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Everything posted by BarnetBlizzard
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It was always forecast to start off being very marginal however I wouldn't give up hope yet. As you can see on https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.9;-1.2;5&l=freezing the freezing level is around 400m in north London at the moment but is expected to drop to 100m/0 in the next hour or so as the winds wrap round to a more northerly direction.
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Clouds building and darkening here, also a slight increase in precip through the spine of the country. Maybe it might start to kick off within the next hour?- 2,726 replies
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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Made this account 8 years ago! I now live somewhere else! I would not say -4 to -5 guarantees rain, especially with slack winds and heavy precip. Whether it settles on wet ground etc is another question. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A consistent upgrade would also be nice! What I like about this run is that the upgrade is occurring around day 5-7 rather than day 10-12, therefore has less time to downgrade. Of course the upper air temps would be a bit lower in an ideal world but with slack winds at times and heavy precip about then snow somewhere would be more likely than not. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 6z shows second low turning up a lot quicker with better heights behind it. Could be a good run this one. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pub run looking good thus far. Slightly better heights out west, slightly better northerly. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much better from the 12z, not as good as yesterday but better than this mornings 6z. UKMO better still. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
How is it moving a lot better? The 6z shows less of everything -cold, snow and prospects for a reload. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If you are looking for settled, chilly weather then the GFS 6z is great news. Anyone that wants anything remotely exciting will be disappointed. Big let down for me after yesterdays great output. Hope its wrong but the GFS has been the trend-setter this winter. Lets see what the rest of the day brings but a back track from the GFS is pretty unlikely. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z looks like an upgrade at the moment. Slightly better ridge, better heights over Greenland with more energy going south east. Lets see what the rest of the run brings. -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
BarnetBlizzard replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
andddd a bit of an upgrade for next wednesday. Wait until tuesday morning before getting too downbeat, things will change. -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
BarnetBlizzard replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No downgrades for me, latest gfs ensembles still showing 10-12th feb as our best chance of snow. Quite a few showing coldish uppers making their way down the country: -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
BarnetBlizzard replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is anyone else having a look at the GFS 6z ensembles? They look pretty nice to me- especially for 10-12th Feb where a lot of the runs show runners taking a more southerly track- dragging colder air from north into the UK. If there is going to be a surprise snow event anytime soon- its gunna be in this period. Oh yeah and this is day 6-8 not day 10. Edit: uppers are not particularly cold, but you never know.... -
Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Isn't that what model watching is though- looking for potential that could produce weather scenarios which appeal to you. -
Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For me, that chart shows a lot of potential... -
Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Slight improvement on the 12z GFS at 132 hours- a little more heights in the Atlantic extending a little further north. -
Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
BarnetBlizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You take that GFS chart way too literally. It is by no mean accurate. If you want to look at precipitation type and amount in more detail then there are several good options on a site like Meteociel.