David-kig

the gfs between 160-192 does have the p/v getting stronger again then splits again????? what mucks up the ridging i see. i can't see that happening to be honest? very confusing. the azores high linking 2. p.v is a problem and azores high on the gfs runs compared to ecm why they are so different

ukmo would produce a good n.w\northery im sure. the 168 chart proberly would of been mint. nice ridge. GEM not as good but more like ukmo then anything else? anybody got links to nogaps and jma?

not as good as the ukmo but better then gfs by far. not far off ukmo just not ridging as far north i think?

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?14-05 that is good. i haven't seen yesterday evening ukmo yet but thats much better then gfs.ecm is so important now

there were changes in the short term on the gfs but still ended up terrible really

poor run. even fl isnt that great! esp south. at least the p.v doesnt get stronger. fl is the worst ive seen lately. very poor run overall. so different then ecm. unreal!!!

the 00z is showing the same toss after some changes. the azores high wont move!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gfs 120h few changes upto 120h but is zonal on the way again? still looks flat to me?

after looking at gfs output and ecm. maybe a middle ground option is the way forward??

ecm 12z and gfs 00z at 192 dont seem far apart. the only issue\ difference seems to be the p.v from what i can see.

yh a nice fl . easterly did try to get going at 192h. better then the 18z anyway. short term lets see if the ecm sticks to its output

oh il say slightly better by 144h but that p/v is annoying. still nothing like ecm. gfs is playing a slow catch up and i mean slow. something around greenland is going wrong or the jet. the experts will know. 150h the easterly is nearly there but missing us totally. azores high looks like it wont move. diff problem. could be a good end???? nice ridge at 180h a northerly? later output becomes mixed..trend towards the ecm at 240h though p/v strong again on this run. more confusion? at least gfs gives a cold dry week. then a nice northerly then cold zonality???????? not a bad run if u look at it? Ecm though is still better longer term i can imagine

gfs upto 78h looks the same as the 18z. maybe p.v slightly further west if a little? doesnt look good already!!!!!! cant see much change from the gfs upto 120h diffrent. urghhhhhhh

ukmo from what i can see upto 120h is sightly better to then the last run. wanting to bulid a high to the n.e quicker then the 12z. not much difference from the gfs upto that point?????

gfs ens show clearly a cooling trend next week with plenty of member -5 and below. still the odd couple below -10. the control run has it own ideas and doesnt agree with the op. fallen out it seems to be honest though. i can't see the beast from the east happening with though's ens. if it stays below -5 then im happy

GFS 00z what a nice run indeed. shame that easterly never quite made it here. but look that that northern blocking ? nice nw-se tilt to the jet to. still seems a slight pain and very active jet? overall a good near perfect run. P.V going west. great start to a new day. lets hope ukmo and ecm follow suit. temperatures on gfs for next look look rather low at times? plent of frost on the cards. better then rain and mild muck by any means plenty of frost next week to. i have no idea how this is going to end up. the landlady at my local were saying that someone on telly\ news of it to be colder by the end of next week???? how cold who knows

im moving ive had enough! lol dorest and somerset is allfall all weekend. time to take a long walk

these low pressure systems need to stay further south to keep us in the cold air which seems at the moment unlikely. i dont think they will go as far north as the gfs is showing. midlands north looks the best bet further south. rain or sleet on the most part

just shows how marginal this event is!

a much better gfs 00z following met office forecast. cold throughout fo midlands northwards with milder interludes for southern areas as low pressure tries to attack from the south west and is unsucessful. much better hopingfor more up grades to come. looks like a wintry bag this weekend esp monday

i see nothing mild or cold on the gfs 6z except further north! not as gd of a run as the 00z

temps will still rise before 3pm though.

i tend to agree by looking at the GEFS ens even though it were the milder end of the ens later on it still shows much uncertainty esp after the 17 th

hey gd morning am i reading the ukmo correctly showing the same as gfs???? GEFS esm are very good. there is slight disagreement with the exact start of the spell and also the end showing like the gfs very messing and don't know what it wants to do. control run at times was cold and some support of being colder then gfs op. very very good gefs has to be said the a gd cold spell dry or not. better then mild and rain

f1 is very messing don't look at that but otherwise still trending with the ECM 12z high pressure close by taking longer to reogress towards greenland. generally gfs 00z is cold and dry. slight downgrade on uppers and most get pushed in france. see no easterly on his run just a slack flow. bring sunshine and frost. overall nothing great on the snow behalf i see outlook being cold and dry next week with a chance of an easterly later next weekend. at the moment UKMO is now on this trend with only far eastern parts having best chance of snow. high pressure close by slower at bring easterly overall. set back on bring the beast btw is that high sinking????????? :s