Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Iceni

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,392

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Iceni

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Whilst I understand what you are saying....

    If you can get down to the physics (maybe chemistry) then that also ought to be possible.

    Summary - we are no where near there yet from a 'software' point of view.

    I have spent much time looking at 'the weather' since retiring (It has always been a big interest), and some of the characteristics closely resemble  share dealing systems, with apparently 'outside'  influence having a large impact. Is this the same as a random 'butterfly' effect in our hobby/ pasttime?.

    Also, I did spend sometime working on share-dealing and trading systems, which I put to use when I retired. (more good,  though some bad), and/but they do also follow  'weekly' trends, which need to be built in the standard share models.

    Anyway probably enough on this sort of topic before the afternoon fun and games begin.

    MIA

    Not me. Roger Penrose said it.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Derecho...

    30 years of modelling, programming , analysis, technology design and implementation has left its scars on me. 

    Twenty years ago we needed more machine power.

    Now, unless we sort out the assumptions  and get them analysed correctly into mathematics  we will only magnify the errors as we push ever deeper into being able to look at ever more local detail.

    Tamara is showing where some of the current assumptions are wrong, or at least give a totally different view. .

    People on here showed how the stratosphere could affect things greatly. (10 years ago) This was incorporated into the models (though I believe is now possibly over responsive (see below)).

    The only people to gain by increasing the computing power right now are 1) computer salesmen, and 2) system design specialists who have no further ideas as to how to improve the current models.

    Incorrect assumptions ALWAYS increase volatility in output. Increased  computing power will only serve to show up any design errors.

    I appreciate that increasing the spread by the changing the input criteria, is one method of reducing any errors. But the initial 'errors' are still present, and will only serve to produce more chaos.

    I am talking about from where the models are standing today (which is much better than they were 5-10 years ago).  Spending hundreds of millions on more computing power right now will not give the same rewards as ensuring some of the 'unknowns' are fully researched and included  as regards the accuracy of the models..

    1)     Extra notes.... Take today and this graphic taken from the above (to be saved)....

     image.png.2601d1ad27281e20ce541275cf1e7ad3.png 

    The whole of even  the western hemisphere has been impacted by the the slope and shape of the high forecast to develop  over  the Bering Ocean.  Changing its inclination or intensity will dramatically change the forecast for the whole Northern Hemisphere via mechanisms previously discussed on here. Both the ECM and GFS have shown this happening over the last week. Both had to withdraw from their positions . Something is not 'spot on'.

    Will they this time? Can you tell me? I assume that this situations has come about as to their incorrectly handling the totality of the 'telecomms' signals. 

    2) As to whether the models are accurate from a scientific pov.    I cannot make any comments  (you are correct).  However they have now released documentation on the 'CC' models, which were based upon forecast models  (I  am told),  and for the previous release of them there were still around 25 assumptions which were not yet proven. If they were missing in the 'CC' models then I assume they were not in the forecast models.  - In the CC models they substituted parameters. 

    Sorry to mention the XX word banned on here  - MODS.

    So IMO opinion,   (FWIW)  there is still quite a way to go before we can say that all the assumptions (and therefore the absolutely correct science) built into the models, means that models are correct.

    Until that happens  putting in more computing power will increase chaos (not decrease). that is what my 30 odd years of experience has taught me.

    MIA

    To summarise - you cannot model a chaotic system. Stock Market is the same.

    • Like 2

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    14 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

    Wow. That is outrageous! Beautiful, but wild indeed. 

    I might have missed it, but why do our mainstream media / news never cover these extreme cold and winter conditions!? Scandinavia have had some record low temps recorded this winter. It doesn't matter that it's not in our country, because the media are all too quick to pump out days-worth of content about extreme weather elsewhere when it occurs in summer, such in Italy, Spain, Greece, etc in 2023 and 2022.

    Frustrates me that the media seem to only want to discuss extreme weather when said weather is hot and / or dry. Very one-sided narrative that fails to paint a true picture of how climate change is actually manifesting and impacting people. The lack of news on all the flooding in the UK due to the incessant rain is another example of this. 3/4 weeks solid of rain and not a peep from them. But no doubt, 3/4 weeks of dry weather and they'll be pumping out the obligatory "London to have Barcelona's climate by 2050". 

    It's really weird.

    Because it's the wrong type of snow. It's supposed to be a thing of the past… "Children will never see snow again." Said one 'expert' in 2000.

