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La Bise

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Posts posted by La Bise

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    You did, a little frame at the end after an endless sequence of storm pictures with dramatic music to hammer the (erroneous) point again and again and again.... Stop playing dumb MB, you know perfectly well what you are doing with that video, your "candid appraisal" sounds about as sincere as an insurance salesman pointing out to the small prints after refusing a claim...

    What bugs me is the way you whine about Coast comments when the guy did his outmost to be fair to you all the way up to the end of your forecast period and put lots of work in it.

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I've fount very interesting to see how people dealt with the situation on the model thread. Despite a)repeated comments by the Met guys that models do struggle with that kind of setup and B) the events of November/December when another block situation proved very hard to forecast, there seems to be a large consensus that modelisations do really represent a fair picture of what might happen. Which might be right in some situations but in this case, some much depends on tiny variables that human input, the capacity to forecast rather than interpret model is very much a must. That's for me is the main difference between enthusiastic amateurs and the Met chaps, that capacity to call upon human judgement much more effectively.

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Although we diverge at opposite angles when it comes to the philosophical core of the issue (deterministic vs chaotic), it has been a pleasure reading your interventions VP. Good luck in your quest, even if it is not achievable it's best to give it a jolly good go if so is your inclination (I have my own quests, almost certainly futile, but this what defines us as human beings, our capacity to overcome rationnal to follow our dreams).

    Wonder what happend to MB, maybe on the blower with the Wise Ancients asking what went wrong...?

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So chaos theory is an essential part of your religious value system? Those appear to be moral, rather than scientific arguments against finding patterns out of chaos.

    I know this is off topic; it's the end of the thread!

    Erm...I'm not arguing against looking for patterns in a chaotic system, that's what most scientists are striving to do, I'm arguing against the idea that everything fit in a nice little straighjacket with an explanation for everything if only you look hard enough. This presupposes a kind of deterministic order that essentially turns us into pawns in some kind of game. Which is where the emergence of chaos theory has been an important step into moving science away from any religious/superstitious hangover.

    Naff all to do with religious belief systems...

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Before:

    I could be proved wrong, but I cannot see how this forecast will not come to pass. If this forecast is not closely fulfilled, I shall spend an awful long time probably trying to work out where it all went wrong!

    If my level of expectation of the 12 Nov ’10 prediction was say 75% positive; my expectation for this forecast is considerably higher.

    After:

    The "method" clearly needs refining (I knew this from the start, before I published any predictions) and I needed "feedback" from Nature to tell me what refinements I needed to make; that was the whole purpose of publishing specific and detailed Experimental Forecasts, which have now provided me with the clear variance information that I needed and sought at the outset.

    :whistling:

    RJS, you totally misrepresent what chaos theory is, it is not the void before a discovery is made, chaos is very much the essence of life, the universe and everything (thank you Douglas Adams...), people working on chaotic systems, be it the weather or our very own body, do try to find patterns but, ultimately, not everything can be explained nor predicted (itself a rather repugnant notion if you think about it...)

    Or rather it can but then we enter the realm of religion and mysticism....

    A highly recommend read would be this:

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Impossibility-Limits-Science/dp/0099772116

    Chaos theory is one of the great advances of science, before it, there was very much a sense that a very strict cause to effect paradygm existed (Newton famously said that if he knew the place of every particle in the universe, he would be able to predict the future), equally amongst religious leaders as scientists, now there is a far more fluid acceptance of uncertainty and indeed limits.

    Chaos theory ulimately was a step forward in freeing us of the dictatorship of God, of revelaed truth, of us being enslaved in some kind of deterministic universe, ruled by recurring patterns as if we were automatons without any concept of free-will.

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A couple of points:

    - MB gave a very precise forecast and indicated a very high degree of confidence. Had it been a more general pattern forecast, I doubt there would have been much criticism. Live by the sword, die by the sword or something along those lines...

    - No explanation other than something straight out of a New Age pamphlet about the method. Contrary to what some seem to assume, I'm pretty open minded about new ideas but I do resent being thrown a few vapid explanations that seem to be completely at odds with everything we know about our atmosphere and indeed life in general. I did not, nor did any of the sceptics come up with those statements that seem to be completely glossed over in favour of an "everything is possible" approach. I've highlighted them in a previous post.

    No one does forecast as precise and as far in time as MB has done using conventionnal methods, demanding of the sceptics to put up or shut up in some kind of competition is neither here nor there. It would be a bit like asking people doubting someone saying he can fly to jump themselves out of the building and do better...

    I've had an interest in many things people, some that would even have some of MB's biggest supporters wince in disbelief, and one recurring problem that crops up when you investigate an anomalistic subject is that of "knowledge by arcane", someone claims to holds an essential truth that would give an explanation for the anomaly studied and much more beside but refuses to divulge anything but tantalising and/or bewildering snippets. That leaves the investigator in a quandary as nothing can be tested rigorously. The investigation, even if some or the entirirty of the anomaly is hard to explain in more conventionnal terms, generally dies as we are then in a situation which you could call as "revelation truth" and we enter another realm together, that of belief and faith statements.

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Woah, can we leave Einstein out of this please...? AB published many papers, for peer review by his fellow mathematicians and they quickly understood the validity of his theories as he worked within the field. Nothing to do with the current situation here.

    (Got your pm OMM, back to you asap)

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Excellent OldMetMan, I'm glad to read that.

    I'd love to reply but I've promised to behave (not as the result of a complaint I hasten to add, my own decision). If you are really, really keen ( you never know...) to hear as to why I think you are completely wrong re your comment about belief system, message me otherwise, good day to you Sir :good:

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Call my cynical, but how many of the MB fan's club member here are fond of calling into question the competence and/or integrity of meteorologists and climatologists at the Met Office? Maybe the Met guys/gals should start to use tea leaves or frog's entrails, no doubt they will be lauded for their bravery and open mindedness... :whistling:

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It is quite incredible to read that MB high quackery is put alongside the work of GP as FFO aludes above...:wallbash:

    GP works his socks off, alongside many others, to put in a place a method that could indeed represent an important step into predictive meteorology, working with observable data, published material, an entire body of work that can be reviewed.

    Obviously it is the same that some fantasist that believes he is tapping into some ancient civilisation advanced knowledge and that, with time, could predict every event on Earth, as some kind of God of Nature.

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