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rbw

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    Ice Days

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I hear the term ice day banded around - I would have thought this referred to days where the temperature doesn't get above freezing, but it seems it may refer to the mean temperature being below freezing - can anyone confirm what the exact definition is, please

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Blimey the moaners have woken up this morning haven't they, smile.gif

    You can drag a horse to water but you can't make it drink, equally you can show 1000-850 thickness charts, Ensemble precip rates, NAE models (the 06Z only goes upto 06 on Tuesday but the snow coming into the SW is unmistakable), be only 1or2 days into a very long cold spell and people will still moan about lack of snow, lack of cold, nothing on the horizon etc.

    We have a precip event for most of the SW starting just over 48 hrs away !.

    Yes - but it depends where in the SW you are - virtually nothing forecast for Gloucestershire

    R

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    For those who don't remember much about the January 1985 setup, here's some charts which show similarities with the upcoming synoptics:

    http://www.wetterzen...00119850107.gif

    Cold NE'ly, high sinking from the NW.

    http://www.wetterzen...00119850111.gif

    High over the UK, interestingly a little further south than the models currently show.

    http://www.wetterzen...00119850114.gif

    High drifted N, giving very similar charts to what the models are frequently showing at around T+168.

    http://www.wetterzen...00119850117.gif

    High retrogessed NW to Greenland (interestingly along the lines of what Kold Weather mentioned) with slightly less cold air heading in from SE.

    http://www.wetterzen...00119850123.gif

    The later progression of Jan '85 had the lows push in from the SW, but these temporarily led to a cold NW'ly with snow showers for northern and western areas.

    http://www.wetterzen...00119850202.gif

    It turned mild with westerly and south-westerly winds into February 1985.

    http://www.wetterzen...00119850209.gif

    then towards mid Feb 1985 another easterly episode resulted.

    That last bit also highlightss something that was going through my mind when reading Glacier Point's teleconnections analysis towards February, suggesting the real possibility of a very mild one. If we have the blocking patterns getting a shift on, and some bursts of very mild air and pools of very cold air shifting around the Northern Hemisphere, it doesn't necessarily mean the UK can't get hit by cold pools from time to time, so while much milder for February looks a safe bet, mild and snowless is somewhat less so.

    Interesting - whilst very much a weather enthusiast at the time I don't recall much that was spectacular in Jan 85 - I guess there wasn't a lot of snow around so I didn't really notice

    R

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Why all the moaning? I am in LE2 and everything is White. Very pretty new year dusting and it's still snowing. Leicestershire folk look out your window

    Leicestershire isn't the only snowless place - none down here in Gloucester either apart from a very slight dusting on a few occasions. Temperature is even +0.2C at present

    R

    Model Chat And Moods

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I read a lot here about 80s style winters - whereas I recall nothing exceptional about the 80s winters apart from 81/2 which in my mind was a left over from the 70s. Now to me the late 70s were something special or was that just the excitement of youth. I seem to regularly recall snow fall of 4 to 6 inches whilst I was at secondary school and I frequently recorded low temperatures (sadly my records don't exist from those days).

    Since then we had a big snowfall at the end of April 1981 followed by an enormous one in Jan 82 with temps of

    -18C. We then didn't have anything more than 2 inches right up to last February. With regards temperatures there have been quite a few cases of -9C

    Was there a difference between the 70s and 80s in weather patterns or is it me?

    R

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