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Brassmonkeylily

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Posts posted by Brassmonkeylily

    Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I know what you mean and I do sometimes have two sides to my self where one side wan't to see the shear power of winds actually getting above 60mph, but then the other side realises that it would likely cause damage to peoples homes including mines. And I also realise that some of the nice trees we have around here would likely be damaged or uprooted and that would upset me as well.

    If only we could find a way to make everything invincible against storm force winds, that would be my dream come true as I could see as many storms as I wanted, but without the downside of damage that comes with it.

    Very sensible response .....

    Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    It is such a shame though that one of the models, the ECM ensembels, are starting to back away from this low now. I am feeling quite sick at the thought of such a good and fun windy spell for such a long time for friday just being taken away at an instant.

    Looks likely I will have to make the most of tomorrows storm now unless the models change again.

    Maybe you should be pleased that if this is the case nobody will be hurt or have their property damaged... ..........

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes if we believed all the wonky GFS runs this winter then it could also have been a lot better, I don't know how many times mega easterly's have appeared, leading all of us (some more than others) up the garden path but the GFS has really pushed the boat out in this respect this year. Still good stuff but rather watered down, when all's said and done

    Some pretty wild weather to come, with a mixed bag of rain, sleet and snow depending on location this week. In truth looking over all the runs on the main models, GFS, ECM, UKMO and GEM over the last few days this has always looked the odds on bet, I certainly never saw the possibility of a nationwide snow event and its always looked very unlikely to be one for the south in particular, as it stands it may not turn out to be much of one for the north either, but that is still up for grabs IMO.

    You would think this thread should be called the "snow model thread" given that despite a really interesting period of weather that's coming up for the UK all that's being talked about is where it might snow. I have a feeling that next week's news coverage may feature the weather a fair amount; snow may be the least of many in the south's concern by next weekend. As for the 12z far evolution it may happen, but given the detail changes we are seeing at close range I feel it's a wild guess, although I would not be surprised to see our weather dominated by high pressure in some form or other.

    great post.... totally agree that next week will be really interesting .. warnings are now piling in for heavy rain in the south ....

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well Im giving it to 22:30 tonight on radar watch then calling it a day- although I already know its game set & match-

    The problem here isnt what the weathers done its the expectation brought about by TV forecasters ( met ones) who are not given enough time to properly convey a message to the audience- & so like a heard of lemmings the general public refer to the MET office site- for warning which quite frankly is an un-usable shambles-

    This Easterly- or shall I say North easterly has been for the Majority pretty dry as the curvature of the isolines is such that the flow suits the extreme east of Essex, a small strip of Central Kent & parts of East + west Sussex-

    We could have made this very easy at the start, & said pretty much faversham up to Gravesend & areas all points SW- along the compass - Plus the SE corner of essex- Felixstowe to Ipswich-

    Tonight will be a case of the meek watch in envy as the rich get richer-

    Ive mentioned sittingbourne about 5/6 times now each day & had Ashford originally as my Jackout zone- both have varified with snow now exceeding 30cms in some locations- & when all said & done somewhere will have 40/45cm-

    Sadly the sliding scale of snow locally to these areas isnt uniform, its at very sharp gradient- so drive out of sittingbourne 10 miles wither way- ( more especially west) & you go from 12 inches to 2/3-

    Its a pity because in terms of cold its been the best for years & would have delivered for so many more people had the wind been a bit more westerly vectored-

    As for the longivity now- I think we have a chance of snow moving in from the SW in 3 days time, the likley hood is though it will be away towards Hampshire/ dorset & we will be dry-

    That leaves us *Potentially* with another 8-10 days of very cold surface air & snow Cover- but not much in the way of snow- very 1986 esque-

    good for those in Kent as it will be a sledging fest-

    Exciting- not really- abnormal yes-

    We need a reload from the East to bring the threat of snow back........

    S

    Steve wow you really have thrown in the towel .. did not see that coming ....

    East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    My interest lies in the late thurs/fri/sat window, this is when I feel that Kent has its best chance to see some convective snow. With cold 850's, lower heights, a biting east/northeast wind and dew points below freezing, anywhere could see snow but as always areas such as the North Downs and Weald are my favoured spots for anything particularly significant.

    After looking at some of the data available I think 5cms is quite possible especially if we see any streamers set up, which IMO could give depths of up to 10-15cms in more favoured locations around the Thames Estuary.

    After that my feelings are that we will have to wait for little disturbances and bands of showers working their way down country to give us any significant snowfall and these can pop up inside 24-36 hours so there will be a lot of nowcasting and radar watching. Then of course we may or may not have a breakdown which could give us transient snowfall here, which may or may not be noteworthy.

    So all in all lots to look forward to over the coming 5-7 days here in the extreme SE I feel.

    James

    I am on he Kent/ Surrey borders near Woldingham.. pretty high here and I would expect to see the first lying snow in the SE .... already -1.5 Here we go then!

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