than reacting to it !. Its not hard ya know !

You'll end up with a nasty bump if ya keep on banging ya head like that lol. Nothing is concrete re the breakdown and yes milder weather returning is inevitable at some point but just remember... As the week rolls on by the cold will feel worse regardless of how potent it is and a weeks worth is by no means a bad thing. Some will get snow others wont thats life buddy, you win some you loose some .

Im sorry guys but im really lmfao at all those who started banging there heads on desks when they saw the ECM .. I could feel the vibrations . A bet the mods are smacking there fods pretty hard too right now with all the moving and deleting going on hehehe.

Well it looks like the morning GFS runs dangled the carrot and ECM 12z took a bite of the rotten end !. Seriously its not all that bad ... 12z ECM DEEP FI still shows the potential for the Atlantic LP to flow south of the uk and reload an easterly after a brief boost of southerly air. Could have been a much much worse run tbh. Ps. I notice GP is online .. Anychance you can find my post near the front of this current thread and give me your expert opinion please ?

Pretty much yeah, as i said dont confuse the two chart types and ya onto a winner

On the 500 Hpa Maps they generally show the Hieghts and lows of the Pressure systems with orange being a sturdy High and Blue being low. On the 850 hpa orange represents the Warm Air and the Blues purples represent the cold Air. If for example you look at the greenland High on any 500 hpa Model it appears orange and shows that the HP cell is generally strong with decent Hieghts. try not to confuse the 500 hpa and 850 hpa colors . hope that helps

I'd have to agree that 12z is by far an improvment on the morning GFS runs. At T144 the North West comes into the fray with the potential for a really good dumping !. The Lp to our north sinks faster and the HP looses enough of a grip on the west to unleash the White stuff on us . Generally a good run up to now for sure. Being on the planet 30 years my expectations are high and last Feb came close to the likes of winter wonderlands of pre 96-97 winters with snow lying for 5 to 6 days 2ft drifts and up to 6 ft in places. Could this top that ?

Didnt know which thread to post this and I couldnt find the Teleconnections thread with search function so ill post here. Was just wondering if and when GP logs on whether he could give us a tele update and decypher the GWO phase space chart updated yesterday : I asked a similar question in a previous model output thread but got no responce and generaly said that if global friction torques went negative then usually negative mountain torques follow suit and eventually this leads to a strong negative AAM tendancy. Thus meaning the Extended Jet over the pacific colapses and a trough forms on the western flank of the states ( a bit like what happened at the begining of the evolution of the current up coming cold period and i think the trough is still visable just about at 00 on the GFS charts). Well global friction torques actually went postive as you expect from the mojo's position at the time but the Mountain torques have nose dived into deep negativity recently and now the global tendancy of relative Atmospheric Angular momentum is going negative too which will remove westerly momentum from the atmosphere and would support a renewed trough over the western side of the states along with another break down of the pacific jet( less energy coming our way across the atlantic ?) . My unknowledgable feeling is still of the point I made last time and of what I said with regards to the models FI output of a reload of the current up coming pattern rather than a proper transition into an atlantic regime. I dont see the GH retrogressing into canada personally unless of course we just go off GFS 11 -15 day anomily charts. I'd appreciate it if GP could decypher all this and the Global Wind Oscillation and Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum etc and clear this up for me in an update please. (Just for the record, I do not pretend I fully understand what im talking about at this point so dont quote me on anything lol) Ps . Links to apsects mentioned above : Tendancy of Relative AAM Friction torque graph Mountain Torque graph

Ill have a go i think. Max 3.2 c Min -1 c Wind Speed 16mph

I can just imagine the Stories in papers as we head into the latter part of next week ... 1cm of snow falls in London and brings the capital city to a stand still. Something really does tell me that this cold Snap is going to give me plenty of headaches of endless S and East media snow ramping .

With all due respect it seems that your perspective of Enso winters must have been baised towards christmas pudding El nino's. Way before winter I posted a text file article on here that I wrote using as much info as possible from Netweathers british winter history pages , and another good source but also using official Oni Index ( oceanic nino index) and it basically showed that over all since the 1950's El ninos more often than not have actually favoured Snowy and cold winters rather than that most people consider El Ninos to be associated with wetter and warmer winters. So regardless of being an El Nino Winter or not the chance for a good cold shot was always a possibillty. LOL @ the Christmas pudding correction tut tut

If Im honest I do usually look more at 144+ but with these setups i dont think its wise too because as others have said many times before things can change for the worse or the better at a closer time frame than that. Also, this has to be the first poor GFS run I have viewed since the HP retrogression was nailed so maybe its just the GFS turn to have a wobbler ?. Either way having seen the full run now which I was adamant I wasnt going to do this will still be a fairly sustained colder period and even if the atlantic does show its face later I still believe it could turn into a reload senario.

