Welsh_Weather

Currently travelling west across southern Ontario hoping that the clearer skies currently moving out of Michigan hit the Long Point to Port Burwell area by around 2pm EST. Totality is going to be around 3 minutes in this area so fingers crossed I can post some photos on here later. annoyingly the last two days we haven’t seen a single cloud and now we are chasing breaks.

So you are writing winter off for the south of the country on the 5th December? As much as our winters are pretty poor that is crazy statement.

of course, it will come in handy one winter.

You do that Andy, and that’s fine if YOU want to stock up, but last week you were telling people in the Mod thread to buy a 4x4 and stock up for 3 weeks. That is not looking after you and your wife that is telling people to do something totally unnecessary. My main point was to stop writing like the Daily Mail/Express. That’s the reason your posts were deleted from the thread. Like I said in my original post, we all love your enthusiasm and most of the time it’s great fun but the huge font and warnings of “copious amounts of snow” are a bit too much.

Please stop Andy, we all love your enthusiasm but this is getting tiresome now. The big writing and the Daily Express type posts are not helping. What upgrades keep coming? The chart you posted there doesn’t have any snow for South Wales and only a dusting for Mid and North Wales. There’s nothing wrong with a little ramping but some people come here for some genuine info and what you are providing is complete nonsense. Your posts were deleted in the model thread for good reason because you were telling people to stock up food for 3 weeks! Seriously?? Also, patience isn’t what we need when wanting snow at this time of year, it’s pretty much now or moving on to next winter. We might very well get some snow this week, a few flakes/dusting/decent covering for a day or two but definitely not worthy of clearing the supermarket shelves at a time where some supplies are already limited.

Update: it’s pretty vile out there now. Still a few hours until the peak, trying to upload a video but with no joy sorry. The room is shaking at times and it’s not looking like a pleasant nights sleep. Also, frequent lightning and a tornado warning in force.

Stuck in a hotel in Orlando for the next two days. Still eerily calm at the moment with only moderate rain. Local forecasts are saying tropical storm to cat 1 winds here and anywhere between 10-20 inches of rain in the next 48 hours.

The GFS now doesn’t bring in positive 850s until Tuesday for the majority of Wales(apart from the far southwest) and that is only for 24 hours before it sets up another deep cold scenario with a lot of undercutting. Now this is obviously not guaranteed but that’s the third run in a row that the GFS has hinted at this and it has to be watched because it was the first model to pick up on this current spell. It would only take a 50 to 100 mile westward shift to keep the cold over us and those fronts could stall over Wales all weekend and fizzle out without a major warming. With this scenario we wouldn’t require uppers much below freezing due to the surface cold. The feed still looks off the continent rather than the Atlantic. I say all this without the UKMO and ECM on board and it’s still the least likely outcome but let’s see what the later models suggest. The MOs further update has remained bullish about cold weather taking hold again from mid month onwards and maybe this is why.

Been snowing for 10 minutes in Aberdare and already a covering

Opposite you in Cwmaman, slushy deposits all melted now. Still looking ok for Sunday, but not nailed on yet.

Based on every operational in the reliable timeframe. I think it’s more down to you to prove that your opinion is correct. Yes there are ensemble members pointing at cold and plenty of operational’s showing potential in FI but apart from potential I’ve yet to see anything concrete showing ‘real cold’ making its way to the UK at some point.

The fact that the northern blocking has all but disappeared next weekend is telling. But the MO has hinted at the milder weather pushing in just not this soon.

Well we had a dusting last night and all looked good bit now another mild sector with this trough from the north and its once again sleety rain. I'm 200m ASL so it's going to have to be high elevations that profit from this once again. Roll on spring, this winter is more disappointing than last, at least then we didn't have any hope. I've never known set ups like this where we are having a lot of troughs coming down from the north bringing constant rain/sleet.

