La Bise
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Posts posted by La Bise
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Take what you say re planetary influences but over on UKWW he implicitly stated that he didn't use those variables - I would have thought that they had a greater bearing than anything. Will just have to wait for him to give us his answer. Like you I 'm curious as to how it pans out but hope that he's wrong, bearing in mind where I live
Ah, I could have sworn there was an astrological subtext to this...Numerology maybe then? Maybe our man will give us a few more clues (I was going to check on that piston heads forum but judging by K1000 comment, the clues seem to lead to cul-de-sac.
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Stars/Planets alignements Candice, there is a vast body of work at disposal, it's cyciical, minimize significantly the number of difficult variables, it has been going for 5 millenia and with modern tools, producing charts for any given day is not particularly complicated. The only downer is availability of met data if the alignement does not recur often (which provides a handy reason to explain a failure...).
That's my own take on this new method, with also his liking for BFTP and RJS who also use a similar method (despite being very coy about it, I think it's what's implied in BFTP clues when I asked for an explanation) as a further indicator.
Anyhow, I'm most curious to see how all this pans out.
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Interesting forecast, hopefully it will never come to pass.
The number 24 is significant in so much as it is related to something that affects all life on Earth, the Circadian rhythm, well worth a read about it, fascinating stuff. The Egyptian were the first to divide the day in 24 hours it seems based on archeological findings. The number 12 significance has Biblical origins in our culture. Numbers do often have mystical meaning associated to them, as human being we do tend to seek patterns, an evolutionnary byproduct when our ancesters had mainly their wits to survive on and evolved something truly unique to us human, self-aware sentience. To this day we like to ascribe meanings to our chaotic universe, our brains simply don't cope very well with disorder it seems hence the rise of religions, superstitions, etc, etc
Ancient knowledge is often mentionned in hushed tones as if our ancesters had a far deeper understanding of our planet than our current civilisation. They also worshipped an incredible amout of divinities, practiced human sacrifice, thought the sun was a tiny warm blob in the sky, that stars were angels flying, that the Earth was flat, etc, etc, etc. Let's not descend into mystical worship of our past, we have an exponentially greater understanding of how our planet works, how our mind works, how our body works, we would appear as nothing short of gods to someone who lived 5000 years ago.
I suspect method X is related to astrology (12...although it should be 13 really if "ancient knowledge" was really taken into account).
Anyhow, interesting read, you should contact Fortean Times or even propose an article, that's the kind of stuff they go for (excellent magazine, I suscribe to it).
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I would be interested in verifiable evidence for that assertion that lunar and solar cycles are drivers for the NAO, AO and the likes, you seem to have become very assertive about this in recent months yet there is scant evidence to be found in academic studies (El Ebro observatory in Spain did a research which came up with some interesting results, particularly in term of rain) . This is a typical take on lunar influence:
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Interesting read John, a much simpler form of it is a standard part of mountain walking manuals actually, to help us judge what conditions we can expect on the tops compared to the valley floor in respect to the various types of air masses floating around.
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Thanks GP. That was actually the most interesting part of your forecast (in term of my own gratification) and it struck me we could have a repeat of last year which was incredibly dry for a long time (spending a lot of time in the great outdoors, it was quite striking to see the effects on the countryside/hills/mountains but farmers were rather concerned....).
Another question, possibly one going beyond your remit but your forecast introduce "milder" conditions by january. This would preclude much of any snow related fun at low levels but with a likely NW direction for our ppn, would I be wrong to assume upland in the West and North West could see some good conditions at higher levels? (Baring in mind obviously the general lack of ppn the pattern you envisage would cause)
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GP, when you published your forecast and in some of your comments before, you mentionned a rather dry outlook for later in the winter. Is that something that still stands or do you see new variables than could change that?
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There is one glaring problem when dealing with alternative forecasts method without control, access to the whole range of conventionnal methods so how can the veracity of the alternative method can be verified? Up to what point that alternative method plays a part as opposed to good knowledge of orthodox methodology?
Short of locking up in a room those people, with only their chosen alternative method to forecast, no one can be sure...
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I'm more inclined to think he is into astro-meteorology...
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Mods delete this at your ease but I just want to say "I love you" to GP...