Looks that way mate, its still likey to be cold even though we'll have to consider ourselves lucky that we get tickled by -5 uppers Judging by that 00z GFS. I wont be bothering watching the rest of the run becuase that puts us beyond next Friday. Our friendly Mr Greenland High decides to block the shotwave up north causing it too stall it would appear rather than slide southwards, which it pobably does in FI

Looking at the 06z GFS just rolling out a snow shower could cross your path Wednesday night when conditions become more favourable in your area, but as ever it will depend where exactly the precip falls on that particular day / night.

Ill go with habitated towns in the England that are and not up a mountain and not up scotland !. Lowest Maximum 2c Lowest Minimum - 1c Baring in mind were talking about daytime and not night time

I would definately say next Wednesday is the day to start lamp post gazing for snow showers especially if you live in the (I absolutely detest saying these words but oh well...) South and East. All the conditions according to the GFS are favourable from miday onwards. Theres a chance that those of us on the south western side of the pennines say around the Greater Manchester area could see the odd flurry of snow as the ppn penetrates inland, as too could the general cumbrian area but again nothing special with the magority of Lancashire looking asthough they could miss out altogether. Things will no doubt change though in the coming days and I will most certainly keeping my eyes peeled for us North Westerners and to make sure the South and East dont get over ramped !! . Anyway good set of 00z charts again this morning with the Greenland High looking as if it will hold up indefinately throughout the entire span of the runs. Regardless of how cold we get, I wonder how many people are prepaired for these solid and pesistant colder temps lasting a week atleast ? just because we may not all get a taste of the real cold or snowy stuff I am have no doubts that it will feel worse the longer it lasts.

Certainly is a georgous chart if ever I saw one !. If im totally honest with ya though Im starting to wish for the typical HP stuck over the uk senario for the simple reason that Im starting to struggle to get all this model ouput around medulla oblongata. Its getting way to complicated even for me to judge whats going to happen from one day to the next with such complicated synoptic development. Bring back the simple weather and evolutions please (joke)! Never the less, bitterly arctic / siberian cold , snow or what ever it does appear this could well be quite a prolonged colder spell regardless of whether the atlantic makes another appearance later on or not.

On this mornings GFS 00z, looks like the HP is slower to actually establish itself over greenland with regards to its core but only a little mind but yeah the GFS is looking good. I havent viewed the ECM yet but last night when i checked the ecm 12z emsembles I thought to myself, If i hadnt seen the 12z ecm charts before hand.. anyone could have argued that the ECM ensembles actually showed what the GFS was showing with temps dipping off with the easterly then the cold hpa's temporarily letting up before cooling off again. I guess what im suggesting is that maybe the models including the ECM may have been trying to work out a reload senario a bit futher down the line. Anyway ... time to check that 00z ecm and ukmo !

I'm a bit nervous about asking this because as far as teleconnections are concerned im a total newbie but i'll fire off a question anway. Friction Torque Mountain Torque If you look at the charts above, The global friction torques are showing a tendancy to go negative, if im not mistaken, negative moutain torques then usually follow suit as is shown in the Mountain Torque chart. When this happens Atmospheric Angular Momentum apparently displays a negative tendancy which is also showing signs of doing just that on the AAM tendancy charts so when the sequences above fall into place westerly wind anomiles are removed from the atmosphere and thus Westerly momentum is removed. Now if this supports a colapsing pacific jet stream and a trough into the united states that is more orientated to the west side of the stats like what has been recently shown on the models, then what do you think the chances are that this current block senerio will be locked in for longer than one might expect especially with a weakend jet coming across the atlantic and the AAM loosing westerly momentum so to speak ? Or if the block does give way what do you think the chances of a rebuild later are on as the things descibed above take effect ?. I know theres a lot more to it than what ive said above and its probably way to early to ask these things but I just had too. Oh and sorry if this has gone over your heads guys ! Ps. for the sake of this being the model thread I just wanna take my hat off to the GFS, its ensembles and the GFS hieght anomily charts that were hinting at the current possible block senario 2 weekends ago.

Oh lord I cant believe the turn around on the ECM with it looking almost certainly like the HP will get undercut rather than sunk. Unbelievable model veiwing this evening I really hope the rest of this run will rise up to our expectations. Looking good at 168 hrs !

Not sure im liking the ECM @ 168 hrs with the 2 shortwaves potentially hindering the northward retrogression of the HP and it also appears the HP is moving westward slightly rather than north... where does it go from here ?