Totoro
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Posts posted by Totoro
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This one looks a flop overall, can't win 'em all! Light precipitation, air too mild, Dps too high, Low too far south, etc, etc. Not what I would classify as a 'Winter Storm', unless you live in France! What a load of nonsense they spout!
I share your sentiments, but largely blame it on the 'cover our backsides' approach in today's 'who to blame' mentality. From the met office's POV, best they warn of severe weather and nothing transpires, rather than vice versa.
Still, there's always tonight ......... (anyone got a straw I can clutch at? ).
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2.7C now, maximum of 4C at about 2pm, temp very slowly dropping ever since.
Barely any precip to be seen though right now.
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Hardly any point even trying to tell some people that, they will still claim to be correct.
Tell me about it - it's even worse on TWO, some real inexperienced folks spouting out a load of rubbish as if it were fact, and it's obvious they don't have a clue.
Personally, due to the amount of "moaning" in these threads, Im just viewing what the "more experienced" members are saying. Things are still looking good, especially for East Wales, Midlands, possibly areas such as Yorkshire, and Cambridgeshire.Very sensible. :o
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is it just me or does this whole weather system seem to be moving through a lot faster than it was supposed to be!!
This isn't the main system - the centre is not due over the UK for many hours yet.
This explains it well:
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Interesting graphics there. With the wind strong to gale force, eastern Wales could get a pasting. Drifting snow perhaps.
Perhaps, if the temp is zero or below. Looks to me like wet snow at best on low ground with temps a bit variable, ie a tad above freezing - borderline 'wet' snow, even if it settles, won't drift.
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I would just like to say that a few years ago a similar situation arose,a Channel Low was forecast dire warnings were given out ie dont travel,take a hot drink and a shovel if you do type of thing and the south of england awoke to dry pavements the low slid off at the last minute into France,all that i am asking is could it possibly happen again or is the setup now close enough to treat as near gospel,You see ,only the other daythere was a siuation where this part of the world was expecting rain as per the forecast and for a short while thats what we got then due to unforecast frontal movement we had snow for many hours.
Just out of interest,does anyone remember the non event date regarding my opening remarks?
I remember something very similar happening sometime in the early 80s. The difference that time was that it wasn't a borderline situation as we have now - the event that I remember was due to come over some VERY cold air which had been established over the UK for about a week after a big blizzard a week earlier. There was also plenty of very cold continental air which would have been dragged in, so maintaining heavy, lying snow for all of England and south Wales.
Going off at a tangent slightly, this time things are different - if the low takes the 'predicted' track (whichever one that may be - take your pick!) then the air over us isn't THAT cold and the continent isn't THAT cold either, hence the marginality of the situation. There's more to it than that of course (plus less cold air wrapped up in the channel low) but that'll do for now.
Blizzards in City Centres according to the BBC.............Any particular city centres? As things are right now, they may as well draw straws.
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I am confused with the met office warnings. Heavy rain melting snow? Is it going to be rain or snow?
Probably both. Together.
It's an extremely borderline situation, hence my earlier posts on the matter.
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The Met Office warnings are getting silly, take a look as they have made some 'subtle' changes to the Welsh forecast:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/...t_warnings.html
Look at some of the warnings - rain, then snow, then rain again, then snow ............
Similar for south west England:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html
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Wow, how can you tell the difference between the sleet and the snow/rain! lol -_-
Seen so much of the stuff in my life that my eyes and brain 'tuned' to the various types. :wub:
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A mix here of rain, sleet and snow, all falling at once. Temp 1.6C
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Surely though, we're not going to be seeing lying snow - all this snow is meant to fall AFTER 25-35mm rain......
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/...t_warnings.html
IF the temp dropped enough then the snow would readily settle, even on wet ground (more so on trees, grass, etc). I think it's best to wait and see.
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I have a distinct feeling that in this borlerline situation they are covering their collective backs - ie better to forecast snow that doesn't materialise rather than forecasting rain and a blizzard then giving a huge dump.
I hope they are right, but I fear that they are going to be wrong.
Again.
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Don't get too excited yet lol, fair enough if it's the same tomorrow. :lol:
I'll echo those sentiments. I live about 100M ASL in Carmarthenshire and even last Tuesday's dump of 5 inches was borderline - temps are now a degree or so higher than they were then and, for south Wales, I just can't see it happeneing on a widespread basis, if at all. Some favoured locations in south Wales may get some lying snow, but I think the 'best' that people can hope for is snow that simply won't stick/pitch/settle and, more likely than that, sleet or rain.
Now if the temp was a degree or two lower then I'd be far more optimistic, but looking at the charts (which of course are very variable!) I just can't see any major whiteout conditions here.
Perhaps if the precipitation is heavy then that will drop the temp enough, but that will just give the kind of snow that melts as soon as the precipitation ceases.
Give me 'proper' sub-zero temps instead of this borderline nonsense. Far easier to forecast AND 'better' snow.
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Just had a good shower in the Carmarthen area - temp dropped from 3.5C to 1.9C. Large flakes, didn't readily settle on tarmac but settled okay on grass, soil, etc. Left a light coating.
Funny, but the temp was 0.9C earlier yet it rained and sleeted.
Funny old weather. Must be a lot of cold/less cold air mixing going on.
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Ok, when do you think the track of the area of low pressure will be known?
It looks like being one of those times where it will go to the wire, ie it probably won't be know for certain until 24 or 12 hours before the 'event'.
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Morning guys. The thing i don't understand is that METO have a advisory out for parts of S Wales yet on the outlook for each of the cities there is no snow shown. :lol:
That's because there is still some uncertainty as to the track of the area of low pressure - too far north and the south gets rain.
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What's the general consensus on when we MAY see the next prolonged snowfall (or sleet, or rain, etc)?
Is Sunday Night/Monday morning a possibility, or more likely to be Monday Night into Tuesday?
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I suppose it all depends on the temperature on the ground the snow falls.................at 1.1c it was maybe settling on 'warm' ground' and then by cooling this ground then by the time it's up to 1.8c it's cool enough for the snow to settle
That could well be the case.
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Well I'll be ............ just looked outside and it was snowing steadily AND settling, this at an air temp of 1.8C
Stopped now, it was just a shower from looking at the radar, but more seem to be coming down from the north.
Weird weather - last night with a temp of 1.1C it snowed but didn't settle, but now at a temp of 1.8C it snows AND settles.
Just when you think you understand all the snow mechanics it goes and surprises you!
BTW, I live in the Carmarthen area.
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Some pretty dodgy driving conditions there!
Wow, take a look at the ones around Taunton:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/somerset/webcams/came...on=bbc_new_west
Refresh to see the other camera.
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STILL snowing lightly in the Carmarthen area, has barely stopped all day. Most of it fairly light and with the temp hovering around freezing the accumulation has been slight, even in moderate snow. Probably had about an inch settled, but less on tarmac/roads. Temp currently 0.4C
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Started sleeting and settling 2.9C
Eh? Never heard of sleet settling before! You sure it's not snow or soft hail?
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A few (and I mean a FEW!) small flakes blowing around in the wind in the Carmarthen area of south west Wales. Temp 1.9C (although I'm sure my thermometer reads about 0.5C too high!).
This isn't the main precipatation band though, that comes later.
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how about here?
The charts look quite good at the moment for whatever falling here being snow but the amount is really uncertain
your thoughts?
I do wish people would stop asking "will it snow here". There are snow threads for various regions, please try asking in the one that's relevant to you. This is the model output thread after all.
Snow Watch: Cymru And South West England
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
What's a damp squip?