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Tn9

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TN9

    1 hour ago, TEITS said:

     Froze were the Days I'm not having a go at those who use teleconnections but sometimes the acronyms SSW, MJO do grate on me. 

    Let me put it this way. I would say on average we would see several occasions during the winter months when a SSW and MJO look favourable for a potential cold spell in the near future. Sometimes these positive signals will occur many times during the winter months.

    Now lets look at what I have experienced since joining the forum. Feb 2005 cold spell, Dec 2009, Dec 2010, Jan 2013, Feb 2018. I haven't seen any significant snow falls or cold spells since 2018. So that's a hell of a lot of positive signals that resulted in sweet FA. I don't recall the 2009,2010 cold spells being predicted on here and appeared at +384 on the GFS and unusually counted down to 0. The Met O did predict these cold spells though as I remember many on here being puzzled by the Met O LRF mentioning well below average temps.

    Still my own predictions are even worse. 

    Maybe a lots changed TEITS,cant put my finger on it exactly but like you say ,it doesnt seem to matter what happens else where ,say SSW for example ,maybe one in four chance for us here a gooden that is ,we might have a couple of fleeting snow days out of it  before everything is swept away ,i think alot is  our position as country ,it dont help matters ,if you have a wavy jet ,its more likely straight a a die here ,full on and only time is early winter  or early spring ,because temp variations ,its def ( my opinion) to do with too  much temp difference it  will overide anything else to keep jet strong and over the  Atlantic is where its most likely to have a field day  ...:(

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TN9

     Kent Blizzard we have these days ,dry spells and wet spells ..its usually few weeks of no rain or a week or heavy rain that floods places etc ,no middle ground (or high ) lol ,people throw their dingys out or dummies ,but thats what ive mostly seen happen over my 56 years of life ( climate change ? ) dont know ?  but it seems all or nothing ,extremes of both 

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

     Lauren surprised? If we have a cold month or a joker in the pack it will be april ,which is why it upsets everyone ,maybe end of March, gfs keeps toying with us ,but next run  is so so different from the previous that its comically nuts ,beyond a week im referring to, it still got the tabs on the seven day but its usually pretty good  at beyond that, makes me think its got a  signal it cant quite work out ,but months that are ment to be this or that are long gone 

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

     alexisj9 this is  in met offices own words ...

    It will bring a band of rain, sleet and snow which will push north on Thursday. The heaviest snowfalls are expected wherever the boundary of cold and mild air is...huh??

    They have multiple models, stations,ships planes etc etc ,plus intelligent experienced personnel,even a supercomputer 

    So next they say ...

    It’s from Thursday that the snow risk becomes potentially impactful, as mild air attempts to move back in from the south, bumping into the cold air and increasing the chance of snow where the two systems meet..which they havent a clue 

    Ill give them a hundred percent forecast ...it wont be kent ..i know you know ..:(

     

     

     

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    there's not a lot going on really is there ,till valentines, then gfs only plays with it ,its caught in two minds ,and it seems to be slipping away on consistency, its like  it cant (high) slip from the north ,north west north east  ,the vortex   cant  muster a  straight northerly before the next is steaming in ,or the high repositions over bay of Biscay again,that seems our options ..A or B .  

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TN9

    And if we  go by next two or so weeks ( model wise ) we are caught between the devil and the  deep blue sea neither here or there if you like exciting weather that is ,nothing ness ,but cant please everyone can you ,SSW,el nino ,la nina ,doesnt really change our winter does it  lol ,same sort of scenario most of the time ,but if you could stop the atlantic meridional overturning circulation it would solve our non cold winters but it could be a self leveler anyway as more melt less flow etc ,but thats for the  future  ,doesnt help no snow now does it . 😞

