La Bise
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Posts posted by La Bise
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Nothing indicates there would be something better replacing the high though, if the Atlantic pushes through, it's SWlies all the way and with them there is zero chance of anything seasonnal (unlike the chance of some inversion cold with the high in situ).
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Glad you enjoyed my home town
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Isolated Frost, Geneva avg day/night temp in Jan is 1c, 24c in July...I like that! Do bare in mind autumn in gva is weeks upon weeks of grey skies under inversion clouds but you got mountains nearby to go up to gaze at the sun and the huge "fog sea" above the lake and the city.
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I think you might be confusing Shetlands with Scilly... !
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Excellent, thanks GP, just published something along those lines yesterday for my readers...Glad to see you in agreement
Inversion cold should prove a handy exit door for those who predicted severe cold coming at some point in November -"Look, it's ice there!"
Models - groundhog day, just copy and paste any comment for the last weeks. The pattern is there to last and I fear what will replace it is zonal.
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Polar maritime are handy if you like walking in the high place of the NW (which as it happens, I do...so I would have my fix of wintry weather up there) otherwise the only cold weather you'll get is thanks to an inversion (if we take into account the two likeliest scenarios thrown by the models).
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A nice day for walk in the dales of the White Peak, atmospheric mist late in the morning leading to hazy sunshine. The smell of damp grass, the faint whiff of rotting leaves and vegetation and a fresh breeze when we topped up after leaving the valley floor. A lovely autumn day. Walking back to Hartington, at dusk, the cold damp air quickly had us zipping up our jackets and the smell of woodsmoke in the air was a last sensory add-on.
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I agree, good meta-analysis there Iceberg. It's exactly the way I look at things myself, not having the skills to do so myself. It certainly gives me a better idea who is day-dreaming and who is onto something when it comes to LRF.
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I am a bit at loss as to the thinking behind those "pattern reset" wished by some and how zonality would be a step towards a colder setup? It's not as if we don't have countless examples of how entranched that pattern can become with nothing wintry on offer bar the odd wet snow shower on top of the highest hills.
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Oh same here, I do not want a zonal setup, the current setup can always lead to inversions which are lovely rather than mild rain and wind which leads to nothing but more mild rain and wind (pm incursions are pointless most of the times unless you fancy a bracing hill walk in a snow storm,which can be fun...)
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Re GP comments on the Model thread...Is the outlook for December mild as in repeat and rinse of the current November synoptics or do we switch to a more zonal setup. To me it seems we stay in the situation of being piggy in the middle but...
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If my interactions with work colleagues about forecasting are a guide (and I'm really not much of a nerd about it...), people found the whole nitty-gritty side of it an unbelievable bore although they like the charts as they look colorful. I doubt they could have made a programm to keep the hobbyists interested without losing the interest 95% of the general public...They also found my monologues about backpacking tents very weird but they enjoy the pictures...
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A timely reminder we are in November today, up on Bleaklow in the Peak District. Sun or no sun, it was quite nippy up there with a cooling breeze. Last part of the walk after sunset was with insulation. Gritters out on the roads and a lovely wintry sunset added to the whole thing. Lovely.
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Not that sure Aaron, I'd put more money on places like Edale, surrounded by hills and where wind should be nil. Shap is quite exposed to any breeze.
Then again, cloud cover could scupper that...
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I'd expect the Express to blame immigrants for a failed forecast...They do for everything else after all...
Sometimes I wonder who reads the Express...
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426 posts on Netweather and you haven't noticed PC is merely a bad joke to most people on here...
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Posting that LRF are a waste of time is a far bigger waste of time yet it is still being done...
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I do not with great interest a return to dry weather, whilst it does not do much for day time temperatures and indeed ppn, it does bring more frosts. If November were to be along those lines, it would be in mark contrast with previous Novembers (which will be good news for people in Cumbria amongst other places I'd wager...)
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Dry and cold is perfect for me, in fact the entire forecast so far sounds right up my street with a bit more ppn for the latter part of the lrf. The last thing we'd need is yet another monsoon november...
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Got you Aaron, so really this is yet another example of the Warmist Conspiracy, they craftily drew a map of Greeland in summer whilst the older map was based on winter conditions?
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I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say CH, that map makers are making this up? It certainly is a powerful image to see the two Greenland maps...
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Cripes, do you think he is friend with that chap who used the wisdom of the ancients to predict mega-storms (and how the govt should be told and do something about it...) and kept us amused for a while earlier in the year...?
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Another one cheering on Roger for those dates...
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Quite an effort by Downpour, maybe he should follow his own advice and go discuss London weather only somewhere else and let this thread be UK wide, as are its contributors...
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well, GP pretty much confirms my concerns. Being a hill-walker, I will come across some wet snow at some point, I doubt any of you will see a flake anytime soon. Zonal is coming back, anyone who sees potential cold is a very optimistic chap.