Welsh_Weather

It's happening all too often these days, the standard of forecasters has dropped a lot over the last 5 - 10 years IMO.

Sorry to repeat but this was my post on today's general weather chat! Jay wynne, what a great forecaster! "A light dusting of sleet or snow showers". What the hell is he talking about? How can you have a dusting a sleet??? Where have our proper forecasters gone? This can't even be explained by a live mistake because most forecast these days are recorded as this one was. We really need some better people forecasting, the BBC is slowly becoming the same as the ITV "forecasters"!

Jay wynne, what a great forecaster! "A light dusting of sleet or snow showers". What the hell is he talking about? How can you have a dusting a sleet??? Where have our proper forecasters gone? This can't even be explained by a live mistake because most forecast these days are recorded as this one was. We really need some better people forecasting, the BBC is slowly becoming the same as the ITV "forecasters"!

Just started snowing here! Only light at the moment but at least it has started as snow.

Why are people convinced by the ECM 32 dayer? Last week it was predicting a very cold blocked pattern and as soon as that SW was picked up over Norway it reverted back to what it is showing now. Admittedly it doesn't look great at the moment but if a SW can do that to an easterly that looked so full of promise then if one developes of the huge low in the Atlantic and dives SE then there is a big possibility of the high retrogressing west(like TEITS is saying).

I have a lot of respect for Ian Furgusson but didn't he have high confidence in an extremely cold and snowy spell just a few days ago? No one can have high confidence in any outcome after Thursday at the moment. Less than 24 hours the models were suggesting the Atlantic steaming in on Wednesday now it's been pushed back 2 days. I still think the Atlantic will win out on this occasion but I really cannot see a zonal stup with the PV setting up over Greenland between now and Christmas. And btw I was looking at the UKMO forecast without Ian's input.

How can you even say this is the obvious outcome? The models are struggling with what is going to happen after Wednesday and Thursday and you are talking about obvious outcomes after T240. Ok this is your opinion but it is far from obvious that we are going to be stuck in a "zonal rut". Also nowhere in the UKMO forecast does it mention high confidence.

I understand that you like the light more than the dark, most people do. I can take it or leave it, but to say the clocks should go forward rather than back in the winter is a bit ridiculous. If there's one thing I hate more than dark evenings it's dark mornings. It doesn't get light until 8-8.30am around mid December do we really want it staying dark until 10am or later.

Thats a bit of a bold thing to say. The reasons that the Russian/Scandinavian high didn't work was the strong PV over Greenland and the persistent Azores high. The high to our. North east just needed a little help.

You can't possibly compare models from 1947 to now. They had nowhere near as much data as now. I agree that charts don't pick up on things 2 weeks out and thes pattern changes are difficult for the models, but to compare them from 65 years ago is pointless.

Well there is a chance of a storm surge but in my opinion it won't happen as it doesn't coincide with spring tides, and as you it seems to move too fast.

I agree probabaly not even 50% confidence in this run yet but it can't be disregarded. Maybe its more hope that we don't get a storm of this magnitutde. Will be interesting to see the ensembles later to see if this is backed up. I also agree that 1 storm does lead to another but also at 120 hours out tuesdays storm was looking like a beast and that is getting downgraded slightly every run.

Remember the 'blizzard' that was forecast for southern Britain early last December. It was the ECM that started backing away from that first and that was about 120 hours out. GFS was first to pick up on it and the last to ditch it at about 72 hours out. I'm not saying the ECM is right on this occassion but it does have form on these 'big winter storms'.

No sorry don't know of him but the theatre he was at is only 100 yards from my house. Couldn't get to see him. Snowing lightly here wit about 2-3 cms at the moment

good post there cloud! its well worth a mention, there are a lot of members sub -20 there and if anything is coming from the east that has to be good news. The building blocks are in place

What i want to know is why the met office radar has moderate to heavy precipitation over my area(which it has done for the last few hours) but all we've had is very light wet snow. Last week we were getting blizzard condition with complete white outs at times and it was only showing light to moderate then.

What are you all talking about? why would you want the mild sector further west? that would turn any snow to rain. The low pressure is going to be right on top of us, so why would we only get a few flurries from that?

Thanks for the pics! I am off to skiing to Borovets, Bulgaria in 3 weeks so its good to see all that snow. You are right it was a rubbish winter last year very difficult to ski. Thanks