    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    @lassie23 thats whats really the problem ,to much temp variation, thats ( if you like colder winter weather) ,its been a poor winter for snow ( so far ) but when march and sun pops its head over the artic ,we will get our high in right place bit to late but it can produce but it does even seem  a strat warm  has trouble positioning a high or block to our advantage, the vortex is and will always be there ,and the temp variation at our level seems to overide strat warming to a degree ( excuse the pun) but our position is hard at best of times ,we had a day or two  of snow  so cant complain ,but you have to if you could run amok ,or amoc to cool every thing down ,if that stops we are in ,fridgid ..if the vortex or deep lows jet  etc are any where its in the north atlantic ,its where it likes to be 

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TN9

    2 hours ago, MAF said:

    love a feel-good story amongst all the doom and  gloom ones currently 

    edb00520-b6d1-11ee-ad84-7dea476ac991.jpg

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn 'Dead' owl wakes up in car footwell after rescue

    WWW.BBC.CO.UK
    A driver picked up the owl to give it a dignified send-off but was shocked to later hear rustling.

     

    i did. Few years  ago now  when i was working  for environment agency doing flood defence work  at Harty ferry near Faversham, Kent side  not the island side ,oare i guess really ,we locked  machines in the  compound for weekend and i was walking to car ,i see a gull sitting all still on its own on beach ,so it looked not well i thought and expected it to fly or at least walk away but it just stayed put, so i picked it up soaking and shivering and thought the same as that bloke did ,its going to die ,so i put it in footwell and drove back to Tonbridge but didn't expect it to be alive in morning ,left it some water cooked it chips beans any thing really ,lucky missus was away at her mums for weekend with our littlen ,because in morning ,it was sitting on back of sofa looking better but not right well come the evening it was chaos ,in full flight mode it was massive ,took up whole lounge .s**t every where had more grub sunday ,got it box monday morning and dropped him back to Faversham ,tide was out ,hundreds  of gulls out on mud flats ,opened box its out ..walked down pepples ,just as he joined hundreds of others he looked back ,i cried me eyes out ,dont take one  home if you dont want you house to  look like  a bombs hit it .they are massive indoors .but happy that he or she was ok 

    • Like 4
    • Insightful 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Minus 6 in tonbridge this morning top of west kingsdown minus three, all topsey turvy  ,sinking air i guess ,other than a windy spell  cant see much winter weather at all can any of you ? Suppose, if you like a mild dry second  half of jan and bit of feb then your over the moon ,but it to me it  isnt fun  ,just nothingness ,any way enjoy the wind its about all thats going to happen for a few weeks 

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by TN9

    2 hours ago, Justin1705 said:

    Who knows, the met seem to forecast the opposite a week out with such confidence 🤣 why they don’t just wait until 48-72 hours before I don’t know. There were and still are, models showing strong winds across the board into London and S+E It’s like the fella telling everyone last week that it was most likely to see disruptive significant snow in the south, a week later, because our variety in ensembles, it didn’t happen. I can understand the high impact low risk side, but when the models aren’t in agreement why would they even highlight potential events a week before knowing full well it’s most likely subject to change. I can see that warning being extended eastwards, as per there normal adjustments.

    Thats spot on ,i can see an iranian shooting a rifle in Afghanistan but snow in Kent, na ,beyond me im afraid.. ps ..i think its beyond us all tbh   😞

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Polaris said:

    Watching Look East last night and they had a whole segment on this so called cold spell.

    Temps of -2c and a gritter lorry for frost. Look east described it as an Icy Cold period.

    Other countries must laugh and laugh at us. 

    I guess anything to fill a news bulletin to keep up the narrative 

    Theres geezer i know in buffalo, new york  ( state of ) he said it is at the moment a proper state ,so he wouldnt laugh at us ,he said if snow was equally distributed, we would all be laughing  ive got or had enough already and ive had it up to here ( pointing to his head ) yous lot  can willingly have a couple of  foot of ours then litrally we would all be happy as such ,i said we are gagging for it here ,well he said enough is enough ..give it a couple of weeks and you would have had  enough of it ,on my life thats the truth ,bit like wealth really, nothing is ever equal is it 😞

    25 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Still just rain here, wish I lived a bit higher, it's probably snow in Whitfield, if it's snow in kingsdown 

    What you saying is its a downer ..:)

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