    • Like 8

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Iceni

    On Friday am I'm making a long trip up to Stanhope N. Pennines to look at a house. Just me and the dog. Will I make it up there and make it back same night?

    Nervous about the drive as it is, let alone deep snow. Hopefully it will start on Saturday. But if earlier, I'll have to cancel.

    Hurricane Matthew

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted · Edited by Iceni

    7 minutes ago, alr1970 said:

    Looks like the weather gods have spared the democrats of Miami:

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Oct07.html#item-8 

    
Hurricane Matthew is bearing down on Florida's east coast. That is where most of the Democrats in the Not-So-Much-Sunshine-Right-Now State

     

    #Harambe.

    watching over us all. 

    The Haitians ought to bill the Clinton Foundation and see if they get lucky this time. 

    Worried about my friend on Cumberland Island, tried emailing her but no reply. Perhaps she's boarded up and split, but then she'd be able to email back. So it means she's sitting tight. Brave. 

    Hurricane Matthew

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted · Edited by Iceni

    Watching Trump in NH said 127 people in Haiti had lost their lives. Thought it was going to be 'a bad one'. I've got a friend who's on Cumberland Isalnd just off the coast on the GA/FLA border St Mary's where there's a nuclear sub base. There are 3 very beautiful ante-bellum mansions on the island and one is her hotel. I'd expect they'd have guests. Don't like the way it's staying just off shore because it gets its energy from a long sea track.

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Iceni

    2 hours ago, Trom said:

    I know it's small consolation but I have to visit Wisconsin regularly in Winter (my head office is there) and it often gets down to these kind of crazy temperatures.  It's actually not much fun as you can't spend any significant time outside.   It is cool that the Mississippi freezes in the town where I visit (you can drive out cut a hole and go ice fishing).  But in pretty much writes off outdoors as a place to be.  The weather for frolicking and building snowmen it is not.

    Still the models show the strat dominating the trop forcings.  Some signs of change going forward but nothing that indicates persistent cold at the moment.  As a few posters have mentioned the synoptics actually look good at face value until you realise there's no cold near by to tap into.

     

    The Delaware River, 2007. Wow.

    image.jpeg

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Iceni

    1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

    True (as 2013 attested). Indeed, as the UKMO 3-month outlook (issued this morning, to ensure proper assimilation of the ongoing stratospheric developments) alludes, re overall temperature signal from late Feb into/through March. 

    You could include early May. My late Mum's birthday was 2nd May and it's been snowy several times, albeit on high ground  in Sussex.:cold:

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Iceni

    3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    In case by some miracle the UK gets appreciable snowfall this winter then the  technical way of seeing how much has fallen is not to wake up and see how much cover there is on the wheelie bin! lol

    Was watching CNN's coverage last night of the snowstorm in the eastern USA and apparently what they do is measure the snow every 3 hours, then remove that and then again after 3 hours measure whats accumulated and so on.

    This stops the snow from compacting which then gives a false reading. Of course in the UK snow lasting more than 3 hours in recent years has been hard to come by but if the PV ever relents then something to bear in mind!

    Exactly. This photo was taken yesterday  an hour after the snow plough went through in Princeton NJ, as you can see, it'll need another pass... My friend there says they had another 12 hours blizzard conditions to go at the time. Another problem is if the car is covered, you don't want to let it freeze or you'll damage the bodywork. 

    image.jpeg

    • Like 1

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, markyo said:

    Not sure were you get your info from,i grew up in the farming industry,trust me jan an feb are vital to have those frosts to break the ground,ploughing in september is purely for drainage purposes. All wildlife needs the cold in winter to enable a strong growth pattern come the spring,again can i say its far more complicated than just saying mild weather favours their life cycle. Really can't understand why people can't understand this.

    He probably gets it from walking around or looking out of the window. Not sure where you live, but in EA, apart from the Fens where most British veg is grown and Greens want 'left to Nature' I.e. Flooded again,  the soil is too heavy for summer seasonal crops. It's boukder clay and the short Spring/summer growing season means rape, wheat, beans etc. have to be sown and germinated the previous Autumn then left to overwinter. Otherwise the soil's too cold and doesn't warm up in time.

    Your frost breaking down soil might be true for an allotment, but the farmers have massive tractors and kit to do all the work which amateurs rely on - like I should break up my raised beds and leave for the frosts over winter to save work, but I don't have a £100k John Deere plough. Farmers do.

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...