Can I just say to people stop taking these precipitation charts literally, especially in a set up like this. They are good as a guide but will not be accurate in a showery set up at 6 hours let alone 36 hours. They are better for frontal snow but only then at about 24 hours out and still not completely accurate with intensity/depths. Don't be disappointed if there is a big pink blob over your house and you don't get a flake of snow at a specific time and likewise don't be downbeat if there is blue over you or it is clear.

This is nothing like last week, we have a completely disrupted PV, wth lobes going everywhere, the main one to note diving over or just to our East and itno Central Europe. This isn't far away from a December 2010 setup, yes we don't have the deep cold uppers that we had then and the pressure isn't, at the moment building as much towards Greenland. If we get a mix of all the charts, everywhere will get a shot at snow, even South East Coast. The GFS is a little more marginal than ECM and UKMO but it also brings much more precipitation with very unstable air over the whole of the UK. I believe we will have something between GFS and ECM/UKMO, which would bring cold enough uppers for the whole country even at low levels. Polar lows can come from nowhere with as little as 6 hours notice and have the potential to bring quite a lot of snow in a short period to anywhere. Very interesting model watching but this our best shot at a nationwide event for quite a few years, let's just enjoy the ride.

Currently 2.1c here and sleet.

First proper snow of the winter in aberdare, OK it's wet snow but it's snow, and it's giving giving a slushy covering on the cars.

Don't think so Andy, most of the cold uppers are moving north east rather than east, possibly sleet on hills and snow on the peaks but more likely a lot of heavy rain and hail in this approaching squal line. We may see the odd flake later in the night, and it guess that is what this winter has turned into, a search for a few flakes of wet snow.

Travelling home from old Trafford last night and it was snowing on the tops of the heads of the valleys.

Andy, I wish you would stop postin those charts, they ain't worth the pixels that are used. You've been posting them all winter showing the 'potential' for snow and there has hardly been a flake. But if those charts had come to fruition we would have had feet of snow around these parts. I know it's only what is being predicted but over the years they have been absolutely useless. I don't want to dent your enthusiasm as it is fun but are they really worth getting our hopes up when they are mostly over a week away?

Even mushy has given up on the anything warmer coming this way! I think there will be a gradual warm up from the second week of April, not necessarily from the Atlantic winning the battle, but the strength of the sun is bound to at some point modify these temperatures. But there could well be a lot of snow with quite a strong jet to our south bumping into the block, even if the uppers modify to -1 or -2 with the very cold dew points would still allow snow. I hope I'm wrong though, but dont think i will be, I love the cold and snow but this is really getting to me now. Long daylight hours with no sun or warmth is more depressing than 17 hours of darkness in winter.

Sorry didn't see your post from yesterday but agree about southern England too, I just posted a similar message in the model discussion saying anything significant will only affect the far south west IMO. I know past experiences have no bearing on what happens but I guess in these situations that's sometimes all we have got. There have been occasions when depressions have deepened and taken a much more northerly track, one notable occasion was a week before Christmas 1999 when we had about 8 inches, that was only picked up 2-3 hours before the event. I also agree about the margins on this are very fine as there's only 50-100 miles of the uppers going from -12 to above 0. I think now casting is going to be coming into force big time on this occasion(like most in this country).

I really can't see anywhere away from the far south west getting anything significant as these depressions are always modelled too deep and the weaker the depression is the further south it will be. There may be a few outbreaks of light snow overnight into Monday morning in some other areas from anything that breaks off the main front. All I can see from this is local dustings for some. Hope I'm wrong though, but past experiences tell me I won't be. This does not include the convective sometimes heavy snow showers the east coast ad south east will get anytime from Sunday night through to Tuesday IMO

IMO South Wales will miss out on anything significant as these depressions are always modelled too deep and the weaker the depression is the further south it will be. We may have a few outbreaks of light snow overnight into Monday morning from anything that breaks off the main front. All I can see from this is local dustings for some. Hope I'm wrong though, but past experiences tell me I won't be.