[Model Output Discussion:]

I've heard many times people say compare like for like runs ... ie. 12z with 12z and 18z with 18z. If we remember back to yesterday the 18z also did a similar thing, and tonight's 18z is an improvement over last nights 18z during the all important timeframe.

[Model Output Discussion]

lol i laugh very much at them warnings the charts dont suggest this but i can understand why the meto would be a little worried not to get it wrong.

i think high ground maybe on wednesday.

there after i think as snowfor me suggested the turn of the west with west to northwest flow this will also be pretty chilly north alantic and greenland have had some pretty dam cold weather,

so i agree west and north west will be best after wednesday as the pressure in northern europe get shunted away.

The FAX charts show the 528 dam line not far away from the east coast and with a feature running along the channel dragging colder air on its northern flank. Admittedly, will probably not be a low level event if it materialised as is, a bit of elevation would be needed. Still, lots of time for this to change, and a lot of these changes will most likely come from the GFS with the way it has been performing recently :lol:

[Model Output Discussion]

well from them charts id laugh at the meto forecast warnings for snow they do not look like snow charts to me.

but for febuary i think its way to early to be shouting mild i think cold will be from a different direction with slightly below average temps mixed with colder interludes i cant see this winter being over without seeing some sort of sudden chage.

but if im honest right now everything is very messy or maybe even stuck.

Hmmmm, I wouldnt say laugh at the warnings. From what I can see, there will be a strong SE/ESE flow bringing up at the very least some surface air from a very cold continent. Can't really comment until we see the 850's.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Snizzle here atm and temp at -0.9. Pavements and roads were lethal this morning, people falling over everywhere, even in the city centre. My drive was like an ice rink. Can't say I've seen anything at all like this before.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

even lower levels could see 1-3cm which is surprising!

Very true. Also, could bode well for places further south in the region as we could hold onto abit more intensity as it has no hilly areas to pass to get here ... there also seems to be a small disruption running close to the east which may produce abit more intensity too. Would be quite a surprise having a few extra cm's considering the cold spell is practically finished.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Temp is -0.7 here with a dew of -1.5 so any snow will definitely be freezing over again. I wonder if there might be one or two heavier bursts towards the south of the region tomorrow, could be one or two surprises I guess.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Some Pics of the snow in Sheffield.

The city centre has a covering of a few inches still but just go out of the centre and you are greeted with scences like those below.

It's been snowing all morning / afternoon here - light to moderate. Sleet in the city centre now but still snow here, but the sort that makes existing snow melt a little now. Given the volume of snow after the warnings were downgraded, one can only imagine the scences here if the orignal warning had played out.. These should give you a real idea of just how good things still are in Sheffield (out of the city centre).

The radr's been showing nothing most of the time - maybe its something to do with Sheffield being in an ideal location in this kind of set up for organ.... (whatever its called) lift.

Pics taken around crosspool area - just past the uniy.

Sheffield 160m

Same here mate, snow not melting at all, in fact the temp is bang on at 0. Do you also have a very thick fog that has formed that seems to have left a layer of rime too on the trees?

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Have got 15cm on my back garden path and 18cm on the grass. Temp at 0.1 and snowing lightly. Quite foggy too.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Where in SE are you?

+1.6 in Anston

I'm at Intake, around 190m asl.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Temps still surpressed here in SE Sheffield at 0.2 ... very light snow continues.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Yay. Temp is finally down to bang on zero. Makes me feel a little better lol

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Heavier snow here now, looks like a bit more will be coming in from the ESE too. Temp at 0.1

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Well even though weve had some snow on and off, its more sleety now and you can hear alot of dripping!, at this rate itll have gone by morning!

I think it may just appear sleety as the ppn is very very light now. It is marginal but i'm only at 190m and the temp is 0.1 and the dew is -0.6 so should bs supportive of snow and no melting.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

can you hear dripping outside? i can ugh lol

There is a bit of dripping going on I think ... the dreaded sound !

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Temp at 0.1 here, although the ppn has nearly stopped too.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Settling again dew point dropped slightly but air temp not budging. Looks like it will get heavier again as the lights are disappearing from view to the east of us. Going to be funny u=if they reduce the warning and then we get the orginal dumping.

Seems to be the other way around here at Intake, dew point doesnt seem to be changing much (around -0.6/-0.7) but the temperature keeps dropping, down to 0.2 now.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

its turning more to snow here! so thats good news lol, need more elevation for this to settle though!

yeah, elevation could make a bit of a difference in this situation both with intensity and temps.. although the humidy is rising, the temperature seems to be dropping to dorpping at a similar rate and the net results is a steady dp at the moment!

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Surprisingly, is settling here from the small flakes, even on the roads that have been gritted quite a few times in the last few days.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Temp is at 0.6 with dew of -0.55 with heavier ppn on the way by the looks of things. Hopefully temps and dews don't rise too much otherwise it will be getting very knife edge.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Yes no problem.

On my bench there was 8" of snow yesterday night (not CM, sorry Im still in imperial) this morning at 11am there was 2". Ive measured it! lost 6" over night, currently 43 degrees still think there should be some light snow tongight.

All the icicles have gone now too

Don't see how it is 43 degrees (fahrenheit I'm presuming, so 6.1 celcius) ... I'm in Sheffield (albeit maybe a little higher) it is 1.0 with only a slight thaw.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

The first day above freezing in a fair number of them here. The temp is 1.2 with a dew of -1.35. It was obvious to see a backtrack to the BBC and MetO forecasts coming as that sort of ppn intensity was never shown on the models. Without the intensity either, this would have lead to the more marginality that we are currently seeing in many areas atm.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

You can never reliably tell what will fall from the sky in these setups as they are pretty marginal. It'll be a case of waiting to see what conditions are like just before the precipitation arrives. Im always sceptical of of these frontal precipitation events from the east as they are more often than not rain or sleet near to the coast and low ground in eastern parts. Its a forecaster's nightmare because out of the typical signs you use whether to predict rain or snow you get some that are favourable and others that are not. As it stands, 850hPa temperatures and 850-1000hPa thickness levels look very good, but the zero degree level is around 450metres which isnt so great. As John mentions the 500-1000hPa thickness levels look poor but arent really too important in this scenario as the warm air associated with the warm front tends to ride ahead over the top and not affect things too much further down. I think Id be much happier if the airflow was more stagnant beforehand as we'd get some good sub-zero temperatures and less mixing of the air. Theres also the issue of if the precipitation is heavy enough, GFS says yes, NMM says no. If its light then its more likely to be rain or sleet as that zero degree level wont fall.

It really is a nowcast situation, because as it stands theres really no agreement whether the precipitation will actually make it this far north or not, just some 24 hours out!

From my experience of using the NMM model, it does often seem to underdo the amount and intensity of any ppn that occurs.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Lookis like a miss for south east sheffield despite the 700 wind vectors showing it would be a direct hit.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

6inches pushing 7

And you're complaining? lol ... the real easterly component to the wind is only just starting to kick in.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

I think look norths prediction of snow may be slightly wrong again with saying the showers will push into south yorkshire. That large stream of showers is making landfall in a very similar place as the NMM model suggests and this shoes it effecting north and west yorkshire rather than south yorkshire ... let's wait and see. Temp is -2.2 and dp is -5.5.