NorthernRab

Maybe this intense cold will knock some sense in to Sarah Palin

Just for those who have missed various other members mentioning this about 1,000,000 times: STOP TAKING EVERY RUN AS GOSPEL. You're only damaging your own health. All I can say about the models this fine morning is that there is a lot of disagreement. The general agreement towards a rapid cool down in Scandinavia certainly is a positive, especially for those further north and east. The tracking of the low pressure systems and their intensity is far from clear, so until we see some sort of agreement between the models in this respect things are going to continue to chop and change.

Of all my years of model watching, I've got to say it's never ever going to be that clear cut. I'll give percentages for the sake of interest, but they are only an estimate at best. Odds of a cold spell in Scotland between now and mid-March...I'd say 90/100, perhaps higher. Do remember that we're actually a North Western European nation and seeing as the Arctic is actually its coldest in late Feb / early March, northerly outbreaks really can deliver late in the season (March 2006 anyone?). Of a decent cold spell, perhaps as high as 80/100 given the very impressive SSW that is forecast to take place around the 17th of January, perhaps a little bit lower / higher depending on what the models show over over the next couple of weeks. It really is so difficult to give probabilities with regards to snow and cold, but I really am confident of a cold spell at some point over the next two months. I'll give a more in depth analysis tomorrow.

Yes LomondSnowstorm is bang on - I suppose you could say we have the chess board and many of the pieces, but the game isn't set up yet, we're not certain that we actually have the queens or the castles and we're undecided as to when exactly we'll be playing. In short, it's all looking very promising but we're really looking for a more north-easterly flow to allow for heavy snowfalls so fingers crossed! Edit: Above is possibly the most pompous thing I've written in a long time!

It's still too early to say as the models constantly flip around at this time frame, but expect colder weather to have arrived or not to be too far away by around the 18th-20th of January. Furthermore, we are forecast to see a large SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) in approx 9-11 days time which can disrupt the polar votext and lead to colder weather anything from a week to four weeks after the event has taken place. In summary, our best shot at cold weather is likely yet to come during the last third of January and the month of February, it's just not very clear how it will pan out at all, it could be a lot more northerly than easterly in nature than is being suggested at the moment, but like I said we'll need some cross-model agreement. Hope that has sufficiently muddied the (hopefully soon to be frozen solid) waters

Highland GFS Ensembles would probably be more illuminating than the Aberdeen ones, seeing as it's currently looking like our best bet is for cold to come from the north rather than the east.

That thread is specifically for 2011, AWT's thread is for any event regardless of the year.

The GFS does love to put too much depth and strength into Atlantic depressions though.

Correct, was just at the Dores Inn for a meal and there was snow on Cairn A'Bhodaich and up Abriachan.

Now what you are saying is quite misleading HarshClimate - a sustained northerly flow will lead to almost everywhere in the UK seeing snowfall as there will always be a variation of flow in the form of NWerlies and the like. There isn't any set up, be it northern or eastern in origin, that will lead to every corner of the UK seeing a foot of snow, some areas will always benefit more. If you're looking to see more snow in Leeds than Aberdeen this winter then you're setting yourself up for disappointment. It's incorrect to say that the polar vortex setting up shop in Scandinavia is bad for snow because that is not necessarily the case. What a change in expectations we've seen following the past two winters, people are even rejecting strong Northerlies! Three years ago, most people would have drowned a kitten for a 4 day northerly toppler!

A fairly calm day in Inverness, no wind at all really!

Didn't quite mean to create a mini debate on the model discussion thread about the population of Northern Scotland but it couldn't be helped. The reason that such a void is becoming apparent between many people in Scotland and the south of England especially is due to just how apparently clueless they are to our existence. Below is my home in the frozen and baron wasteland that is the Scottish Highlands.

Pint? :lol:

1% of UK population = 620,000. A'Ghaidhealtachd / Highland = 225,000 Na h-Eileanan Siar = 26,000 Moray= 87,000 Aberdeenshire = 245,000 Aberdeen City = 217,000 Shetland = 22,400 Orkney = 20,100 Perthshire = 147,000 Total (approx) = 950,000, not far from a million people. So in that respect you are very much incorrect.

More than 1% of the UK's population lives north of Stirling, places such as Dundee, Inverness, Perth, Aberdeen, Stornoway - you've heard of them all because people live up here and we do count I'm afraid!

Bit dramatic.

Coming down heavily now here in Inverness and lying

It never really had much to begin with.

What is interesting is that last December the Greenland High brought largely N and NErly winds (as is the case with Greenies), but December is when the Arctic is actually at its least cold in the winter. I'd imagine a Greenland High in February would be particularly fierce. I remember when my sister's husband first visited us and was very amused by picking up Radio Nan Gaidheal, seeing people play shinty at Kingussie, driving through heavy snow on Slochd and hearing a few teenagers playing the box and fiddles on Falcon Square in Inverness, all in one journey!

Santa on Google Maps (Norad) visited two Scottish locations this year, with Edinburgh and Inverness having their presents delivered at approximately 1:00AM. He then visited Iceland before returning to Ireland (Shannon) to prepare for his epic Transatlantic voyage towards America.

Merry Christmas from a (yes, you guessed it) windy Inverness! Here's to a few blizzards in the new year!

Hope you're well Catch.

Nollaig Cridheil a h-uile duine / Merry Christmas everyone! Hope it's a good one / tha mi an dochas gum bi e math!

Bear in mind that people do live in the Highlands though. Wednesday looks quite interesting for some fairly heavy snow, especially for those in the Duthaich Mhic Aoidh region.

Facing the Highland Capital on Black Friday, a brave man! Best of luck