opplevelse

perhaps I should have said "According to the majority of models" either way it will be bloody close. And I dont think Ike looks too bad on that WV animation. Apart from the dryness on its west side, I think it looks fairly healthy. If you look at the IR and Vis loops, it certainly shows continual improvement, unlike Gustav which never really got it together.

She is a lovely storm with expected sustained of 125knts and upt o 150knt gusts. Fortunately she will likely miss most populated areas.

Texas is ... kind of big ... Probably need a buit more info than that. Ike is likely to be pretty bloody nasty ... at least a cat 3 at landfall, perhaps a cat 4. Forecast discussion 39 just issued.

Like this one?

FYI Bouy 42001 is likely to be hit head on ... and I mean smack bang head on in about 18 hrs time ... watch this one. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001 WHat do you mean by Forecast points? The NHC home page is here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_storms.shtml Google is your friend.

Yes I have noticed that a few times ...

RAIN RAIN RAIN, That is a good graphic, but I prefer this one as it shows the wind strength sectors and is based directly on NHC data *oh and in regards to your footer I will PM you to keep it out of the thread :wacko: ) you can find it here http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Probably because your footer is so bloody annoying ... :wacko: edit: I am fairly certain it is because NOAA prevents hotlinking to lower bandwidth use? seriously, that footer does my head in!

Sorry, you are right :wacko: As was mentioned earlier, Ike is now officially a cat 2

Really? Wow ... I wonder what on earth this could have possibly meant then ... - edit: ... Probably a bit harsh -

Quite simply ... stunning presentation Click for larger

A double eyewall has started to form and accompanied with increased convection at the core ...

Interesting that there is not a lot of out flow in the south west quadrant.

Finally some good internal sat passes, shows some very heavy convection on the East side, but surprisingly no well defined eye (this image was less than 2 hrs ago) so still some reorganising yet I think kold weather

The Radar image Shows almost a double eyewall structure developing. There is no recent internal sat imagery to confirm whether this is simply a product of attenuation however.

3NM that is a tiny center of circulation! The OLS image shows a well defined eye (which is a bit surprising if it is that small ... it may be coning out to the top and only 3NM at the SFC) Ooops my bad, I missed the time stamp on the OLS image ... it is about 6hrs old, which would explain the eye. Current IR sat shots show a large CDO and possible reorganisation... will be interesting to see what reappears in the next 2-6hrs!

Ummm no the convection is far less than spectacular, it is in fact fairly ordinary. IR sat shots show cloud top temperatures, which is an indication of cloud height, which can be an indication of convection, but NOT of the strength of the convection. The 85GHz images see inside the clouds and look at rising air (i.e. real convection strength), and looking at the image below, while there are a few spots of good convection (in partic the eastern quad), it is hardly spectacular, particullarly around the core, where it is fairly weak (however the structure of the core is good). THIS is "Specacular convection" Sensationalist words are just that. Sensationalist ...

Visually Ike is looking fantastic still after over 36 hrs effec tively over land. But in terms of cnvection, it has all but stopped except near the very center and some outer bands in the NE quadrant. Still a good amount of moisture around, with no "dry" spots near the center but a lot less than in previous passes But... wind shear is still all but non existant 5-10knts max, SST's, TPW and everything else all pointing towards massive intensification ... IF it can hold itself together before it gets over water and re intensifies. As Iceberg said, it is now likely over water again, and despite the lack of convection ... god damn the structure looks good! I doubt it wont hold together no

34th warning has not changed the forecast track too much

Well latest WV sat shot shows a bit of a dry air penetration of the core, and most convection on the Western side of the core has stopped, but the core is still very compact and seems fairly stable. The next few hours will see if Ike can hold on.

I dont know where you are seeing the good convection, but this shows only quite weak / poor convection near the core (bottom left image)

Hi all I've been away down at The Belgium F1 GP in Spa-Francorchamps ... bummer Ike is looking quite good still consiering its been over land now for at least 12 hrs. A good central core of WV, and very very low shear in the GoM mean it should be in a much healthier state than Gustav was

Agreed fwoggie it was the right call to make at the time, the fact he turned out to be a bit of a lame duck has nothing to do with it ... it could have very much gone the other way. Well done for actually discussing the weather and not ambulance chasing as many of the children here appear to be doing. IMHO 1) I very much doubt that Hannah is a long long way from gustav, and I doubt she could even rob moisture! 2) I did not see that at all! The SST's were all high throughout his track?! Why do you say that? 3) I agree, but where is the evidence?

Gustav is still showing a fair bit of convection despite being over land. and is tracking NW along the coast Wind speeds are still nothing special, but rainfall is not abating. NO Will see the worst of the storm surge in the next few hours. There is still a lot of moisture around him as can be seen in the vapour shot He seems to be tracking a little more westwardly that was expected. And I am going to repeat my previous question which would otherwise get lost in the chatter ...