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GP, if you got it right, I'll be a happy bunny, as a hiker and budding wildcamper, dry and cold is the holy winter grail for me...
Excellent point by Essan re media/MetO, just have a look at the Daily Mail take on GP's forecast actually...
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Yup, sign me up too. I've got a new tent (and probably sleeping bag)to test this winter and I need proper conditions (snow storm one day/-15c the day after....would be perfect) up the moors...
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I spend a lot of times in areas that are generally very wet (eg Peak District) and normally, I do so with wateproof boots, gaiters, even if the sun is out as the ground is boggy, peaty and muddy (sometimes all at the same time...) but at the moment my gaiters are in a bag at home and unless rain is forecast, I put on my mesh trainers that are like sponge yet my feet remain dry.
I spent 4 hours traipsing around the bogs on the moorlands above Tintwistle (Longendale) a week ago and my feet were dry, despite wearing those trainers, which is highly unusual. Today I walked past the reservoirs above Whalley Bridge and they don't look in great shape.
It has even affected me in term of what amount of water I carry, I normally have a filter bottle (Travel Tap) and simply refill at streams or tarns but a lot of them are dried out and I've found myself having to chase a spring on a number of times or filter some pond water (no concern about the filter but dirty water clogs it quicker). I even recently camped up Derwent Edge and pitched on a dried peat bog, very confy as it happens like a memory foam mattress but the wind blew dust inside my tent, it felt like I camped by a beach...which is not what you expect in that part of the world...
And that's in a fairly wet part of the country...
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some without any top on, males unfortunately
One of the reasons I'm never that bothered with summer in the UK...
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Incredibly dry on the hills as well, even the dreaded bogs on Red Moss in the Yorkshire Dales have shrunk to nowt. Most streams are bone dry as well.
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A shield to block anything coming from the SW quadrant....
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But isn't Atlantic driven weather an harbinger of constant depressions bashing at the UK? How long will the benign cloud and drizzle conditions you describe before we get lashed by incessant rain and winds...?
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There was something about this on the BBC website recently Stephen, possibly related to the Maunder Minimum which has started in the mid 80's that brings a cooling across northern europe where the kind of blocking we had this winter is the strongest but globally the planet is still warming.
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To pick up on John's comment, try to go skiing for a few days in January in sunny weather if you want a natural tan...
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Yeah, but I had the snow reflection to contend with as well
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Indeed, forgot to apply my suncream when playing in the Welsh mountains yesterday and my cheeck feel a bit warm today. Nothing too unpleasant but a reminder that now, a day in the sun means protection.
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Scirocco defo comes from Africa. It is quite striking when it blows in the mountains in winter, it turns the snow pale reddish due to the sand it carries
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Sorry John, I have no idea why it came out so small!
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Always a pleasure to read your update NSSC, I know that when you post something upbeat, it means there is no SW muck on the way. For the western seaboard the possible outcome is quite good, possibility of some frosty nights if skies are clear enough I guess....?
Better Than The Models ?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
MB - a few points, some of your comments do need commenting (certainly from my end) - I do understand it's not related to a met issue but the very essence of you method encompasses mattters going way beyond that...
- We pretty well know how the Pyramids were built, with lots of money and specialised labourers (not slaves actually), the scale is awesome even by modern standards but the method is not particularly complex. It's a staple of crypto-historian but like ETH ufos, pretty much dead in the water...
- If everything is predictable, by all means, provide me with winning numbers for the lottery or some football scores and whilst you are at it, how come you do not have used that knowledge yourself to free yourself even more for your studies from base material concerns...? I would love give up working now and then and dedicate myself to walk the hills, climb mountains and camp in the wilderness...
- Observe nature from a higher sphere? Faster and better means of comminucations? I'm all for Shamanism but the methods back then were first and foremost symbolic and attained through hallucinogenics, amongst people whose understanding of the world was unsphosticated to say the least so verification of their wonders is bound to be slightly haphazard... They might have had some insight into those wondruous Laws of Nature but that did not prevent most of them living short, brutish, illness ridden lives that would have a hard drinker/smoker in Glasgow look a healthy old man...
Jon Mitchell fan btw MB?